NL100 str8 river on 4 str8 cards, flush possivle vs weak bet, which value can we have?

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NL100 str8 river on 4 str8 cards, flush possivle vs weak bet, which value can we have?

BN: $98
SB: $108.35
BB: $101.50 (Hero)
UTG: $18.80
HJ: $102
CO: $97.50
sb : i dont know him 25/0 100 hands certainly recreationnal player
Co dont know him 33/23 103 hands
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A T
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $3, BN folds, SB calls $2.50, Hero raises to $11, CO calls $9, SB calls $9
i m trying to 3bet more from blinds and btn -my overal 3bet % was around 5.5, 6%), so i have this hand in my blinds 3bet range because i expect some calls
Flop ($36.00) 9 7 8 (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks
a little lost against 2 unknow player with my open ended + 1 overcard (other would give str8)
i cant be very bad but dont know if they re good enough to fold a pair vs a CB
i plan a X/C
Turn ($36.00) J (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $22, CO folds, SB calls $22
ok i got the nut but i want to keep them, i dont really fear any card because i expect flush draw to bet flop or turn
so i size to have a pot size river on any non flush card, what about my sizing?
River ($80.00) 4 (2 Players)
SB bets $7
ok the flush is possible now, i have no read about this betsizing
i want to take maximum value, so do i call (nothing more to take) or do i raise and how many
thanks for your opinions have a nice day

14 Comments

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WM2K 12 years ago
3 betting is probably ok mostly because you ll isolate yourself vs the 25/0 guy a fair amount which is sweet.

OTF ya super coordinated and someone has something a high high % of the time. I could be convinced betting is good but I like the check.

OTT bet bigger. 26-28$ I think. This is the street where most of you value is and he s unlikely to let go of a decent piece.

OTR it smells like a blocker bet to me so I want to shove. However I doubt he calls with worse ever and he ll have a flush some non 0 amount of the time. If you had bet the turn bigger I think shoving is much more of an option as villain would bit closer to committed.
thedoors 12 years ago
thanks, i dont see the point of shoving we risk a lot and what worse can he call
as said my argument for betting not so big is balancing when i will bluff (making "cheap" bluff), doest it make sense?
WM2K 12 years ago
R u really bluffing that often on this board? Also you think SB is paying really close attention to your bet sizing that he s going to pick up on the fact that your making it another 4-6$? I understand your trying to balance your ranges and be aware of them but you can take these ideas too far and it starts costing you value. Villains unlikely to fold the turn. Bet bigger.

I agree that shoving is thin at best but idk I don t like letting dudes get away with blocker bets. Sometimes though your hands are tied which could very well be the case here.
James Hudson 12 years ago
I feel like we should just be bet calling this flop with an open ender + an overcard with an SPR of under 3. If we're checking I like check raising to potentially get some dead money thrown into the pot. As played, a raise to 40 or so, maybe even smaller, seems like the right play. As thedoors said, it's tough to get called by worse if we jam but we still have the best hand a huge % of the time.
WM2K 12 years ago
So we raise to 40 and he ships. This is a situation I usually avoid and perhaps I fear it too much. What would you do in the rare times it does happen though. Pretty sick.
thedoors 12 years ago
do you have spots were you dont want to play for stakcs with TP+openended, i surely dont put enough strengh to my hand since i play it cautiously very often
James Hudson 12 years ago
I'd probably just fold. He's a weaker player who hasn't shown any aggression in any facet of his game so far and he's going to be more likely to get to the river with a flush in a passive way than a regular would.
James Hudson 12 years ago
My last post was supposed to be an answer to WM2K. Which street/ situation are you talking about with regards to bet folding or calling?
thedoors 12 years ago
also why i fear to raise and want to know if i want ti play for stacks before raising
Playing for Pennies 12 years ago
I think making it $40 kind of puts us in that awkward "I'm pot committed" mindset. So to avoid that, I would make it like $25 and fold to a river shove. I think if we shove over his $7 bet we don't get called too often by hands like j9 but I think if we raise small enough, we do get called by 2pair type hands a ton from fishy players. Also I think if villain decided to shove we could safely assume we are beat a vast majority of the time to feel comfortable letting go of our hand. I mean, some of the time villain is going to show up with a ten and make us fold a chop (which is sickening, I know) but I don't think that happens a high enough percentage of the time to justify calling majority of the time (if we did decide to raise and get shoved on.)

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