NL100 flush vs donk bet on the river

Posted by Jhuntter

Posted by Jhuntter posted in Low Stakes

Posted 10 years, 6 months ago

NL100 flush vs donk bet on the river

BN: 66.11
SB: 106.34
BB: 99
HJ: 136.95 (Hero)
CO: 103.22

Preflop (1.50) (5 Players)

Hero was dealt 7 6
Hero raises to 3, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls 2

BB is fishy 50/30 player after ~300hands. That's why I opened pre-flop.

Flop (6.50) Q T J (2 Players)

BB checks, Hero bets 4.80, BB calls 4.80

Turn (16.10) Q T J 5 (2 Players)

BB checks, Hero bets 11.75, BB calls 11.75

Villain has been folding 70% to second barrels

River (39.60) Q T J 5 K (2 Players)

BB bets 19.80

Villains post flop aggression factor: flop 0.27, turn 1.42, river 1.67 (300 hands)
WTSD 28%, WWSF 40%, W$SD 63%
Hasn't donk bet before this.

Should I jam or call here ?

Thanks!

8 Comments

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doncamatic 10 years, 6 months ago

Hmm a bit of a tough spot. I'd expect this kind of fishy player to play a straight like this more often than a flush. The question is if he's calling a shove with a straight on the river or maybe even two pair. Had he bet ~$25 I'd be more confident that calling is correct but this smaller bet is really tempting to shove over. I think it's close and I'd probably just call but I think I might be playing too nitty in spots like this vs fish.

ohgodwhy 10 years, 6 months ago

What do you think about checking back the flop with this weak FD? Yeah, he has a high FTurn cbet but I expect him to call this board twice a lot and am not sure you have a profitable 3barrel no matter if you hit or miss.

I'd also just call OTR. You basically have the worst flush compared to his range and I don't expect him to b/c a str8 often enough compared to better flushes. 98hh is where I think I prefer jamming.

doncamatic 10 years, 6 months ago

Yeah checking back is definitely a decent option imo.

mvppt 10 years, 6 months ago

If BB was a reg i would also be more inclined to check back the flop because probably we wouldn't get paid that much but given that he is a fish i think we have enough implied odds to start building a pot OTF and get called by worse hands than our flush if we hit it.

Whipman 10 years, 6 months ago

I'm shoving here. As a fish, he has way way way more Ax combos than Flushes here and I don't see him ever folding a straight in this spot. I mean, if you play 50% of all the hands you're dealt, you're probably not going to start folding straights just because a flush is possible. Plus, if he's investing money to catch a straight and he gets it, folding to aggression seems kinda weird for him. I don't think that any fish can talk himself out of calling in a spot like this. Definetely a shove to me.