NL100 AQs, 3handed, big pot
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NL100 AQs, 3handed, big pot
BN: $128.03
SB: $104.33 (Hero)
BN raises to $3, Hero calls $2.50, BB raises to $4, BN calls $2, Hero raises to $17, BB folds, BN calls $15
i flat pre, cus BB is a huge fish, and when he 4b min, its like the fifth or sixth time hes done it, and when BTN flat calls, i know my equity here is way, way ahead of that of my opponents.
when BTN flat calls again, thats weird. i would character BTN as the sort of passive-bad player whos definitely much too loose pre, and whos very capable of bluffing big in terrible spots.
when i called, i weighted his range toward pps, suited broadway cards, suited aces.
flop is okay for me. i feel like i have to cbet here, because ive got overcards and a backdoor FD, and i want to be barreling lots of turns. at the same time ... i feel like i dont have a ton of fold equity here. cus whats the range that calls me? something like {22,AJs,A8s,A3s,KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s} ... preflop, thats 90 combinations; if i cbet 20 into 45, villain needs to fold 31% time for this bet to break even ... villain would have to be playing at least 90/0.31 = 292 combinations before the flop for that to be the case .. 292 combinations is 22% of hands, and probably looks something like {TT-22,AQs-A2s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo-ATo,A5o-A2o,KTo+,QTo+}.
i dont know if thats realistic.
would i be better off check+jamming in this spot? if villain only bets a range of {22,AJs,A8s,A3s,KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s} [i really dont see him firing with 99], i only have 28.3% equity if we get it in.
on the turn, i guess id have to shove if i wanted to be balanced [id definitely be shoving my AK], but in this spot, if i shove for pot, i know for a fact that villain is never calling me with worse.
still, in hindsight, i probably missed value by not betting .. ~$35. $40 is still less than half pot, but my gut sense is that villain will see that in absolute dollar amounts, and its going to convince him to fold KJs.
river is not a good card. i shove because yes, i can see worse hands calling. i can also see 99 snap-calling me; ditto for JT, TT ... but thats only what .. 12 combinations?
eh. this has all been an exercise in me thinking out loud.
all thoughts are appreciated.
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I c-bet smaller to $10, should net us some small amount of fold equity and let us see both the turn and river cheap. Don't mind checking back either.
As played shove the turn the effective stacks are less than the pot and any old 9x or if this guys really bad even 7x or Kx will call. Boards too drawy and villains to fishy to baby bet.
Checking back oop is sth. I´m consistently working on but I never got it ... :D Sorry, couldn´t resist. ^^
As far as the hand is played, I like your thoughts throughout the hand and against this particular guy your line even might have made sense. Although, if he´s prone of making big bluffs - does that include him floating light and stabbing? In that case I might have x/shoved the turn. Or bet even smaller to let him shove.
But I don´t really mind the way you played the hand.
lol still trying to come to terms with RIO's 'BN' abbreviation, thought we had position.
I like it all except the small turn bet. Just ship as I don t think a smaller size accomplishes enough for the price of letting him peel for cheaper and make a better river decision.
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