NL100 - 3B Pot Turn Spot w TP and FD - Call or Shove?
Posted by Phoenix Star
Posted by
Phoenix Star
posted in
Low Stakes
NL100 - 3B Pot Turn Spot w TP and FD - Call or Shove?
Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (5 Players)
BN: $112.84 (Hero)
SB: $100.50
BB: $107.87
UTG: $100.00
CO: $91.38
SB: $100.50
BB: $107.87
UTG: $100.00
CO: $91.38
Preflop
($1.50)
Hero is BN with
J
T
, , , ,
Flop
($19.00)
4
J
3
,
Turn is the 2s and he bets 21.79 into 30.82.
SB is a pretty aggro reg who 3bets in this spot 16.7%. The small cbet big turn bet line when picking up equity is the rage right now so i expect him to do this a lot of his Ax range and definitely with all of his Axs combos that have a FD. He is not slow playing tp and likely fires most AK/AQ combos.
If he bet calls all Axs combos with a FD, sets, tp and the odd Kx or Qx flush draw combo we basically flip by shoving turn. How often does he bet fold AK/AQ? I'm trying to decide whether calling or shoving is the higher EV play in this spot.
Thanks in advance. Im new here and looking to contribute.
Loading 5 Comments...
Difficult spot think you need a solver to get a better picture of what option is from GTO perspective the best. There are many factors to consider e.g. will he bluff AKo and AQo when he misses and what when a flush-draw comes in will he bet his AKo and AQo that contain the A of the flush-draw blocking the nut flush draw will he bet on the river his missed flush draws and what about AKo will he bet all of these still on the river? Will villain fold his AKo against a shove? Will he fold his flush draws without an A what about his other flush draws?
Did put it in flopzilla you prob have about 45% to 50% raw equity against his range that might bet the turn depending on how many AKo and AQo you include, but it is just to complicated to solve quickly and there are a lot of assumptions to make. So from EV standpoint both calling and shoving are for sure +EV but what is best is more complicated and should prob depend on opponents tendencies.
PokerSnowie gives both options the same EV.
Be aware that I cant set ranges in PokerSnowie so ranges are a bit off but on inspection very similar to what you give your opponent.
Pretty much what i thought to be honest. I don't think it matters against the population. It does get interesting on a player dependent basis. Many regs in my games wont ever barrel AQ/AK here which changes the calculus significantly. This guy though though so i shoved and he folded.
Without specific reads or somewhat knowing opponent strategy I would play like solver suggest. It allows me to do smaller error if my assumptions are totally off.
This hand looks like clear call, though vs many turn strategy shove will have very similar EV
If you think opponent plays very aggressively, you should tend to call with medium strength hands IP to let him hang himself.
OTT, you have top pair and FD. I tend to play pair + FD-type hands as if I didn't have the FD. So, here, you have top pair medium kicker, which is a middling-to-fairly good hand. You can either call or shove, but I prefer call.
If you shove, he's going to fold most of his bluffs (which make a good portion of his range). Against an aggro opponent, I would tend to call down almost all rivers with top pair.
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