NL100 ZOOM - bad river in 3b pot
Posted by Hova
Posted by
Hova
posted in
Low Stakes
NL100 ZOOM - bad river in 3b pot
BN: $107.63 (Hero)
SB: $202.74
BB: $290.76
UTG: $134.74
HJ: $201.51
CO: $197.20
SB: $202.74
BB: $290.76
UTG: $134.74
HJ: $201.51
CO: $197.20
only 27 hands on villain. 31/23/7.7 so far
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
4
A
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $2, SB raises to $6.50, BB folds, Hero calls $4.50
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $2, SB raises to $6.50, BB folds, Hero calls $4.50
Preflop seems standard with pot/stack ratio
Flop
($14.50)
A
5
J
(2 Players)
SB bets $9,
Hero calls $9
no other play here
Turn
($32.50)
A
5
J
4
(2 Players)
SB bets $21,
Hero calls $21
Could potentially jam this turn, but I decided to just call to keeps bluffs in villains range
River
($74.50)
A
5
J
4
Q
(2 Players)
SB bets $166.24, and is all in
Unfortunately KT now gets there and KQ should no longer continue betting and AQ overtook us. So, What do we do on this river?
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I would prefer to 4b here. Eventough we dont have any 3b/4b stats, I assume that villain likes to play hands since he plays 31 23, small sample but still, its a spot where villain might 3b us a lot because we minopen. We have a good blocker, a4 doesnt play that easy with 1 highcard and 1 low card. 4betting prevents a situation like this one. He should give us credit for our first 4b.
As played, flop call, could ship turn, I dont think he would keep on bluffing when if he bluffs flop and turn here and we protect our hand vs 67, gutshots and hearts.
I think now we have to fold on the river. We basicly rep ax and maybe jx.
hmmm, i might be inclined to simply call down. His 3bet range is widest SBvBTN and although he may have KT, his wide preflop 3bet range + his aggression means he will have plenty of pure bluffs (low pocket pairs) and some random broadway that isnt AQ/AJ/KT
i'm not sure about 4betting this hand with my BTN range but then it depends how you construct your 4bet/flatting ranges BTN versus SB/BB etc it also depends how SB constructs his 3bet range, does he play 3bet/fold out the small blind? does he flat some hands?
If KQ did double barrel i see no reason for villain not to fire the river. Since your range is likely Ace rag or a stubborn KJ/JT. KQ is a great hand to use to block some of the nut outs
do note whether villain usually shoves or makes a big bet in future triple barrel situations. sometimes there is a bet size tell there + timing tell.
27 hands is a small sample size. But we have to work with what we've got. Let's assume villain has an 8% 3-bet from SB.
Here's a linear 8% 3-bet range: TT+,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,AJo+,KQo
Hand 0:
48.485% 48.48% 00.00% 16 0.00 { AA, JJ, AQs-AJs, KJs+, QhJh, JhTh, AQo-AJo, KQo }
Hand 1: 51.515% 51.52% 00.00% 17 0.00 { Ac4c }
Here's one that's slightly more polarized: JJ+,AQs+,A7s-A2s,KQs,K7s-K2s,AQo+
Hand 0:
66.667% 66.67% 00.00% 10 0.00 { AA, JJ, AQs, KhQh, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh3h, Kh2h, AQo }
Hand 1: 33.333% 33.33% 00.00% 5 0.00 { Ac4c }
I assumed villain wouldn't bet single TP hands on the river because he has some type of showdown value (eg. AK or A2s) although this is kind of a big assumption. Interesting that we fair better vs. the linear 3-bet range, probably because of the # of KJs/KQo combos he can 3-barrel.
OTOH if we are defending 3-bets with hands like A4s then I think we should raise this turn. If we have KQhh or JThh then we want to balance that with some strong hands too. And if villain has those hands, which would always barrel turn, then we can get value from them if he bet/calls and avoid situations like this river.
i'm liking this analysis a lot.
I've had some good results flatting my Axx BTNvS, but then i may have been 'lucky' to be running into more linear 3bet ranges as you described above.
i am weary of flatting all my Axx hands versus tight 3bet ranges though so its not as if i auto call and call down every time i hit an Ace on the flop. hands like AJo and sometimes AQ is usually a bluff catcher in that spot when villain is much tighter.
folding the river is def best however i dont expect him to have K,10 here almost ever, your almost certainly looking at a set of js or 5s or AQ. It is possible for him to be bluffing but hes not bluffing here enough to warrant a call.
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