NL100 Nut flush on paired river
Posted by bdon22
Posted by
bdon22
posted in
Low Stakes
NL100 Nut flush on paired river
BN: $98.73
SB: $109.13
BB: $100
UTG: $101
HJ: $100 (Hero)
CO: $244.54
SB: $109.13
BB: $100
UTG: $101
HJ: $100 (Hero)
CO: $244.54
Villain is a reg
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
K
A
UTG raises to $3, Hero calls $3, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
UTG raises to $3, Hero calls $3, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Villain's UTG open is 28% over a large sample. Very wide so I could easily 3B this but there were many fish behind which I wanted to keep in the pot.
Flop
($7.50)
J
5
K
(2 Players)
UTG bets $4.65,
Hero calls $4.65
Turn
($16.80)
J
5
K
5
(2 Players)
UTG bets $10.42,
Hero calls $10.42
River
($37.64)
J
5
K
5
T
(2 Players)
UTG checks,
Hero bets $25,
UTG raises to $82.93, and is all in
Pretty sick.
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This is a good spot for villain to x/jam his KK, JJ & 55 because your range has a lot of flushes so I'm folding.
Agree with knoxox that its a good spot for villain to ch/jam here with made boats since we have made a lot of flush draws, I think most villains will just continue to bet. However, I still feel this maybe a fold as we hold AsKs, villain can only have Q hi flush. Firstly, although he is opening wide, he really cant have much QsXs combos, Q9 only I suppose, and further, I dont see a Q hi flush playing this way. Ch/r with it would be an overplay, and the usual line is to keep betting it.
Yes, but isn't this a good spot to turn KJ into a bluff as well? I think AKss is a better hand to b/c with than say AQss. I think I call.
I mean, let's say we have 10 flush combos on the river and he holds KJ. Then, in his eyes, we have 3 boat+ combos. So if we bet/fold all our flushes plus some bluff combos and bet/call with boat+ only, his bluff c/r with KJ is highly profitable.
Given his utg open range is so wide, he probably has all KJo and KQo combos. Also, he may think Hero is 3betting wide as well and hence discounting KK and maybe even JJ combos.
So we need to b/c with some flush combos, too. AKss is probably the best candidate.
but do villains really think like this. When do we ever see villains turning 2 pair into a bluff, or try to get their opponent to fold a flush. I know its exploitable folding, but I think most people are playing pretty honest on a river like this. IDK, just seems coming up with theoretically optimal hands that villain can bluff with and then call because of it is kinda spew, when in reality villain betting the nuts almost of the times here, that one time he maybe bluffing doesnt really justify it.
+1 ^ Especially UTG vs. MP
If he never x/j the nut flush then I don't think this is the best flush combo to call with because he could well bluff with the nut flush blocker.
Yeah, it depends with what he is bluffing. However, I think this is a call given how "capped" our range may look to him.
Given villain's bet sizing I need to defend around 43% of my range here. And I just don't have that many boats. JJ and that's pretty much it.
So from a GTO sense I think I have to defend AKss here.
The problem is I just have no idea what he could be bluffing with. And villain will have every boat/quad combo here; plus the occasional TT that was trying to make better hands fold on the turn by repping a stronger range UTG.
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