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Nl100 TPTK facing river ch/shove

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Nl100 TPTK facing river ch/shove

BN: $104
SB: $168.49
BB: $101.17
UTG: $174.15
HJ: $107.21 (Hero)
CO: $122.16
1k hand samle, 23/19/6.3 eprfi16
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt Q A
UTG raises to $3, Hero calls $3, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Flop ($7.50) Q 9 5 (2 Players)
UTG bets $5.15, Hero calls $5.15
Turn ($17.80) Q 9 5 4 (2 Players)
UTG bets $12.24, Hero calls $12.24
River ($42.28) Q 9 5 4 4 (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $25.50, UTG raises to $153.76, and is all in, Hero folds
I only have a couple of bluffcombos here. Maybe i would bluff here with AKss or i dont even knowwhat else. I don't call TJs pre or any gs. My value range is something like QQ, 99, AQ -18combos. Now it seems kind of an easy exploitative fold.

I'm a bit concerned about my nonsd winnings. Is it possible to beat nl100 stars without redline falling off?
Final Pot
UTG wins $90.48

8 Comments

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ItsToothPasteISwear 11 years, 1 month ago

Its only exploitable if he expects you to fold AQ, which Im guessing he doesnt. If he does tho, then yeah, either you cant bet this hand, or you gotta call it off X% of the time.

I kinda wanna say we cant bet it anyway, maybe im biased cuz I know you get raised, but im not sure what worse is calling if he can read hands at all.

NoHubris 11 years, 1 month ago

The redline is a totally different topic, and a quite extensive one might I add, but by trying to increase it you're going to be giving up on some showdown winning. 

Of course, it would be great if our redlines could be at about even, but at low stakes you're going to be playing against a lot of passive players that don't fold, so I think you're going to hurt yourself more than do yourself any good by trying to get your redline up at 100nl.

Kevin 11 years, 1 month ago

His UTG raising range is strong and his line seems super strong.  Your hand seems fairly face up with your line.  IMO his value range consists of AA,KK,99 and maybe 55.  His river bluff range likely consists of JsTs and AsKs.  I feel like he check calls his big Q's and would be very unusual to turn weak Q or middle pair into a check raise river bluff.  

I agree with toothpaste, river bet is almost never getting called by worse unless you have some crazy history with villain.  Hope that helps

Bink182 11 years, 1 month ago

When I first read the hand, I could see maybe trying to get in a thin value bet  here. Going for value from worse Qx and TT,JJ. But I think Toothpaste and PaN1C are correct. It's probably not a huge error to try and value bet this river  but there really aren't that many hands competent villians will pay u off with in this spot. As played I'm definitely folding to his river jam.

RaoulFlush 11 years, 1 month ago

that said (we dont have really anything to go for thin value OTR) i really hate Villains line with about everything in his range :)


CombatCarl 11 years, 1 month ago

His river line is so bad, I almost wanna look him up. It's an interesting spot though on river when he checks it, he opened on UTG and DB on somewhat of a dry board. JJ? I would TB AA/KK in his shoes so my first impression on river is that he has air so I'd probably check/back. I never expect him to CRAI on this board though.

Will Winaton 11 years, 1 month ago

I'm surprised that you think he won't check/call ever. What's his line with KQ? I was thinking that he will ch/call here most of the times. This is the bottom of my valuebet range. Against a 3rd barrell it's an easy call, right? So I fold every worse hands to a ch/shove(except worse fulls), but might even call with KQ(wouldn't) which i wouldnt bet here. I think I prefer to vbet fulls here in his position. Maybe some regs bet/call aq here in my pos.

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