nl10 qto in BB could be bet/call otr?
Posted by deyverpoker
Posted by
deyverpoker
posted in
Low Stakes
nl10 qto in BB could be bet/call otr?
Blinds: $0.08/$0.16 (6 Players)
BN: piglet236: $17.65
SB: Valongash305: $14.16
BB: deyver: $47.20 (Hero)
UTG: mariobenhur: $17.12
MP: waloledezma: $9.14
CO: VillaBolti7: $13.03
SB: Valongash305: $14.16
BB: deyver: $47.20 (Hero)
UTG: mariobenhur: $17.12
MP: waloledezma: $9.14
CO: VillaBolti7: $13.03
Preflop
($0.24)
deyver is BB with
T
Q
, , , ,
Flop
($1.76)
J
5
9
, , ,
Turn
($5.60)
J
5
9
3
, ,
River
($5.60)
J
5
9
3
K
,
hi
i dont know how many bluffs he could have here. what you think is better? V is unknown 50/33 in 6 hands
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People dont bluff the river at NL10, specially when you are uncapped. You can have all the strong hands so it doesnt make sense for villain to bluff raise you. Also, what can be bluffing here with? Turning 9x into a bluff? I really, really doubt it. This is just a bet/fold for sure
Fwiw I think that QTo is a pretty mandatory fold preflop against a pot size raise and a caller both of which have position on you.
Calling the river raise really sucks but I don't think I'd be able to find the fold button to be honest. We're also at the tip top of our range here. Or can you think of any other hands stronger than that which we get to the river with as played? I doubt we have flushes other than the 1 combo of QcTc in our range here (Jc9c is most likely a x/r on the flop, AcJc, Ac9c are two combos I could have in my range but most likely only some percentage of the time since I would often opt for the preflop squeeze with those combos.)
While I partially agree with Saulo's sentiment posted above, I also don't think recreational player bluffs much in this spot. But I think that there is a decent chance he could be overvaluing part of his range or completely butchering a hand, randomly clicking buttons etc.
The part I don't agree with is that we are uncapped. I think we are heavily capped in terms of flushes, sets and two pair. Yes we can have KJ, we can have K9s, but we can't have any of the top sets and the only flush in our range that makes any sense is QcTc since we fold the other ones to flop bet so unless I am misinterpreting something Saulo is suggesting folding 100% of our range otr.
Now don't get me wrong please what Saulo is suggesting might be totally correct I really don't know for sure but for argument's sake I'd like to think I have a range otr with which I can bet-call a raise, and those would be my QTs combos. Now if you have QTo in your range for defending preflop it means you will get into this spot with a ton more combos of QT which will obviously end up being a very costly proposition against a villain who doesn't have any bluffs in his river raising range on this board if we feel obliged to call every single time.
What I'm trying to say is that QT is really top of our range here, and I think if we decide to defend this kind of hand in this situation we have to bite the sour apple and commit on the river otherwise we can only call 1 combo (QcTc) and even that is not fun because villain can have every single nut flush combo in his range which is obviously very bad for us.
For those of you who have read my other posts it is probably clear by now that I have hard time folding top part of my range even when fully aware that villain has very few or even zero bluffs in certain spots heh.
Sorry for my long winded posts today I feel like I'm about to get sick and my mind is feeling a bit delirious.
I'm gonna have a lot of flushes by this river...QcTc, Tc8c, Tc9c, 9c8c, 9c7c, QcJc, JcTc, Jc8c, and so on...QTo isnot by any means the top of my range here. I don't know about yours.
As I said in a previous post, making range calls where people have no bluffs is just a mistake. This is one of them. We are always beat here.
Heh yeah the hands you mentioned in your range are a standard squeeze or fold for me. I'd almost never call T8s or J8s preflop and I would always 3bet squeeze QJs and JTs especially against this size open. I guess the way we construct our ranges is part of reason why we have different opinions. And I'm not saying yours is wrong fwiw. I was just pointing out my view of things.
As you can see since I squeeze most of those hands in my case the QTs are the top of my range maybe Ac9c I deem good enough to call preflop but that would be the only nut combo I can really think of. And even Ac9c I might not get to the river because I fold to the flop bet since it is 3way cbet from villain and a call from button.
But yeah I'm aware of my problem folding top of my range.
Do you think that against villain's river range in this spot weak flushes ( QcJc, JcXc, TcXc, 9c7c etc) have higher relative strength than QT since villain is basically repping the nuts? It's the same problem no? It's the same problem if he has no bluffs we have to fold even those right?
People usually overplay small flushes so I would definitely bet/call with Q high flushes or better. J high flushes might be close because we block most of his weak flush combos that call the flop with the Jc. Would have to analyze the spot in more detail to be sure
good point bro , and also call < potsized raise (14.5bb) < fold
or potraise > fold depending on their f3b and postflop play
QTo doesnt play gut in mw OOP even if it was minraise
i dont think Villa check FD OTT and hero can donk TP or 2P or set or str8 OTR so i would just GII expect to win
Player pool is really passive, you definitely can't discount flushes from his range.
bet/fold river because people don't bluff in that spot at nl10
if u never/dont b/c how do u know then that they dont bluff there?
I did bet/call in these kind of spots a lot and I haven't seen any bluffs.
ok then b/f gut , still its not gonna be like big mistake for such a little raise, nid to be gut not often
tru dat bat ppls don't blaff her' at all
I think you are taking this bet/fold stuff a little too far. BTN can take this line with a ton of air and any pocket pair with a club is a bluffing candidate againsg BB. QT is very close between a value raise or not for villain and QcT is probably a clear value raise here because it is just a small shove left. It is very much possible you will chop at a high frequency.
In theory, but not in practice. The pool is not filled with aggro regs that will bluff raise the river with blockers or this kind of thing. I'm pretty familiar with NL10 and I would be really surprised if calling here weren't -EV
it's nl16 and if it's zoom then people will not raise any QT combos but at normal tables I can see it being a bet/call
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