NL100 Shove A high 3bet pot , good or spew?

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NL100 Shove A high 3bet pot , good or spew?

BB: $100
UTG: $247.20
HJ: $83.15
CO: $111.30
BN: $54.25
SB: $99 (Hero)
CO 24/20/5%3bet fold 3bet 77% fold CB52% fold turn CB 50% Raie CB 16%(25), agression factors 60%/43%/35% WTSD 50% 1k hands no notes
MP 72/9 130 hands...
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 3 A
UTG folds, HJ calls $1, CO raises to $5, BN folds, Hero raises to $11.50, BB folds, HJ folds, CO calls $7
ok so co is a reg he isolate wide thhe fish i believe, he folds a lot to 3bet so i think i gold a good hands to bluff expecting him to folds a lot and i will often have equity when he calls
he calls given the fact that he fold to 3bet 77% and i m not a maniac while 2betting in blindes i put him on (let say we 3bet him around 9% on average he calls 23% so his range is 23% of 9% = 2%=JJ-99,AQs-AJs,KQs
Flop ($26.00) 9 7 5 (2 Players)
Hero bets $13, CO raises to $30, Hero raises to $74
we are far behind
Board: 9c 7s 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.758% 71.89% 00.87% 17792 215.50 { JJ-99, AQs-AJs, KQs }
Hand 1: 27.242% 26.37% 00.87% 6527 215.50 { As3s }

but hits this boar 55% mosly wiht overpaire (44%) so after anlyse it seems a bad flop to CB, but i did (thinking i represent strong hands and thinking his boradayus combos were a alot compared to his pairs, i was wrong)
When he raises this flop IP, given the fact that he s agro i put him on bluff so i shove wanting to represent QQ+

what do you think?

thanks


7 Comments

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event78 12 years, 2 months ago

I'd add some slowplays AK/QQ/KK/AA in his range for calling, something like AQ AJs 99-JJ/QQ (AK/KK/AA sometimes). I dont know where you see he's aggro, according to his postflop stats he seems honest (he folds a lot preflop so his range is stronger and weaker postflop?).
I would cbet if I thought he was really weak postflop and folded AQ/AJs.

As played it's a spew, you don't have any reads on his raising range (he needs to bluff all his AQ/AJs and not to raise OVP). You 3bet preflop because he folds a lot preflop and cbet cause he folds 50% to cbet (close cause his 3bet calling range is strong) so you can't say that he's aggro.
thedoors 12 years, 2 months ago
thanks
well his agression factor% is 60% that seems very agro to me, but your arguments for him having a strong range i right, he folds a lot to 3bet
fact is i find his AF flop% high and dont know why he would raise ip here
my play is really agro but i think i have backdoors str8, flush and mayeb A too,

how would you play it?
retrej 12 years, 2 months ago
His raise here seems really fishy, I have seen many players min raise on sucha board with air (underpairs KQ etc.), his high agg factor adds towards the bluff side.
But you still got to make a calculation if AQ-AJs and KQ are big enough part of his range (part that he folds when you shove)..
On the other hand these guys almost always shut down on turn, so you can call many of these min raises and wait what will they do on the turn(obv. works way better when you are IP), but with this Stack to pot ratio i dont think that is an option in your case.
event78 12 years, 2 months ago
But he has a fold to 3bet of 77%, a fold to cbet of 50%; both stats are pretty high for a reg plus a normal raise % (16% is not that high). It's just one stat and if he is really tight when he gets postflop (high fold to 3bet, low 3bet, std pfr) then it's logical that he has a high Agg%.

Against a tight honest player, I'd c/f or cbet/fold; c/r could be ok if you think he pot control his OVP TT-QQ and b/f all the rest but here, you don't have this read and you know that he has a tight range to get to the flop so I wouldn't mess around.

The problem is that you have no idea of his raising range. He could be raising OVP for value/protection to avoid difficult decisions turn/river or to induce against 2overs (I often see this play from tight regs; call pre w/ 88-QQ and raise on none K/A flops). He could rarely raise this flop but actually never as a bluff. If he folds a lot preflop it's probably because he thinks you have a strong range to 3bet him or he doesn't care and doesn't want to fight for this pot preflop, so it doesn't make sense for him to get crazy postflop when he thinks you have a strong range.
thedoors 12 years, 2 months ago
Air (A high and less are 9 combos, his calling range prflop a 24 combos sor his air is 37,5% of his range on flop
Overpaire or better is 15 combos so 62.5% of his flop range
seing that seems a really bad idea to CB this boar as a bluff (didn realise that before), juste his raising range seems weak but i dont know how to do math to know if it still can be a shove if he raises his bluffs
aniway thanks for your answers help me to figure how its a bad idea to bluff a tag who folds a lot to 3bet and this time calls even on a low connected board
bye the way i looked bad flops for his range
KQ4r he hits 7.4 (TP+, FD)
K87ss he hits 17.4 (TP+, FD)
AK5r he hits 22.2% (TP+, FD)
AA6r : he hits 30% (TP+, FD)
832s : he hits 70% (TP+, FD)
QJos he hits 87.5% (TP+, FD)

in fact he his a lot of flops and it seems a good idea to play fit and fold and X/F a lot after our 3bet
best flops to bluff seems to be K high

do you agree?
event78 12 years, 2 months ago
It depends on his range to call the 3bet, on his postflop tendencies in 3bet pot and your image. Here I think it's not bad to x/f a lot when you don't hit the flop because he's CO (probably tighter than BU) and he folds a ton to 3bet (77%). Against a reg with a 55 to 70% fold to 3bet, it's another story.
Joe Nelligan 12 years, 2 months ago
I would make it bigger pre flop, I would like you sizing much better if you were in position but i doubt he will fold that often to this 3bet size. Also I'm curious as to why you when the b/3bet line rather then the c/r/f line if you expected him to be playing back on this texture that widely.

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