NL10 river decision

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NL10 river decision

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) CO: $12.42
BN: $10.10
SB: $17.16
BB: $10.89
UTG: $12.50 (Hero)
MP: $12.04
BN: 21/14 after 147 hands, no reads.
SB: 29/21. I have seen him check down second pairs multiple times. I feel like he's quite polarized when he bets.
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is UTG with T T
Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BN calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, BB folds
Flop ($1.00) Q 7 K
SB checks, Hero checks, BN checks
Turn ($1.00) Q 7 K 8
SB bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, BN calls $0.50
Given my feel for SB's game, I think that when he bets, he either has hands that have zero showdown value, 56s-JTs, 88. His small bet makes me think that 88 and 78 are unlikely.

I don't like the BN call, I think his range beats mine and I don't want to bluff the river against him. I think his range is something like 45s-78s, 89-JQ, 99-JJ, AJ, AQ.
River ($2.50) Q 7 K 8 8
SB checks, Hero checks, BN bets $1.80, SB folds, Hero calls $1.80
Given my "read" on SB, I feel like I can check behind and win the pot vs him.

When BTN bets, I put him on 78, 88, 9T, JT, 56. I think 88 is a bit unlikely because he'll sometimes raise the turn with 88.

8 Comments

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Kalupso 7 years, 2 months ago

I understand you have some pretty good reads and things. However I'm a little concerned those reads don't apply in this situation when you open UTG and get called in two places. How do you think his tendencies are in this spot compared to other spots? What tendencies do you usually observe in pots with 3 players like here and two players called a turn bet?

Kalupso 7 years, 2 months ago

TT is a fold on the turn with most players even against half pot. River is a very clear fold because BTN will have almost no bluffs except for hands that include Ts and you hold Ts in your hand so he can't have it.

Colin252 7 years, 2 months ago

If you filter where you called 2 streets turn and river with 3rd pair in a 3 way pot, I'd wager you're losing a lot of bb. In small stakes where people don't bluff enough generally, especially multiway and especially otr I can't imagine why on earth you'd showdown here. Other than is that TT looked good preflop. I seriously doubt you'd defend A7s otr, but it's the same hand - pure bluffcatcher.

Ion 7 years, 2 months ago

You'd fold on the turn? Or would you, given the feeling for sb's game, call turn and fold river against BTN?

Colin252 7 years, 2 months ago

Yes I'd likely fold the turn.

You saw the guy show down 2 hands, depending on the circustances of those hands, they might in no way relate to this situation.
So you're basically making BIG adjustments which woud be really bad v most players. You'd need a very good reason to do that, your "read" here isn't near reliable/applicable enough to want to make major strategic adjustments which would be very VERY bad v the pool.

You so want the read to be correct you're being guided by that instead of objectively assessing how useful the information you have is, if at all.
Basically you're trying really hard to "outplay" the guy when in truth he's probably so bad that by just value betting appropriately and folding well you'll crush him without all the fancy "read based" nonsense. It's not a sexy answer and doubtless the opposite of what you wanted to hear, but that doesn't make it any less true I'm afraid.

Kalupso 7 years, 2 months ago

Good points and pretty much the same as I said.

the opposite of what you wanted to hear

That is why I tried to ask a question instead of say it right away. It's supposed to be easier to get the message across by asking questions when you say the opposite of what the other person would like to be true.

Colin252 7 years, 2 months ago

Didn't read all the comments first....
Yes, I'm less tactful than you fo sho.
It frustrates the hell out of me that struggling micro players {i been there too} make all these - mostly emotional - attachments to things they think are a big deal or they want them to be a big deal when in truth these are the exact same things holding them back from doing well and if they focused on less "sexy" things they'd do so much better.
Like sorry OP I'm not trying to bag on you and if you want to PM me I'll for sure help you out with anything you are really struggling on by way of an applogy for this rant -
To be so confident you have a "good read" on a player when in reality you don't know too much from 2 unrelated Sd hands, but in the same breath you don't know what the pool does on average either multiway or otr - when you have literally thousands more examples of that than you do of this guy showing down is kind of ridiculous. It illustrates both paying too much attention to the wrong things - as one of these is a very reliable indicator of how to make informed strategy choices and one of them just isn't - and the logical blindspots that these false knowledge ideologies can create.
ie must adjust/outplay this guy by trying to win the hand
v
the pool under bluffs i'll just fold EZ game

One of these sounds like you're a badass who won't back down, but the other one will win you a lot of money at micro stakes.

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