nl100 interesting river spot
Posted by Will Winaton
Posted by
Will Winaton
posted in
Low Stakes
nl100 interesting river spot
Villain is an OK regular. 15 rfi EP, somewhat agressive cbetting frequencies(70) on 3k hands.
I would probably raise turn something like half the times with my AQ combos, not sure what I would balance it with(suggestions appreciated), but I think villains range will be very strong at this point. I wouldn't raise anything else for value OTT.
In this case my river range will contain a lot of strong hands, probably KQ is the bottom of my range.
I felt pretty bad when I saw this size, and I think worst hand he would bet for value is fullhouses(straights should bet smaller), and I don't even see what he could bluff other than KTs probably.
Would you be able to fold here?
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Given his sizing pre, can't u discount premiums a bunch? Having Ac kinda sucks, but he gonna have to show me.
It's his standard raise size I believe.
Fold flop with this combo, river as well.You block AQ, he`s checking his Jx combos ott, ends up with a bunch of value for this sizing and very few bluffs if any.
I don't really see myself folding OTF. I'm not sure how others play with this combo, but we beat his bluffs, and have nice implied when hit, plus I don't expect BTN to raise here ever.
He has 70cbet% on each street, so he might not always ch with his Jx combos, but I agree with what you're saying.
+1 to Mr Prince here
def not folding flop here.
Calling flop can get tricky, if there is a third player still in. HU IP, I would always float, 3handed, I dont mind raising flop some of the time. As played, I would exploitativly raise turn, probably hard to balance, but def. never a bad play. River is a fold against someone solid, who doesnt bluff his busted bd flushdraws for pot on the J.
yep river is a fold, I just dont see what he can be bluffing with, we even block the few backdoor draws he might have (and even then, I wouldnt assume that he just cbets A5cc on this board into two people)
Im not sure why do you think that BTN will not raise flop? Seems like a decent spot to raise smth like AQ AJ (prob not all combos) 66 KT (if he wants to balance, but I'd assume that regs will generally overfold vs the squeeze)?
Anyway flop call is rly close, def not necessary, def not a spew
I def think it's more tricky with the Ac to be able to call OTR, but I guess we have to call at least sometimes here w/ AQ. Would be very interested to hear how people construct a raising range on the turn here, especially on this kind of rainbow board.
its prob KQ (unintuitive, but tbh I dont see too much value in calling anyway, so we might as well raise) or JQ (if we're calling with those pf for some reason)
Vs a lot of ssnl regs its also a decent idea to just exploit general inability to fold sets and raise AQ only.
It is hard to raise for a sizing where he can't call with sets, even against a range of AQ only, so we shouldn't really care about that after a second thought.. We could only make his 2pairs indifferent if we bluffraise turn enough which is a large part of his range as well, but I can't imagine that we'll be able to have the right frequency of bluffs, so probably raising pretty big here to try to make his sets 0ev is the right play? (So ignore my second thought) :D
I think flop call is super standard and good.
On the turn U can call sometimes, if U have the Ac he has less semmi bluffs on the turn, and more value hands maybe, but U need a little bit less "protection" versus a FD, but most of his turn FDs are Axcc. I mean if U have Ac his range is stronger, and easier to stack of him a bit, maybe he also more inclined to bet the river, but if U don't have the Ac bit more value in raise if he does continue with his fds. So overall I think good choice to call with AcQx, and raise others, If U want to mix it up.
On the river he does represent some KK, JJ, TT, 33, KJ, maybe JT occasionally and AQ and hardly represent enough bluffs, he can have some 98s or 87cc maybe. U have no blockers to his value hands, and most of the time as U said he's pretty polarized to boat+, and some bluffs.
If U have forexample 3 combo TT, 1 combo JJ, 3 combo 33, 2 KJs, 2 KTs, 4 AQ (AcQx, AcQc), some AJ, QJs, AK, KQ, maybe it's a bit exploitive fold but I think it's okay versus most of the players, and if U sure about he's vbet boat+ only in this spot U can find better blockers in Your range.
Will, with 15 RFI and 70 CB, you have to think he's betting flop with random 22-99 sometimes as well as Axs. Even if he bets flop only infrequently with these you have a +EV call. On turn some players bet a lot of medium hands, for example AK, KQ. Other players might only bet AK sometimes and then bet JTs+ for value. Bluffs will be various clubs, A3s mostly. Usually raise bluff with KQcc (often) and QJs/Ajs (infrequently, prob like 5%-10%). I think it's good to flat around half of your AQ and raise other half.
On blanks you fire some of your bluffs and all of your AQ of course, on clubs you jam AQ and KQcc and more of your bluffs. I suppose on an A you can bluff with AJ ! You'll also probably want to raise turn with JJJ/TTT some percent? It might be very low or zero though I'm not sure; it's just so punishing to be against KK and to fold out all AK/AA with the raise while blocking 2pair.
Wow, thanks Ben! It all makes sense.
I think JJJ/TTT will be worse to raise than to just flatcall OTT for the reasons you mentioned, and if Villain shoves it's a disaster because we'll have a 0EV call at best and it will happen fairly often in my opinion.
Will, having 0EV against the next bet/raise isn't sufficient reason not to make the previous bet/raise. Although I do agree that in many cases, especially on earlier streets, it's a good heuristic that usually gets you the right hands to value raise.
hey ben how in the world aj can be bluff on river?
i cant think advantages what bluffing aj can make dude we aint got no blocker
if u are thinking on higher level
take my a ha moment out of my potential with ur answer please
thx
he can have 13c of better fulhouses and 9c of AQ which u split, so still +EV call for less than potbet.
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