NL100 set on awkward runout
Posted by qwertz
Posted by
qwertz
posted in
Low Stakes
NL100 set on awkward runout
http://www.handconverter.com/hands/2792911
MP is a standard reg, BTN is fish.
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It's kinda gross, but I'm check-folding river. I don't think you will get herocalled/bluffed by worse, and villain has all the bigger sets and suited Tx broadways and maybe AT.
Flop is x/call or x/raise, flop favors raisers´ range and we want to protect our x/calling range. River is x/fold in a vacuum-
Well flop thinking is Villan will not bluff as wide 3way with the fish and I just want to get value from the fish.
What about betting small on the river?
I think there's arguments for betting your entire range small OTR. Personally, I'm not a fan of small river bets as I tend to get confused and level myself when raised.
This might actually be a good spot to bet ~$20ish and maybe get crying calls from AQ AK? The problem is though: Do we ever have bluffs here?
I would x/c flop & turn. As played I would probably bet small ~20 and fold to a raise.
How far are we stretching our bet small/fold range here?
First of all I don't really know what our range is because I don't have a donking range on this flop.
But If I would have a balanced range here I think that we could bet our entire range small with 22 being the weakest hand for value. I don't really expect him to have a hand in between 22 and a straight so all those hands are the same to me and it doesn't really make sense to have two betsizes imo.
If he jams I would probably call all my Tx and fold the rest.
Preflop is a check, but thinking about donking range in similar spots is great and its not a huge mistake imo.
Fwiw iirc baluga in his book argued that we should develop a donking range whenever the rec acts before the second reg, and always check when the pfr (reg) acts before the rec. Im not totally convinced.
river is a xf in my book, but I'd be damn sure to check all my Tx combos too (you should have some...sure, its mostly TdXd combos, but still). I just dont see any value. If anything, I'd consider bombing to fold out better sets (both of you have very few Tx, but you should have a couple Tx more than the villain imo), but that just gets ridiculous.
No reason to check river imo, villain never bluffs river on this runout, very rarely has any Tx and will definitely call a small bet will most of his 2p combos. I would bet small
Also I would expect villain to raise turn with most of his sets
Not sure I like the flop donk. Checking river but other than that I don't think the river should affect your decisions very much.
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