[NL10 Zoom] Is this Triple barrel overbet bluff justified?

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[NL10 Zoom] Is this Triple barrel overbet bluff justified?

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: $5.72
SB: $9.90
BB: $12.19
UTG: $10.26 (Hero)
MP: $10.00
CO: $12.38
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is UTG with 8 9
Hero raises to $0.30, 4 folds, BB calls $0.20
Flop ($0.65) Q 6 3
BB checks, Hero bets $0.33, BB calls $0.33
Turn ($1.31) Q 6 3 T
BB checks, Hero bets $0.94, BB calls $0.94
River ($3.19) Q 6 3 T 5
BB checks, Hero bets $8.69 and is all in

Opponent was 4tabling reg.

Preflop I expect him to call my raise with something like 22+, A2s-AQs, AJo-AQo, KTs+,KQo, Q9s+, QJo, J9s+, unsure if people defend JTo pre... but he will definitely defend T9s, 98s, 87s.

Not sure about T8s, 97s, 86s, 75s. Do people defend these hands? And mostly aggressive or passive?

Anyway I cbet this flop with full range and expect him to fold all his Ax with backdoor flushdraw and everything that totally missed.
He will sometimes float stuff like KJdd or KJcc I believe.

Turn I hit the double bellybuster and I can rep a big hand since I raised UTG. I can imagine that I should bet bigger like 1,3x pot or something so I can shove the River more comfortably. The plan with my hand is to bluff on clubs and to valuebet when I hit and checkback when I hit a pair.

River is a club and I can easily rep a nutflush and his range should be somewhat capped. His only nuthand should be AJcc and possible AQcc.
But now the question is if my bluff is +EV since he can easily bluffcatch me when he holds the Ac...

Now that I think about it Turn overbet makes more sense so that the SPR is better on the River.

10 Comments

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victorbynite 6 years, 1 month ago

Hello,

PF, with 98s, this is a basic fold UTG. If you want to open UTG with 98s, make sure all players IP are nit and/or there is at least one recreational player in the blinds. And, unless some particular readings or notes taken about similar situations, I do not think a reg defends a large range on the BB vs UTG: always remember that you are representing a strong range when opening UTG, therefore a reg on the BB will nitify the defending range, particularly at Zoom tables. I see the following defending range : { 99-22, AQs-AJs, AQo-AJo, KQs }, maybe { JJ-TT, ATs, KJs, KQo, QJs, JTs }.

As played flop, thinking of my hand versus the villain’s range, I would check, since the villain has the range advantage; thinking of my range versus the villain’s one, I would c-bet lower (1/3 pot), since I have QQ, AQ and KQs in my range and the board is pretty dry.

As played turn, once we are called, I would check back and take my free card.

Generally, before considering sending three barrels in bluff, ask yourself: which better hands than yours do you want the villain to fold? And before overbetting, think of the villain’s range and ask yourself: is the villain’s range capped? is the villain scary? can I make pressure on parts of the range such as a second pair or lower? And don’t you think the villain has something strong enough to call you twice and may make a hero call on the river with a club used as a blocker, all the more as you do not block any bluff catcher?

In other words, I am afraid you committed a bluff which is too sophiscated for micro-stakes. I do not say you must never bluff in micro-stakes, but micro-stakes, IMHO, are not the best ones to make triple barrels in bluff.

S0lidSnaKe 6 years, 1 month ago

Hi Victor! How is the 2NL? Finnally beaten?

"thinking of my hand versus the villain’s range, I would check, since the villain has the range advantage"

??? hand vs range... range advantage? that sentence has no sense to me! To find who has the range advantage we have to compare range vs range and here hero has around 50% equity with 12 more combos of overpairs than villain but almost the same number of sets and TP but a lot more of Ahi so if there is a range advantage for hero it is quite tiny.

"And before overbetting, think of the villain’s range and ask yourself: is the villain’s range capped? is the villain scary? can I make pressure on parts of the range such as a second pair or lower?"

I really don't understand that kind of statements to justifie overbetting in a spot. I'm really interested to hear what others could tell about that but to me that's sounds complete missunderstanding. We can overbet in a spot where we have a lots of very strong hands contrary to villain and doing so we have to add a lots of bluff.

That being said since you are here, I really hope you will stop to spit out like a parrot what you heard previously on another site and learn awesome stuffs on this one.

GL

devwil 6 years, 1 month ago

Opening 98s UTG is by no means maniacal. Snowie opens down to T9s UTG, and my impression is that Snowie is tighter than is necessary.

ChaoRen123 6 years, 1 month ago

S0lidSnaKe If you are the guy I am thinking about playing on pokerstars.eu, I would advice you to start working both on your technical and mental game instead of spitting your anger on someone who is very likely to have a much higher bb/100 than yours. I've seen some of victor's graphs, and I've seen the way you play poker. Victor's thought process is infinitely more valuable than a random mediocre small stakes player spreading his anger on a well-intentionned guy. If you are not mature enough to realize this, please don't write again on this forum.

