NL100 River spot decision

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NL100 River spot decision

BN: $109.09
SB: $112.28 (Hero)
BB: $147.32
UTG: $131.90
HJ: $76.99
CO: $111.54
Villain is most likely a fish, playing 48/30 over 20 hands and I don't have other info on him.
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt Q T
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $2.50, BB calls $1.50
Flop ($5.50) A T 2 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $4, Hero calls $4
Turn ($13.50) A T 2 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $11, Hero calls $11
River ($35.50) A T 2 7 Q (2 Players)
What's your play on the river? Would you prefer leading or checking? If you check, do you c/r against some sizings?

Thank you

5 Comments

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BigFiszh 11 years, 10 months ago
By leading you give him no chance to bluff - in case he perceives your line as weakness and an A he´s most likely betting himself, so I think checking is >>> betting. You asked, if we would x/r against "some sizing", I´d better ask if there´s any sizing I wouldn´t x/r. :)

I doubt he´s ever folding an A to a x/r with all the potential draws busted and sets and even 2pairs are kinda unlikely on this wet board, so I´d definitely x/r.

Here´s our equity against a possible calling-range that even include all gutshots and a couple backdoor-flushes that hit:

de.pokerstrategy.com
Board: AsTs2h7hQh
Equity Win Tie
MP2 57.04% 57.04% 0.00% { QdTd }
MP3 42.96% 42.96% 0.00% { 77, 22, AQs-A2s, KJs, QhJh, KhTh, JhTh, Th9h, 9h8h, AJo-A2o, KJo }
Mike87 11 years, 10 months ago
I don't know if that's a clear c/r against any sizing.. I doubt he bets Ax all the time on the river, I would expect him to SD a lot. Even if he bets all his Ax, he needs to call a c/r almost always with it for the c/r to be +EV. I don't really think it's going to be the case.
James Hudson 11 years, 10 months ago
Agreed, I don't like checkraising here unless he makes a small bet that's somewhat giving away the strength of his hand. As played, I'm not folding to any reasonably sized bet and I probably wouldn't lead unless villain had show a propensity to go bet/bet/check.
brodyz 11 years, 10 months ago
Bigfish i think you missed out quite a few flush combinations from your stove. I wouldnt be c/raising any betsize over 1/2 pot and i would be making it no bigger than 2.5x and possibly only a minraise.

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