NL100 rivered TP in 3bet pot
Posted by chrissie1993
Posted by
chrissie1993
posted in
Low Stakes
NL100 rivered TP in 3bet pot
SB: $100.50 (Hero)
BB: $101.12
CO: $102.08
BN: $180.52
BB: $101.12
CO: $102.08
BN: $180.52
Preflop
($1.50)
(4 Players)
Hero was dealt
Q
K
CO folds, BN raises to $2, Hero raises to $7.50, BB folds, BN calls $5.50
CO folds, BN raises to $2, Hero raises to $7.50, BB folds, BN calls $5.50
BTN: 31/25/2.4 3bet 12.3
btn open 51%. vs resteal: fold 53, 4bet 8
fold to cbet in 3bet pot: flop 50, turn 31, river 0 (1)
WTSD 31
btn open 51%. vs resteal: fold 53, 4bet 8
fold to cbet in 3bet pot: flop 50, turn 31, river 0 (1)
WTSD 31
Flop
($16.50)
2
T
4
(2 Players)
Hero bets $9,
BN calls $9
Turn
($34.50)
2
T
4
9
(2 Players)
Hero bets $20,
BN calls $20
I think he is floating a bunch of Ax OTF and so I think its a good double barrel OTT wiwht 2 overs + a gutter. What do you think? x/f or barrel?
River
($74.50)
2
T
4
9
Q
(2 Players)
Thats a really interesting card Id say and I was really lost. Whats our line here? shove, xc or x/f? or even b/f smallish?
Loading 9 Comments...
I think shove is standard, but let's take a look.
Villain doesn't seem vs super foldy and has a bunch worse that can call... {AT, KT, maybe JT, some QJhh, QJss} for 38 combos. You lose to {QT, T9s, ATcc, KTcc, JTcc, T8cc, KJcc, AJcc, 44, 22}for 23 combos and from your numbers he's 4b TT/99 pf. Against that total range I have KsQd as 61%. If villain folds all JT combos, we are still at 51%. Given your stats for IP, he seems the type not not fold many Tx hands.
As for the checking option, the Qc is a pretty good card for our range, so I don't think IP is going to turn a lot of hands into bluffs. A. he doesn't have a ton of floats, and B. he'll just take his SD with a hand like red AT.
As for what betsize to use, I really don't know is less than a shove would be best. Betting small might be ok, but you can get into some crappy spots where if you fold too much you can be lighting lots of money on fire
" from your numbers he's 4b TT/99 pf" I dont think he 4b 99/TT because he is 4betting a total range of 4% and he is probably 4bet bluffing as well and flatting 99,TT and maybe JJ preflop.
So if we cant discount 99,TT is it still a shove?
4b range you listed at 8. You listed 3bet 12.3 and 4bet 8, and 8% should be roughly 5.33% value, 2.66% bluffs, and TT/99 are in top 5.3% value.
Let's say they are in his range, I would think we'd be below 50% and wouldn't want to bet. I'm still not sure what size to bet. I'd guess pretty small.
Shove, well played.
x/f.... Villain river range is much stronger then yours and we don't block any of the draws that call turn. I think it goes x/x and we win some but betting seems too thin.
Ev of betting at 23.98$ if villain calls all tp+ and 50% of A10 combos
Ev of betting at 17.80$ if villain never calls worse than tp
Ev of checking and calling if he bluffs all hands worse than second pair = 25.67$
Ev of checking and calling if he never bluffs= 17.80$
Ev of checking and folding if he bluffs all hands worse than second pair= 30.33$
Ev of checking and folding if he never bluffs and only value bets top pair or better= 39.56
I would have assumed that we should pretty much always be value betting or check calling here but it looks like versus this villain and probably many villains the best play is to check fold.
This stuff amazes me when I see it broke down this way. I hope I can one day get a good good enough grasp on the game that the EV math will make more and more sense and my ultimate goal is to better implement this at the table later down the road. Still have some big leaks to fix before I start diving into this sort of thing.
just taking a look at the stats I think it might be better to give up on the turn once you got called on the flop. the turn card could help villains range I believe and it doesn't look like they give up easy. does any one think this is a good line?
in the regards to the river on the actual hand I think you have bet at least 80% of the time and check call the remaining 20%.
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