i flat pre, cus BB is a huge fish, and when he 4b min, its like the fifth or sixth time hes done it, and when BTN flat calls, i know my equity here is way, way ahead of that of my opponents.

when BTN flat calls again, thats weird. i would character BTN as the sort of passive-bad player whos definitely much too loose pre, and whos very capable of bluffing big in terrible spots.

when i called, i weighted his range toward pps, suited broadway cards, suited aces.

flop is okay for me. i feel like i have to cbet here, because ive got overcards and a backdoor FD, and i want to be barreling lots of turns. at the same time ... i feel like i dont have a ton of fold equity here. cus whats the range that calls me? something like {22,AJs,A8s,A3s,KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s} ... preflop, thats 90 combinations; if i cbet 20 into 45, villain needs to fold 31% time for this bet to break even ... villain would have to be playing at least 90/0.31 = 292 combinations before the flop for that to be the case .. 292 combinations is 22% of hands, and probably looks something like {TT-22,AQs-A2s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo-ATo,A5o-A2o,KTo+,QTo+}.

i dont know if thats realistic.

would i be better off check+jamming in this spot? if villain only bets a range of {22,AJs,A8s,A3s,KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s} [i really dont see him firing with 99], i only have 28.3% equity if we get it in.

on the turn, i guess id have to shove if i wanted to be balanced [id definitely be shoving my AK], but in this spot, if i shove for pot, i know for a fact that villain is never calling me with worse.

still, in hindsight, i probably missed value by not betting .. ~$35. $40 is still less than half pot, but my gut sense is that villain will see that in absolute dollar amounts, and its going to convince him to fold KJs.

river is not a good card. i shove because yes, i can see worse hands calling. i can also see 99 snap-calling me; ditto for JT, TT ... but thats only what .. 12 combinations?

eh. this has all been an exercise in me thinking out loud.

all thoughts are appreciated.