NL100 Hands like this are ruining my winrate
Posted by bdon22
Posted by
bdon22
posted in
Low Stakes
NL100 Hands like this are ruining my winrate
BN: $100
SB: $147.27
BB: $143.96 (Hero)
UTG: $237.24
HJ: $115.05
CO: $125.82
SB: $147.27
BB: $143.96 (Hero)
UTG: $237.24
HJ: $115.05
CO: $125.82
MP is 21/17 with a F3B of 55% over 358 hands
BTN is 23/18 with a 3-bet of 5.5% and F3B of 72% over 420 hands
Both are solid regs
BTN is 23/18 with a 3-bet of 5.5% and F3B of 72% over 420 hands
Both are solid regs
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
7
8
UTG folds, HJ raises to $3, CO folds, BN calls $3, SB folds, Hero raises to $13, HJ folds, BN calls $10
UTG folds, HJ raises to $3, CO folds, BN calls $3, SB folds, Hero raises to $13, HJ folds, BN calls $10
Decided to squeeze since 87s is a well disguised hand in a 3-bet pot and allows me to stay aggressive. But calling can't be bad either, especially given MP's somewhat low F3B %, I may not pick up the pot as often as I'm hoping.
Flop
($30.50)
J
5
Q
(2 Players)
Hero bets $15,
BN calls $15
Flop hits BTN's range well. Most people know that Qx boards hit 3-bet flatting ranges well since lots of hands with Q's in them like AQo, KQo, QJs, QTs, etc. are in their 3-bet flatting range.
I expect villain to fold all his pocket pairs weaker than 88 here, 99/TT sometimes. With BTN's low 3-bet of 5.5% it's possible JJ is in his range as well.
When I get called on this board I think I have to shutdown unless I turn more equity with a 4, 6, 9, or heart.
I expect villain to fold all his pocket pairs weaker than 88 here, 99/TT sometimes. With BTN's low 3-bet of 5.5% it's possible JJ is in his range as well.
When I get called on this board I think I have to shutdown unless I turn more equity with a 4, 6, 9, or heart.
Turn
($60.50)
J
5
Q
Q
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BN checks
Bad card since it hits his most likely calling hand well and he wouldn't necessarily bet it since it doesn't need much protection on this board. It's likely I would fire 2-barrels with a diamond draw or straight draw so he doesn't need to worry about anything really. JJ also has a boat and would slowplay this. And if BTN himself was floating flop with a draw like T9s or KTs, I would expect him to bet this turn since it's a good bluffing card for him.
River
($60.50)
J
5
Q
Q
4
(2 Players)
Hero bets $115.96, and is all in,
BN calls $72, and is all in
Yet despite all of my analysis so far, I decide I really want to win the pot no matter what and jam.
Final Pot
Hero has
7
8
BN has
J
Q
How do I stop myself from doing this? Hands like this are basically the entire reason I'm on a downswing at the moment.
Loading 14 Comments...
Come up with a better feel for your ranges in each spot by doing off the table work and you'll be less worried about winning every pot. Hopefully you'll start to develop a curiosity when thinking about folding/calling/bluffing about where your hand sits in the range of all hands you play this way, and then should you decide to relinquish your holding you will (hopefully) do so with the reassurance that you have enough other hands you can bluff/call with in a given spot.
Don't squeeze speculative hands oop vs people who don't fold to 3 bets unless they have some kind of glaring leak post flop. It's unlikely at these stakes that you need to worry about balance and board coverage this much. For the river play, try to think back to what you had thought earlier on in the hand. You said that you thought it was a good spot to continuation bet the flop because villain should be folding almost all of his smaller PP's. So once he does that we're left with a range of maybe 910s, K10s, Jx and Qx. On the turn, you check because it's a bad spot to barrel and you mention that you expect villain to bet with his straight draws. So now when we get to the river villain has a range of Jx and the occasional slowplayed Qx left. Your range looks mostly like air hands that have given up with the occasional slowplay or overpair. So we're at the river in a spot where villain has mostly bluff catchers and you have mostly air. If you recap all of that it seems like a bad spot to bluff.
I would try to do a little more of that at the table if I were you. Try to take your time on the river and rethink your way through the hand. Spend some time Hollywooding on the river when you're nutted too so that you give yourself the opportunity to think when you have a tough decision. Also, one other think to mention, your hand has negative blockers here in that you block combos that may have peeled flop that almost surely fold river but block zero combos of hands that might be able to call down such as AJ or KJ.
The 3bet preflop might not be bad if you only choosing some SCs. The stats of both villain's wouldn't make me want to squeeze them though. BTN's range looks strong - his low 3bet stat means he has more premiums in his flatting range and MP looks stubborn.
Your flop cbet is trying to fold out such a small part of villain's range and you block some of those lower pairs. You KNOW this flop hits BTN c3b range and you cbet anyway..
