NL10 - JJ in trouble

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NL10 - JJ in trouble

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (4 Players) BN: $19.98
SB: $11.62 (Hero)
BB: $12.43
CO: $15.65
Villain: VPIP: 20, PFR: 15, 3B: 4, AF: 1,1, Hands: 672
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is SB with J J
CO calls $0.10, BN raises to $0.34, Hero raises to $1.10, BB folds, CO folds, BN calls $0.76
Flop ($2.40) 9 8 7
Hero bets $1.20, BN calls $1.20
Turn ($4.80) 9 8 7 9
Hero bets $2.10, BN calls $2.10
River ($9.00) 9 8 7 9 K
Hero checks, BN bets $4.50, Hero

Any thoughts appriciated on the line in general

7 Comments

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Cozacu 9 years, 5 months ago

IMO:
-PF is fine, but you could go larger, like 13BB (make sure you are playing the same with AK,QQ+)
-Flop fire is fine (hand needs protection and you can get value from worse)
-On turn we could go either way I think, but I`m still ok with betting, villain won't have too many 9x in his range, hand still needs protection.
-River: I don't think he will have many Kx, and he will quite a few busted draws.

So if he gets to the river with something like:
JJ-TT,T9s,AhKh,AhQh,KhQh,AhJh,KhJh,AhTh
(I think 88,77,KK,AA - would 3b flop a decent % of the time & KK/AA re`raise PF)
(some strong non T9, 9x combos would often raise turn)

vs such a range you have 63.3% eq and you only need something over 25% so that would make this a call.

OFC he might not bet 100% of his missed draws but I think we still have a +ev call.

tehthys 9 years, 5 months ago

Thanks for answer. Some good points. I struggle with these river call /fold. I am just not sure that many on NL10 is doing these river bluffs, so I usually end up folding, but ofc some ppl will and this could be a spot where it would make sense I see now

Knoxox 9 years, 5 months ago

I'm not sure about the turn. Betting & x/calling both seem kind of awkward to me.
As played it's player dependent. We have ~40-50% if he barrels all his missed draws and if he always raises good hands before the river but at 10nl people aren't bluffing that much and his AF is kind of low. I tend to fold these kind of spots.

Limp Limpson 9 years, 5 months ago

I'd start xc otf, we need to strenghten our checking range on this board and JJ seems like a decent candidate, since vast majority of his continuing range has a lot of equity anyway. Sure, we need protection is another argument for betting, but I'd prefer to not bloat the pot when I know that vast majority of runouts suck for our range.

as played xc ott, as played prob call vs that sizing, fold vs $6+....I know, its arbitrary, Im just sayin what I'd do

Disharmonist 9 years, 5 months ago

"continuing range has a lot of equity anyway." ..."vast majority of runouts suck for our range." This is a golden statement, that many of us should get into our heads. When we valuebet but we hardly will be happy value bet on later streets, we can once forget about protection. You only bet for protection against air hands that have random EQ, but we dont protect against T9 that will never fold and if he would we actually lose value.

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