NL100 Interesting overbet spot with trips

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NL100 Interesting overbet spot with trips

BN: $87.68
SB: $299.67
BB: $166.86 (Hero)
UTG: $106.33
HJ: $113.58
CO: $119.36
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 6 7
UTG raises to $3, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $2
Flop ($6.50) 7 4 5 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG checks
Turn ($6.50) 7 4 5 7 (2 Players)
Hero bets $6, UTG calls $6
River ($18.50) 7 4 5 7 A (2 Players)
Hero bets $30, UTG raises to $97.33, and is all in

Villain appears to be a reg. No other reads. 

Clubs and many draws busted, ace could be a scare card. But my overbet must be scary to bluff jam still.

19 Comments

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m_zeal 10 years, 7 months ago

Sick sick spot. I guess fold.

I think this is just such an insane spot to bluff. He can't even have a7, but the odd flop timeout or super unlikely trap just seem more likely to me.

bdon22 10 years, 7 months ago

How common is it for sets/AA to be checking back this flop? I've almost never seen it played that way before, at least not from a reg. But perhaps this is some kind of meta-game going on lately that I'm not aware of: UTG checking back most of their range on these low boards?

bdon22 10 years, 7 months ago

Do you guys think A4cc, A6cc, A8cc, 33, 66, or 88 might turn their hand into a bluff on this river due to their blockers?

Knoxox 10 years, 7 months ago

Your riverbet is polarized, your range is full of boats and quads. So your range looks superstrong. 

Ofcourse if he knows that you know his line is always AA and you'll fold almost everything, then it's a good spot for him to bluff. But I don't see anyone doing this without a sick read.

jaypatel33 10 years, 7 months ago

I doubt those counterfeited 2prs turn into a bluff. To me it looks like A7 only.  I never expect a set or overpair to checks back the flop. I dont really expect A7 to either, but I think that the most likely combo. Or its just some sorta busted draw bluff. 

bdon22 10 years, 7 months ago

Well the ratio of these two occuring really matter in that case since it can sway us into calling. There is only 1 combo of As7s remaining in the deck.

SPrince 10 years, 7 months ago

Would be a pretty silly bluff, close to zero %.

Makes sense to x/b AA, A7 for sure on this board.If it`s x/r he`s hating life,because you have so many cards to barrel where he`s clueless and has to fold.

Looks like easy fold to me.

Regularblue 10 years, 7 months ago

I have an overbet range in my game, so I have qutie a considerable amount of experience when it comes to situations facing a river jam Vs your overbet; put simply people just don't bluff, and I am yet to even find an opponent fishy enough to value cut themselves by jamming. 

Even against an opponent that does not understand you are representing a polarised range, or one that has never even heard the word, these opponents will still tend to realise that you are representing a super strong hand and that bluffing is a silly option in nearly every case. People are humans after all, and humans will naturally feel apprehensive/scared to pull the trigger in a situation like this, even if the have a 99% feeling you are full of Sh*t


bdon22 10 years, 6 months ago

Results if anyone cares: I called and villain showed AA. Thanks for the input everyone!

Felipe Boianovsky 10 years, 6 months ago

Yeah, I think AA and 55 are the hands you're going to see more often there. If we didn't have the 7h, he'd also have A7hh sometimes, and could also have 44, which is what makes our decision close, but probably a call with 55 (loosing to 4 combos and beating 3), and a pretty easy fold with 44. The math isn't that simple, as he is not going to play all of those hands that way 100% of the time. But as we don't know exactly with which frequency we're going to see someone check back AA or 55/44 on the flop here, this seems like a pretty good approximation.

It's importante to understand that everything worse than 44 is a bluff catcher. He can't have anything worse than that for value. And if we expect him to basically never bluff, understanding the concept of relative strength, value / bluffs, bluff catching, etc, we can easily get unattached to the "absolute strength" of our hand, and fold a bottom full house (big absolute strength hand, but just a bluff catcher in relative strength terms) here very easily.


Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 6 months ago

Agree felipe! Just a question, why 55 would be a great check on this texture ? I tend to defend on the BB against UTG hands that hits this board pretty hard against UTG (I know I don't play against myself and people should not play exactly as me). AA I think is fine to check on rainbow connect boards, but 55 can get a lot of value from 88-JJ/7x, 76

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 6 months ago

this is a perfect hand to lead on this texture because he is not betting a lot of his offsuit AK/AQ and you get a lot of value from it and start building a pot with your monster. I dont think you need to overbet river since he is betting this A quite a lot, so x/r this hand is better because he calls our x/r with some AK/AQ but if we bet he is just calling it and jamming AA that did not want to x/r OTF and fold a lot of scary turns. 

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