NL10: Rush SH trips vs Riverraise
Posted by Zoty79
Posted by
Zoty79
posted in
Low Stakes
NL10: Rush SH trips vs Riverraise
UTG: $7.60
HJ: $10.10
CO: $20.54
BN: $12.25
SB: $11.09 (Hero)
BB: $10.15
HJ: $10.10
CO: $20.54
BN: $12.25
SB: $11.09 (Hero)
BB: $10.15
Villain: 15/14 /4,2 over 2.8k Hands Coldcall BB 6% 3bet BB 5%
Preflop
($0.15)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
7
3
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BB calls $0.20
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BB calls $0.20
Flop
($0.65)
9
3
3
(2 Players)
Hero bets $0.36,
BB calls $0.36
Turn
($1.37)
9
3
3
K
(2 Players)
Hero bets $1,
BB calls $1
River
($3.37)
9
3
3
K
A
(2 Players)
Hero bets $3.10,
BB raises to $8.49, and is all in
Final Pot
What do you think guys? Should i c/c the Turn, to get Value from his Bluffs?? I think he is more Pocket heavy after the flop. Turn bet was i think a clear mistake. But i thought he has maybe AK. But i think AK is more in his 3betrange. And what about river? c/c or bet/fold. I think bet/call is not an option here. He has 17% Riveraggression.
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Sick spot! His line doesn't make any sense. Maybe A3s or K3s, slowplayed 99, KK, AA?
I'm definitely betting this hand 3 times for value. River is probably a bet/fold against him and at these stakes. Check/calling river makes sense but he probably checks back some hands you would've gotten value from and I don't think nits like him bluff this river enough with missed draws.
Why doesn´t make his line any sense??
Because he likely 3bets 99, KK & AA, especially being a nit. So it only makes sense for him to have A3s and K3s which are 2 combos.
Do you really think, he 3bets 99??
I don't know but I think he should. If you're opening 73s you're probably opening 60-70% of hands.
i don´t think, that he realizes that! He even folds bb vs sb 85%
From a game theory aspect we should call here, because sb vs bb ranges should be so wide that A9 becomes a valueshove here. But I think at these Stakes the ranges are tighter so it's close. I think I would call ingame, but I wouldn't be suprise to see A3s here almost always,as he 3bets AA/KK/AK here (I think he calls 99 pre with 5% 3bet).
"i don´t think, that he realizes that! He even folds bb vs sb 85%"
So, if his continuation range is so strong, what do you think he continue with?
Good question! I think he has 99-JJ, maybe slowplayed KK(1) , maybe AKo(6). So, a check on the turn i the better option, i think!
I dont think that players on NL10 would slowplay KK ))
I wouldn't even consider not betting one street without the intention of x/r. We have effectively the nuts untill he shoves on us.
Nasty, but I don't think I would fold it. I `ve seen plenty of Nits calling 3bets with AK both IP and OOP. I do believe Ak is part of his range, and we can be pretty sure he 3bets AA,KK.
Flop: after he calls your cbet he can have A3,9x,(A9,K9 most likely - don't thik he would call anything else PF),Ak and some mid pairs 88-JJ... I don't see nits like him floating flop with KQ,KJ type of hands.
Turn: after he calls turn, his range is getting a lot more narrow. Probably getting rid of all mid pairs, his A9s and continues with AK,99,A3o,A3s, (I don't think he is calling K3 PF, being the nit that he is).
.... now vs that range we are still a 62% favorite.
River: You bet close to pot and he shoves... is he shoving AK in this spot? Maybe, but I`m not 100%, he could have also raised AK on turn for value and protection vs the FD, same goes for A3.
If I would have to pick one hand and not a range, I would say he does have 99s and I would fold, but vs the A3,99,AK we can make the call... especially if you assume that he is calling PF just with A3s (no A3o) your eq goes to almost 70% which is huge and a call is a must.
Zoty, i mistakenly flagged one of your posts as inapproriate, in truth it was a mistake mate, sorry man.
No problem!! It was a big bluff of yours! :-D
i would fold he is playing 15/14 , he probably has 99 here, maybe A3s . On the river, maybe a check call was a better option .
Don't like a check on the river. There are not many hands in villains range that bluff/bet this river (busted diamonds, maybe with Ad).
On his perspective our check can mean that an ace was a scare card for us , but yeah he don´t seem to bet many rivers looking to his 17% River AFq . Otherwise we have to bet fold to his shove . That´s why i prefer check call just in case he bluffs some rivers .
Don't think that a guy who has an 17% AFq no the river bluffjams after we bet, especially at these stakes. At higher stakes that could be fine.
Getting 3:1 on the river is very tempting. Let's break down his value combos:
99 - 3 combos
A3 - 3 combos
K3s - 1 combo
Total - 7 combos
(I hope you realize why he can't have AA/KK/AK)
That means if he's bluffing with 3 or more combos of anything (let's say diamonds) then we can call the river. So hands like 65dd, 87dd, JTdd, QJdd, etc.
Nobody knows the answer to this question. It's up for you to decide.
I was afraid of that :-D Thanks for the discussion guys!
He`s folding 85% which means he`s not defending A3o/K3s ever.
If we exclude KK-AA, it`s just 99, A3s, but i think it makes sense to for him to flat KK-AA at least 1/3 of the time, so let`s give him 2 combos of each.
Postlop considering he`s a nit, he most likely folds all of his 8xdd-Qxdd when the king hits, and continues with Kxdd-Axdd which he almost never turns into a bluff on the river when he has showdown value.
Basically i think this guy has close to zero bluffs in his range on the river and we have an easy explo bet/fold.
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