Desperation river bluff, but you knew this already
This hand is a bit of a disaster imo.
Don't like the squeeze at all. Your hand is easily strong is enough to complete, but it doesn't play well multiway with a long SPR. You're going to flop bottom/mid pair with overcards on the board too often, or get it in against a bigger flush draw.
I'd check the flop here. You want him to fold hands like 77-TT, and you block 77/88. You can still make him fold hands like AJ/TT/JTs etc. later on.
Turn and river make little sense. Because you're giving up so often on the Q pairing, Villian can check back a balanced range here so easily, because he'll expect you to fold to a bet almost every time.
Sure, you can slowplay Qx sometimes because of it, but you're super bluff heavy in this spot.
Nice tip on the blockers I never really considered that I block the hands I want folding to my c-bet.
unbalanced line,what hand you play like this for value?on turn is two draw and you dont bet=only fullhouse or air.
It seems as if OP didn´t even want to discuss the hand strategy-wise, because he knows that he just played it horribly (sorry for that :D). He wants to get tips how to end splashing like that.
Unfortunately I doubt there´s a quick-fix. If you´re on a heavy downswing and find hands like these - it seems as if you´re trying to force things. You don´t play rationally anymore, you don´t back your judgement, you just (senselessly) try to fight for pots, just because you´re in desperate need of winning some (bigger) pots. If you´re brutally honest to yourself - and what I said is true - you need a break. And use that break to get back to HOW you´re winning money in poker and where your edge comes from. When you got that mindset back - you can start playing again.
Sorry, if I´m sounding like jack-ass, but I know what I´m talking about (unfortunately).
BigFiszh nailed it...
I've been trying to put in volume even when my body tells me not to. But this is proving to be quite difficult after already working 9-10hrs a day from my stressful day job.
I listened to some podcast interviews with heavy hitter grinders (eg. nanonoko) and they all mention that they learned to just play through their tilt and downswings (and to have a really solid B-game). Reading TMGoP even Jared Tendler mentions that we should sometimes practice playing through tilt rather than avoid it completely.
One of my long term goals is to eventually try and reach Supernova Elite. And so I'm trying to train myself not to take days off unless absolutely necessary.
So I guess I phrased my OP incorrectly, but I do appreciate the strategy advice everyone gave in this hand.
From my experience, you need to write down what you are thinking AND what you are feeling. Play through the downswing as best you can until you really feel you have had enough / burnt out etc
Then take a break and do some writing/thinking. Find resolution in those problem areas then use affirmations/incantations to internalize better mindsets and improved strategy.
Taking a break is quite crucial because when you sit down to play after 5-6 days, any problem areas that come back immediately you now know 100% are your biggest mental game concerns.
Exercise / nutrition / sun and fresh air / quality sleep
That hand has a some run bad in it. It's unlucky you were called pre/ on the flop/ on the river. This line will not make you a million dollars and is at best marginally profitable.
I find I make tend to make way less spewy plays when I am thinking about keeping balanced.
Bdon22 your analysis of the hand looks good, but what I think happens is that on top of all that you have another thought process overlaying this one that says something like:
1. He knows that I know he has something and is intending on calling the river. So he knows its a bad spot for me to bluff
2. I CAN actually rep monsters with this line as I would check the turn somewhat often to catch float and get the c/r in.
3. Every time I 3bet cbet he is just floating me light and I end up giving up, I need to be more aggressive and get him off his medium strength hands.
What happens is you end up making big calls and big bluffs at every opportunity because you can and theoretically we should have some bluffs in most somewhat frequent spots
I think the way you need to think in these spots (generally) to avoid spew is;
1. I do have monsters here sometimes
2. I often have good hands weaker than trip Qs that are comfortable chk/calling to get a showdown vs his floats
3. I have hands that can hero call here sometimes if I think his range is weak and air heavy
4. I have hands with better blocking values for the times I want to make the check raise bluffs here
4. I HAVE to check/fold some hands even if my opponent is somewhat weak/airy. If I am never check/folding I am hugely exploitable. A hand with no showdown value/equity/decent blocking cards seems like a great hand to put in my check/folding range.
Thanks for the insight clark... sometimes I forget that there is such a thing as a check/folding range LOL!
I thought flop is an obvious give up, given board and our equity. I am impressed w/ the ambitious cB
Bdon22 - I think most people get into this mentality sometimes especially when on a downswing, or when feeling like you can't win whatever you do.
Our ego gets hurt when we aren't winning battles and taking a lot of pots down. We think about how we can squeeze every possible bit of ev (that may or may not be there) out of each hand - obviously not a bad mentality per se but one that tends to be counterproductive when in this mood.
Instead trying to think which hands go into which range - and then congratulating yourself when you are confident you got it right - is better for preventing spew - it helps me at least.
I
Be the first to add a comment