NL100 Hands like this are ruining my winrate
Posted by bdon22
Posted by
bdon22
posted in
Low Stakes
NL100 Hands like this are ruining my winrate
BN: $100
SB: $147.27
BB: $143.96 (Hero)
UTG: $237.24
HJ: $115.05
CO: $125.82
SB: $147.27
BB: $143.96 (Hero)
UTG: $237.24
HJ: $115.05
CO: $125.82
MP is 21/17 with a F3B of 55% over 358 hands
BTN is 23/18 with a 3-bet of 5.5% and F3B of 72% over 420 hands
Both are solid regs
BTN is 23/18 with a 3-bet of 5.5% and F3B of 72% over 420 hands
Both are solid regs
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
7
8
UTG folds, HJ raises to $3, CO folds, BN calls $3, SB folds, Hero raises to $13, HJ folds, BN calls $10
UTG folds, HJ raises to $3, CO folds, BN calls $3, SB folds, Hero raises to $13, HJ folds, BN calls $10
Decided to squeeze since 87s is a well disguised hand in a 3-bet pot and allows me to stay aggressive. But calling can't be bad either, especially given MP's somewhat low F3B %, I may not pick up the pot as often as I'm hoping.
Flop
($30.50)
J
5
Q
(2 Players)
Hero bets $15,
BN calls $15
Flop hits BTN's range well. Most people know that Qx boards hit 3-bet flatting ranges well since lots of hands with Q's in them like AQo, KQo, QJs, QTs, etc. are in their 3-bet flatting range.
I expect villain to fold all his pocket pairs weaker than 88 here, 99/TT sometimes. With BTN's low 3-bet of 5.5% it's possible JJ is in his range as well.
When I get called on this board I think I have to shutdown unless I turn more equity with a 4, 6, 9, or heart.
I expect villain to fold all his pocket pairs weaker than 88 here, 99/TT sometimes. With BTN's low 3-bet of 5.5% it's possible JJ is in his range as well.
When I get called on this board I think I have to shutdown unless I turn more equity with a 4, 6, 9, or heart.
Turn
($60.50)
J
5
Q
Q
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BN checks
Bad card since it hits his most likely calling hand well and he wouldn't necessarily bet it since it doesn't need much protection on this board. It's likely I would fire 2-barrels with a diamond draw or straight draw so he doesn't need to worry about anything really. JJ also has a boat and would slowplay this. And if BTN himself was floating flop with a draw like T9s or KTs, I would expect him to bet this turn since it's a good bluffing card for him.
River
($60.50)
J
5
Q
Q
4
(2 Players)
Hero bets $115.96, and is all in,
BN calls $72, and is all in
Yet despite all of my analysis so far, I decide I really want to win the pot no matter what and jam.
Final Pot
Hero has
7
8
BN has
J
Q
How do I stop myself from doing this? Hands like this are basically the entire reason I'm on a downswing at the moment.
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