NL10 | Good spot to bluff-raise river?
Posted by HinduReal
Posted by
HinduReal
posted in
Low Stakes
NL10 | Good spot to bluff-raise river?
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (5 Players)
BB: $12.94
UTG: $10.00
CO: $11.34
BN: $11.98 (Hero)
SB: $11.78
UTG: $10.00
CO: $11.34
BN: $11.98 (Hero)
SB: $11.78
Villain is 24/19, AG: 1.8 over 173 hands
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is BN with
J
9
, , ,
Flop
($0.55)
7
5
4
, ,
Turn
($0.95)
7
5
4
3
,
River
($0.95)
7
5
4
3
8
,
Final Pot
BB wins $0.91
Rake is $0.04
Rake is $0.04
I wonder if the river is a good spot to bluff-raise. I expect villain to call flop with many overcards, particularly with (BD)FDs and to lead that river with a bunch of his air. While villain has a couple of 6s in his range, I certainly have more. Also, I block the nuts.
Reasonable line?
Loading 13 Comments...
In my opinion the 9h is a bad card for us, blocking some potential river bluffs, and seem to me that blocking 69 here is kinda irrelevant, as he will for sure bet/call with any 6x hand. From my understanding, the 10nl pool would have a though time folding 87 or 75 for example, which are the hands our raise is looking to fold, and i am not so sure that there will be a lot of floating OTF, therefore don,t think it's such a great bluff spot. If I were to choose bluffs I would pick A5/A7 blocking 56/67 and A6.
Why would you check turn 6x at double flushdraw texture?
I would just cut thinking about blockers and stuff, its not that close. Its just not a spot where I expect NL10 population to fold enough against raise.
I wouldn't. But if a villain took such a line, I wouldn't disregard it. Plenty FPS around in the micros...
I suppose you're right. My question - and I failed to point that out - was meant more in terms of this being a spot to bluff in theory vs well-balanced, thinking opposition. I.e. "if we had a bluff-raising range in this spot, what would it look like and would hero's hand be a part of it". I definitely wasn't clear enough.
I love that so many micro player want to discuss blind theory.
What does the pool do on average via this line?
What's the exploit to that?
Now lock nodes and run that in a solver and see what it tells you to do.
I can promise it's nothing like the "true/original" gto strat.
Yeah, I get that and fully agree. But I think there is some merit in knowing what one should do in theory in a given spot. That doesn't equate to executing it if there's a more +EV alternative. I think a good thought process looks like this:
Thus, getting back to the hand above, I think this is a board where we want to have a raising range OTR. Therefore I wonder what a good bluffing range would look like - even if I might decide not to have a bluffing range at all in practice. I think peri0404's suggestion makes sense.
Agree with your general thought process.
GTO is mostly logic.
BUT there is an obvious logical problem with your idea that we should have a raising range here, can you spot it?
Hint - what does GTO always do with EVERY hand in it's range at any decision point?
Colin please explain more im curious
I might be at a loss here. Please elaborate :)
GTO will ALWAYS take the most +ev line. So here, and in almost every spot, the NUTs will get bet a hell of a lot more often then it gets checked. This is especially true when we are IP, as passing up whole betting rounds with no money going in just does not make one ounce of sense.
So...
6x becomes the nuts on the turn effectively, there will be only a tiny portion like a few % of ALL 6x in our range getting checked. Think about it, by checking 6x we are saying that taking one street out of the game or not putting money in is HIGHER EV than putting money in with the nuts.
Obviously that's not logical, and so gto will almost always bet.
When gto almost always bets all very strong hands, what will it raise with after checking back turn?
The simple answer is almost nothing. It's always balanced and as it hs almost no value, it also has almost no bluffs.
So in theory, we shouldn't have a raising range.
In practice, people are pretty scared by the 1 card str8, so they won't bet so often as you think, and even when you do raise, they will assume you bet 6x ott rather than x as you did to get here, and call anough to disuade you from bluffing.
Interestingly, as it is assumes both in gto and in real world that IP bets all nuts ott, what else should we be doing a lot of?
U should cbet this flop texture with polarized range imo, so I would check back flop and might start bluffing on a turn if checked
I'm on board with this unless you know villain overfolds flop. Even then he likely doesn't over fold flop as much as he overfolds v delayed cb. I like x flop half pot turn/half pot river.
population is defending this flop correct I guess, maybe even over defend.
Would be nice to see pio analysis on this flop, I think bb shouldnt even defend his bottom pairs without straight or flsuh equity
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