NL10 - River Checkraise
Posted by blindninja
Posted by
blindninja
posted in
Low Stakes
NL10 - River Checkraise
SB: $10
BB: $12.78
UTG: $11.09
HJ: $10
CO: $6.70
UTG folds, HJ raises to $0.30, CO folds, Hero calls $0.30, SB folds, BB folds
My thoughts:
Villain probably has: 77+ A2s+ ATo+ KTs+ KJo+ QJs+
Pre-flop: I call because if I 3bet I will only fold out weaker hands, all the stronger cards he will continue with beat me. By calling I can get value of KJ-, QJ-, and good cards for second nutflush and possible straight where I can extract value from because he holds a lot of AT+
Flop: Fairly certain we both missed, he either A) c-bets for value here with 77+ or B) c-bets as a bluff. I call because if I hit my K or Q on the turn he will probably fire another barrel with his pair, which I beat most off or he checks to me and I can float him.
Turn: My equity increased (or not... see extra question) because I now have a flushdraw, villain c-bets the turn again with probably his 77+, A3 or with his flushdraw. (Extra question: If the river gives another diamond and he goes all-in he will probably have Adxd right, because I block all lower flushes?)
River: Good card for me, he missed his draws and I might get value of lower pairs than mine. He checks to me and I bet, he then goes all-in. What can he have? AA, AK, KK, A3?
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KK, 77, 33, 44 are the most likely hands imho. He doesn´t seem to be overly aggressive, so I´d slightly discount hands like AA or A3 because you can easily have a set yourself.
In any way the river is a pretty easy fold once he shoves. Calling and bluffcatching would be pure gambling with negative expectation because even if he bluffs once in a blue moon it´s not as if he had no valuecombos. And his x/shove makes absolute sense against your perceived range which contains a bunch of hands that won´t call a bet anyways but bluff/valuebet themselves.
Agree with Fiszkh. You beat almost nothing but some missed draws that would probably just bomb the river and he hasn't been very aggressive either.
What do you guys think about the flop float btw? What about raising or just folding?
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