NL100 - river bluff?

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NL100 - river bluff?

Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players) BN: $132.50 (Hero)
SB: $78.97
BB: $90.16
UTG: $216.62
MP: $100.00
CO: $100.00
Preflop ($1.50) Hero is BN with Q K
UTG raises to $3.00, 2 folds, Hero raises to $9.00, 2 folds, UTG calls $6.00
Flop ($19.50) J 3 4
UTG checks, Hero bets $9.26, UTG calls $9.26
Turn ($38.02) J 3 4 J
UTG checks, Hero checks
River ($38.02) J 3 4 J A
UTG checks

Villain unknown.
Ace OTR may seem like good bluffing card, but i am not sure, if i have enough fold equity. He can still call me w his pocket pairs (99-TT) and also he can check here a lot w Jx hands expecting me to bluff w my non showdown hands.

29 Comments

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screamdustry 8 years, 6 months ago

Your blockers are quite good and your SDeq is quite none, so id go for it :P
I dont know if he checks a lot of Jx, but definetely a lot of Ax there, so its not fistbump tho, but betting 50% pot OTR repping hand like AQ or AK and counting on 33% FEQ should be very reasonable, especially w/ KQJ blockers.

luba 8 years, 6 months ago

Yeah, in game i had similar thought process. Bettinng 1/2 pot to look like a value w Ax hands. But once he snapped me w 99 i wasn't quite sure if my play wasn't waste of money.

Samu Patronen 8 years, 6 months ago

3bet is loose, I wouldn't do it without info.

Bluffing the river seems fine, you don't have to use a big sizing, you're targetting pairs below J basically.

Mamoa 8 years, 6 months ago

I don't think it's standard. It's certainly possible since we block many nut hands but I wouldn't do it as a default. Biggest problem is domination I think

Samu Patronen 8 years, 6 months ago

I don't think it's standard, in fact I would fold it even againts MP, even tho it's a bit closer in that case. Be careful with offsuit hands, they play worse than suited hands and it's easy to get out of line with offsuit combos.

A2s-A5s are surely better for 3betting in this spot. It's not all about equity, but also blockers and equity realization (playability).

sauloCosta10 8 years, 6 months ago

A2s-A5s are surely better for 3betting in this spot. It's not all about equity, but also blockers and equity realization (playability).

Actually KQo has better blockers, in a sense that it blocks more combos from villain's continuing range, so it generates more fold equity preflop.

Samu Patronen 8 years, 6 months ago

Still, I think A5s > KQo. Being suited is pretty cool.

KQo is not bad tho, but I wouldn't do it as a standard, and certainly not everytime.

Chael Sonnen 8 years, 6 months ago

You'd play AK/AQ as a bet OTR very often and you have good blockers and no showdown value.
Check some Jx OTT so we don't get crushed by river check-raises.

sauloCosta10 8 years, 6 months ago

I pretended to be Chael and answered...

lol yeah I think that was pretty clear. I just dont get why you would do that

Maybe he actually does play but I'm asking because I dont see any pros playing mixed strategies postflop, and if he does I would like to hear his opinion about it.

antihero 8 years, 5 months ago

You can def see some pros using random number generators in their vids.
Another cool way to mix (more suitable for zoom) is: Do x on the two left tables and y on the two right tables if you mix 50/50.

sauloCosta10 8 years, 5 months ago

@antihero

Thats for preflop, not postflop. Preflop is easily doable, since the frequencies are simple. But postflop is another story...or you are just going to mix your decisions 50/50 postflop? That seems at least weird

antihero 8 years, 5 months ago

Well I'm not actively trying to mix, but if I think it's close between call/fold against unknown for example or mixing cbet/xraise I might use some 50/50. Those spots are very rare I admit and I'd rather go by reads/stats... btw you could also do 75/25 with this system ;)
I'm not even playing zoom, just saw this system in some vid and thought it made sense.

I'm sure high stakes players mix postflop but I don't think any non high-stakes player should try implementing advanced mixed strategies (like 85/15) or smth as it's just too complex. PioSolver has the option to round mixed strategies which can give you a hint which combos would make sense to mix 50/50.

Edit: Why do you think this is only for preflop Saulo?

KWM 8 years, 6 months ago

I guess u may rule out Jx with those pre-flop actions & the chk on the flop with top pair in flush draw board.
I'd prefer making a half pot bluff / blocking bet on the river, 99-TT/Ax will never raise you at this spot

SDB83 8 years, 5 months ago

You played this hand fine. You have very few bluffcombos otr and that's why he should fold.

Brokenstars 8 years, 5 months ago

All combos of KQ excluding KQcc exactly is 15 combos, and you might check KQcc anyway on turn. If you bet half pot otr every time with KQ otr you need 45 value combos to offset that or you'll be overbluffing. Considering there is a flush draw for clubs on the flop if we were to actually think any AX was a value bet and/or didn't have worse bluffs in our range (which we do) then we'd at the very least we'd likely randomize by not bluffing the KQ combos that had a club -- not that the club makes much of a difference, but this is how I'd randomize it to the people above discussing randomization. With KQ high here you do actually beat some low club-club combos that were passively played and this is a spot where it's quite easy to over bluff in my opinion because you really don't have many value hands.

Also, if we were to also look at opponents range I really don't think you're going to get the 33% folds you need to profit by betting half pot to begin with, so I'd really just not bluff this spot.

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