Btw in order to make this comment usefull I'll give my 2 cents about this hand:

I like 3barrels, but not with such a ridiculous sizing. Blockers are much more needed as you highen up your sizing, because you will earn a margin gain of the blockers effect as you highen up your sizing.
Keep in mind that bluffing should always be an exploitative play though. If a bluff is -EV, there is absolutely no reason to bet, even for the sake of "balance".
The population tends to overfold to 3barrels, expecially regs, that's why I like the river bet though.

S0lidSnaKe 6 years, 1 month ago

ChaoRen123 (didn't find how to mention yet)
I'm not playing on pokerstars.eu but anyway thank you for the advice, I'm trying to improve both my technical and mental game that's why I'm here also because I understood that repeating things on almost every posts what we learnt on the forum Victor and I are coming from this is not the good way to improve.
There is no anger in my post, please do not malign me because you want to defend your friend, I know he struggled in 2NL trying to reproduce thinking process but not thinking. Making mistake is okay anyway, I make my own but last time I played 2NL and 4NL I crushed those stakes quite hardly.

You would like to make your comment usefull? So share with us your opinion on what I have said and not on how I said it since I think it wasn't disrespectful.

devwil 6 years, 1 month ago

Grunching.

This line seems way too ambitious to me.

There are very few draws OTF for villain to have, and with it being Q high there aren't a ton of obvious overcard floats.

We turn a bunch of equity against a range that has strengthened by calling the flop, but we still have no showdown value and I think the Tc tends to improve villain's flop calls (QT specifically) more than it improves your flop bets. And it's neither a scare card nor a blank; it doesn't change much but it doesn't utterly miss both of you.

So, that's all to say that I'm just taking the free river.

As played, OTR I don't understand overbetting 3x pot. Even if you did have a value hand here, I think it would be super questionable sizing. So, as a bluff, I just think it's needlessly risky when—if villain is folding—they'll fold for less.

Now, as to whether or not to bet at all: I don't think it's unreasonable, but I just don't think it needs to be this much.

Because villain has called flop and turn, they rate to be pretty strong.

Trouble is, the combos of villain's call/call/folds and your value bet/bet/bets are pretty slim on this runout. It's just not the most credible spot, and it's too easy for them to have something like Ac3c here. I think I fire the third barrel, but just not for quite as much because I honestly don't think it's going to work super often.

KaptajnKold 6 years, 1 month ago

I think pre-, flop, and turn are fine and more or less standard. I would bet slightly smaller on the flop, and slightly larger on the turn, but the difference it makes is probably marginal.

The questionable street is the river over-bet. I mean I can see why you did it: You can credibly represent a strong hand, and you have no showdown value. The problem is that with this large bet size, you are representing at least a flush, possibly just a K- or A-high flush. You wouldn't bet this large with top-set or even an (unlikely) straight, because ultimately you could only reasonably expect to be called by a flush. The problem with you representing a flush is that it is a hand that is very much in villain's range, and which you don't block at all. I don't think you can defend making this large river bluff, unless you hold Ac which blocks the nut flush.

S0lidSnaKe 6 years, 1 month ago

I agree but considering we can cbet flop with a decent number of Axcc, what do you think about splitting our range in two bet sizing, one pretty big and another smaller?

HawksWin 6 years, 1 month ago

I think you can play this hand many ways to be honest. As played, 2/3 pot probably accomplishes the same thing as over bet shipping does on the river. With your value hands, you want to be called so why jam them? Maybe ship like A9cc, A8cc or A7cc some small amount of the time, but you block TP/TK combos and he can't have the nut flush blocker so its going to be harder to get called by AQ. I could potentially see over bet shipping AcJx or AcKx since you would block the nut flush, but again, is the over bet on river necessary?

Personally, I just range bet all my 98s combos here for 1/3 on the flop. With this combo in particular, I think you can even check with the intention of giving up unimproved on the turn some of the time and not think too much about it. Always betting your BDFD combos of 98s though.

Turn is interesting. I can see merits to checking (He gives you opportunity to take a free card). I can see merits in betting in the 2/3 pot region (he can be giving up on his spade and diamond BDFD's and continuing with some decent TP's) with the intention of barreling good rivers to get them off said pairs. I can see merits to an over bet too (I like to bet something like 125% pot with AA, KK with a club for value and you will need some bluffs to balance. I think an over bet with your combo is better on Th and Tc than it is on Td or Ts. So in this spot it might be appropriate to over bet some of the time.

Again, as played on river, can probably just choose a size you would use for the majority of your value range and bluff for this size. Choose the larger size when you hold a blocker to some of his calls (AcXx).

Jbarez 6 years, 1 month ago

Main issue with this hand is that he is way less capped than you think - he has similar amount of made flushes on river as you so I dont think its good idea to go crazy like that without blocker. Especially if you shove 3x pot which means that you are trying to represent very narrow range.

On Flop I think your sizing is ok, turn is also fine - I dislike idea of overbetting turn without read that villain overfolds as Tc is way better for his range. On river bluffing is super standard with that hand, but I think you accomplish more with bet around 2/3-3/4 as you can represent wider range for value and its harder for him to bluffcatch you accordingly.

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