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NL100 set facing turn ch/push

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

NL100 set facing turn ch/push

SB: $113.65
BB: $103.80 (Hero)
CO: $100
BN: $319.18
Preflop ($1.50) (4 Players)
Hero was dealt 5 5
CO folds, BN folds, SB raises to $3, Hero calls $2
Flop ($6.50) T 5 J (2 Players)
SB bets $4, Hero raises to $12, SB calls $8
Turn ($30.50) T 5 J 9 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $18, SB raises to $97, Hero folds
Final Pot
SB wins $64.50
Opponent is 21/16, no any dynamyc, looks pretty standart reg. Raise first in sb 38%, cbet 56%, fold to raise after cbet 43%. wwsf 45
Normal fold? What about sizing on turn?

13 Comments

Loading 13 Comments...

cold7betfold 12 years ago
I gave him a range of TT, JJ, T9, JT, QJ, KQ, J9, Jc8c, Jc7c.
Against that range we have 62,5% equity while we need 56,5%, making this a call.
Andrew Kirilyuk 12 years ago
Will he just flat flop /w JT and then check push turn on bad bad card that can give me tons of straights. I mean its a bad idea to check / push 2pairs on that turn against my line, and i dont think that such a passive man /w wwsf45 will do it.
3Kids 12 years ago
The pot is 126.10 when villain shoves the turn. We have 70.8 behind. I think we need 70.8/(70.8+126.1) to break even. That's 36%
Andrew Kirilyuk 12 years ago
Yeah, i know how to count odds, just interesting for me, how we should count it to have 56.5% for zero call in cash :)
WM2K 12 years ago
If we need 36% this is really close. I made 2 stoves.

vs tj,jj,tt,kq we have 38.5%. I m not convinced he has TJ 100% here as ya things got worse for that hand. Also he may have some combos of Jx with clubs "ending the hand" or some business like this.

(KxQx,KxQy,JJ,TT)@100,(JxTx,JxTy)@50,(AcJc,KcJc,QcJc)@100

So I made this range. TJ half the time + some combo draws. We have 34%. So basically its really close and he may 3 bet TT-JJ some %.

(JxTx,JxTy)@50,(KxQx,KxQy)@100,(AcJc,KcJc,QcJc)@100,(JJ,TT)@74

If he s playing JJ-TT like this 3/4 of the time then we hit 36% almost exactly. We re really close to indifferent but I think its more often worse for us then better.
cold7betfold 12 years ago
TT, JJ, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, Jc8c, Jc7c, KQ, JTs (only 1 combo), JTo (only 4 combos) and I get 37,43 % equity.
james 12 years ago
I think that the fact that it's really close when you give him a range of solely "reasonable" hands makes it a clear call. It's blind versus blind and everyone, no matter how good, spews from time to time so we're definitely likely to see some hands that weren't included in your analysis. Seeing a hand like J8 or 89 certainly wouldn't shock me.
WM2K 12 years ago
Ya this makes sense. Takes only a little bit of craziness from villain to turn this into clear call.
BigFiszh 12 years ago
I´m not a fan of the flop-raise. What´s our raising range on the flop in position BvB?

That said, our range looks incredibly strong and I assume Villain b/c flop and x/shove turn (when we have all straights, sets and 2pairs) with hands like J9 or QJ is pretty wishful thinking, imho, so I think the fold is fine.
Andrew Kirilyuk 12 years ago
Because its BvB, i will frequently bluff raise here /w some gutshots, oesd (esp vs guys who barreling much and have wide sb open raise). Thats why i mixed it with value hands like sets (not always sure), mb KJ-AJ. I understand that its too plus ev to flat here set vs aggro barreling guy, but opponent from this Hand is another type (small cbet+small fold to raise cbet+29wtsd, thats why i want to have value already on flop, but when he Ch-Raise all in turn, it was awfull for my hand :( )
ps: sorry for my english
Leland Michel 12 years ago
From these positions I think pair + draw is as likely as any other hand, or maybe more so. The 9 appears better for our range at first glance, but considering our lack of blockers it should widen his range considerably. We're beat occasionally, but way too often we have our opponent drawing to 4 or 8 outs ro fold here. It's pretty disastrous not to call off here imo.

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