NL100 What hand can I possibly call 3-barrels with here?
Posted by bdon22
Posted by
bdon22
posted in
Low Stakes
NL100 What hand can I possibly call 3-barrels with here?
BN: $177.47 (Hero)
SB: $103.23
BB: $48.85
UTG: $48.77
HJ: $102.50
CO: $205.18
SB: $103.23
BB: $48.85
UTG: $48.77
HJ: $102.50
CO: $205.18
Villain seems like a good reg, 27/22 with 3-bet of 9% over 100 hands
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
K
Q
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $2.50, SB raises to $8, BB folds, Hero calls $5.50
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $2.50, SB raises to $8, BB folds, Hero calls $5.50
Flop
($17.50)
3
2
J
(2 Players)
SB bets $11,
Hero calls $11
2 overs + BDFD + BDSD = peel imo
Turn
($39.50)
3
2
J
Q
(2 Players)
SB bets $20,
Hero calls $20
Ok so we turned a pair... but villain's value range still crushes us:
Value range: AA (6 combos), KK (3 combos), QQ (1 combo), JJ (1 combo), AQ (8 combos), QJs (1 combo) = 20 combos
Bluffing range: KTs (3 combos), T9s (4 combos), AK (12 combos) = 19 combos
Value range: AA (6 combos), KK (3 combos), QQ (1 combo), JJ (1 combo), AQ (8 combos), QJs (1 combo) = 20 combos
Bluffing range: KTs (3 combos), T9s (4 combos), AK (12 combos) = 19 combos
River
($79.50)
3
2
J
Q
5
(2 Players)
SB bets $64.23, and is all in
Equity Win Tie
BU 46.34% 46.34% 0.00% KdQd
SB 53.66% 53.66% 0.00% JJ+, AQs+, KTs, QJs, T9s, AQo+
Pot odds say we need ~44% to call. I feel this is really thin and KQ is the 2nd best hand in my range OTR (AQ is best obv).
I feel it's super thin... can I call this?
BU 46.34% 46.34% 0.00% KdQd
SB 53.66% 53.66% 0.00% JJ+, AQs+, KTs, QJs, T9s, AQo+
Pot odds say we need ~44% to call. I feel this is really thin and KQ is the 2nd best hand in my range OTR (AQ is best obv).
I feel it's super thin... can I call this?
Loading 12 Comments...
just call river..hes bluffing this runout a bit...you have a super strong hand beside slowplays here...if u got unlucky to turn tp vs his value range so be it
What i want to do is dissect a 3bet stat better so that we know villain has enough combos to call down here.
What threshold 3bet stat would make us feel like calling down is NEVER good, then work from there.
its SB vs BTN...if he 3bets over all 9%..here is more like 15/16% in SB vs BTN....not many draws missed but i cant fold w/o reads
I'd call as well. Villain can have enough bluffs here, like AK/AT.
Can someone who is well versed in GTO tell me if I'm doing this right:
Villain shoves $64.23 into a $79.50 pot. Therefore, his bet needs to succeed 64.23/(64.23+79.50) = 44.7% of the time
Is 44.7% is my minimum defense frequency? If I am folding more than 44.7% of the time on this river, then I can be exploited by villain bluffing more often? And if I am calling more than 44.7% of the time then villain can value bet more hands?
So if my range on the river is: AJ (12), KQ (12), AQ (12), QJs (2), JJ (3) = 41 combos, then I need to defend 0.447*41 = ~18 combos
Defending range is therefore: JJ (3), QJs (2), AQ (12) and KQ (1-2 combos) ?
When deciding which combos to call with in my MDF range OTR, do I also include hands that I'm 100% folding such as my draws (KT)? Because technically those hands are also in my range by the river.
If the above calculation is correct, then how on earth do I decide which 1-2 combos of KQo to defend with, without going overboard?
Not 44,7% but 55,3% is our minimum defense frequency. Therefore we have to call all KQ combos.
Against most villians i would 4-bet/broke JJ on the Button vs SB because his 3-betting range is so wide that we have to 4-bet a decent amount. Otherwise his worst hands will make good money if we dont 4-bet enough.
Ok another friend explained it to me as well that MDF=1-[bet/(bet+pot)]
And you're right that I would 4-bet JJ against this villain as BTN vs. SB
So given our range is actually 38 combos, 0.553*38 = 21 combos
.: MDF range = QJs (2), AQ (12), KQ (7/12) = 21 combos
But since this is our MINIMUM defense frequency I can include ALL combos of KQ?
Sorry of course not, i misread your above text. :( you should only call 7 of 12 combos. Iam thinking if we should call something like QTs instead of KQ because we dont block AK that he probably could triple barrel. Maybe this have an higher ev but i dont know.
You could argue both ways imo:
KQ blocks AK/KT but it also blocks KK
QT blocks KT/T9 but doesn't block KK
Ty for the clarification though. I love how this ambiguous situation is now crystal clear. I really need to start doing this for my other HH's too.
You are welcome, thats why we are here.
Its good for your own game and its pretty easy to solve such spots imo.
Be the first to add a comment