nl100 - difficult situation OTT
Posted by 1BuckPlease
Posted by
1BuckPlease
posted in
Mid Stakes
nl100 - difficult situation OTT
The hand was played on GG's Rush and cash (similar as zoom). Villain is mostly unknown, probablry reg (playing with 4 entries). What range is playing like that? I cannot see too many FD after just calling OTF, especially holding the Ad, nor many Kx.
The pool is on the nitty side and all in all, I cannot see too many bluffs/semi bluffs here. Against a tighter range, I do not have the odds for calling OTT (mostly 3xXd, 55 and a few FD with QdX like QdTd, QdJd). Would a fold OTT be nitty asf, right? Or?
OTR? IMO its an easy fold. Whats your thoughts?
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He's representing a very thin range though. A3s (2), 55(3), 33 (1) for a total of 6 combo's.
Despite blocking some bluffs I still figure he can easily overbluff. Keep in mind he only has to bluff 3 combo's for a call to become profitable if his value range is 6 combo's.
Alright, there are few things to consider
1)this is not range cbet in theory (in practise obv fine, since people under x/r and play more straightforward)
2)on the turn he shoudlnt have raising range in theory, so here is deviate. What he can raise as a bluff 5x (well I dont know he honestly shouldnt have naked 5x except A5hh) flush draws (candidated A2/42/64/74/76; raising other fds a bit overkill)
3) river just a blank, now he have less bluffs as A5 got there and some of his FDs got pairs. Do you really see people here just blasting busted FDs?
p.s. I belive can mostly use smaller turn bet(from 40% to 80%) on paired runouts
The problem for me on the turn is that I am blocking a lot of his possible bluff combos with the Ad. Most of his other FDs are without SD value, so after flop call we can discount 42s, 64s, 74s, 67s, etc. Solvers never ever raise OTT, but in real life, I can easily imagine, he looked down his card, saw a 3x or 55 and said "now or never", just to deny checking behind OTR. The pool has a very low AF on the river, in general he could except a few bluffs on a blank river in this pool.
I actually think folding turn is fine. I don’t think people find bluffs vs the overbet here, and think we are often just drawing dead. Calling might be okay, but not convinced. River fold
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