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nl100 3bet pot TPkiker T vs shove river

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

nl100 3bet pot TPkiker T vs shove river

CO: $142.85
BN: $98.50 (Hero)
SB: $99
BB: $100.95
CO reg

23/20 12% 3bet 800 hands fold 3bet 27%(11), steals 25% CO, fold CB 31% X/R flop 6!%

aggression factors 56% 36% 24%

X/R river 15% (13)
Preflop ($1.50) (4 Players)
Hero was dealt T K
CO raises to $3, Hero raises to $9, SB folds, BB folds, CO calls $6
since he seems to call a lot i shtinks its a good hand to 3bet for value even if SB an d BB dont squeez a lot
Flop ($19.50) K 5 Q (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero bets $10, CO calls $10
good flop for my range i would CB a lot, mayeb not 2ndr paire and underapair, bad board for him to me he coan only beas me with KJs QK
Turn ($39.50) J (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero checks
i pot control since i dont see what worse he can call
River ($39.50) 7 (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero bets $20, CO raises to $123.85
i value thin vs Qx hands and im suprised of his X/R, dont see wich miss draw he can have so easy fold?

thanks

9 Comments

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Tom M 12 years, 2 months ago
Seems low river aggression to be a bluff, right? I think easy fold but having a hard time putting him on one specific hand. Both straights make sense, I guess, but we have a T blocker. Also ambitious of him to check a straight on the river after the turn goes check/check. A set of 7's is weird, but sort of makes sense...
thedoors 12 years, 2 months ago
he seems not to fold a lot to 3bet, let say he calls 45% oop and 4bet his premiums
i dont see why he should call premium oop more than 4bet them with no history
he opens co 25% so his calling range is 0.45*25%=11%
JJ-88,AQo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo,AQs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s

he fold to CB only 30% so he calls all pairs + FD i believe
thats 80% of his preflop range
Th9h,KdTh,KsTh,AcTh,AdTh,AsTh,Tc9c,KhTc,KdTc,KsTc,AhTc,AdTc,AsTc,Td9d,KhTd,KsTd,AhTd,AcTd,AsTd,Ts9s,KhTs,KdTs,AhTs,AcTs,AdTs,JhTh,QcJh,QdJh,KdJh,KsJh,AcJh,AdJh,AsJh,JcTc,QhJc,QdJc,KhJc,KdJc,KsJc,AhJc,AdJc,AsJc,JdTd,QhJd,QcJd,KhJd,KsJd,AhJd,AcJd,AsJd,JsTs,QhJs,QcJs,QdJs,KhJs,KdJs,AhJs,AcJs,AdJs,QhTh,QhJh,KdQh,KsQh,AcQh,AdQh,AsQh,QcTc,QcJc,KhQc,KdQc,KsQc,AhQc,AdQc,AsQc,QdTd,QdJd,KhQd,KsQd,AhQd,AcQd,AsQd,KhTh,KhJh,KhQh,KdTd,KdJd,KdQd,KsTs,KsJs,AhTh,AhJh,AhQh,AcTc,AcJc,AcQc,AdTd,AdJd,AdQd,AsTs,AsJs

im flipping with this range
Board: Kc 5h Qs Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.916% 45.94% 05.97% 1415 184.00 { AcQc, AdQd, AhQh, AJs-ATs, KdQd, KhQh, KdJd, KhJh, KsJs, KdTd, KhTh, KsTs, QcJc, QdJd, QhJh, QcTc, QdTd, QhTh, JTs, T9s, AcQd, AcQh, AdQc, AdQh, AhQc, AhQd, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, AJo-ATo, KdQc, KdQh, KhQc, KhQd, KsQc, KsQd, KsQh, KdJc, KdJh, KdJs, KhJc, KhJd, KhJs, KsJc, KsJd, KsJh, KdTc, KdTh, KdTs, KhTc, KhTd, KhTs, KsTc, KsTd, KsTh, QcJd, QcJh, QcJs, QdJc, QdJh, QdJs, QhJc, QhJd, QhJs }
Hand 1: 48.084% 42.11% 05.97% 1297 184.00 { KhTh }

so im not sure is should bet turn and that makes me i should fold river sinice he wont bluff as many hands as he will value better hands than me, he wont bet shodown hands i believe
but again i dont know :=)
vanity02 12 years, 2 months ago
Im folding here, It sucks because I can see what your saying. But bluff catching here seems to be psychologically negative ev hehe. When you call and your right you feel like a champ, but when they have you crushed it will leave you feeling shitty the rest of your session. That is how it affects me at least, when I bluff catch with marginal tp hands.
John Shamwoww 12 years, 2 months ago
I like bet > bet > check here?
james 12 years, 2 months ago
Me too, a big chunk of people's 3 bet flatting range is AQ and I would expect that to call the turn a decent pct of the time. I also wouldn't be super concerned about being bluffed on the turn as there aren't too many hands to turn into bluffs here.

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