NL10 Fold to Turn Raise with Full House (medium) against TAG?
Posted by aizen
Posted by
aizen
posted in
Low Stakes
NL10 Fold to Turn Raise with Full House (medium) against TAG?
Pacific, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $10.64 (106.4 bb)
BB: $2 (20 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): $10 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $11.23 (112.3 bb)
MP1: $6 (60 bb)
MP2: $16.90 (169 bb)
MP3: $11.28 (112.8 bb)
CO: $1.50 (15 bb)
BTN: $10 (100 bb)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A
T
Hero raises to $0.30, UTG+2 calls $0.30, 5 folds, SB calls $0.25, BB folds
Flop: ($1) 4 T
4
(3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.75, UTG+2 folds, SB calls $0.75
Turn: ($2.50) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.25, SB raises to $3.75, Hero calls $2.50
River: ($10) 3 (2 players)
SB bets $5.84 and is all-in, Hero calls $5.20 and is all-in
Tag is 23/19 with AF 4
Check/raise turn is 8% with reasonable sample size.
Would you fold here? What exactly is 8%? Always better than what I have currently have?
I thought about his calling Range is something like this (Flop):
QQ-22,AQo-AJo,KQo,AQs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s
Turn I would give him for the check/raise range:
QQ-TT,ATs,KTs,QTs,JTs,T9s
This Range have much more Equity than my Hand however I thought he could do this for example with some weaker Tx's which I beat. But as combo wise I think he have just much more hands which beats me and not the other way round.
(8 Combos which I beat and 13 in which he beats me) 2 combos for tie.
This assumes that he would check/raise with T9s? I am not so experienced in the micro stakes because I am starting to play again but I guess he wouldn't do that with T9s, JTs and QTs ...
Is it correct to fold on the turn? Are tags bluffing here too much so that I have to call because the check/raise range on the turn looks so strong?
Loading 13 Comments...
a PP hits a set close to 11% of the time.....
From my experience at nitring, UTG+2 usually calls way tighter than your perceived range.
I wouldent hate a fold, probably about break-even against QQ(3)[50%], JJ(6), ThTd, Tx(10) .And like you said he probably wont bet his Tx @ 100%.
Thanks for your answer. :)
I mean the SB Calling range after UTG has called. Usually I think they adapt their range to call a bit more (like the suited connectors)
Yes SB will be calling wider ....
You are right :D so you can probably give him more than five combos of Tx
But it really wont affect that much because it is a split, usually calling for a split is not the best.
Isn't raising Tx/JJ/QQ OTT really terrible here when we have all TT/QQ+ in our range? In fact, should we even have a turn c/r range at all in SB's position?
This would be the sickest spot to possibly bluffraise turn with. Some donk might raise Tx here but that doesnt matter as you only call for a split, I dont see many QQ++ either because preflop was a flat. Altough it is very rare combos wise I think you run into TT or quads here most of the time against someone halfway solid.
Best bluffcatcher would be AThh btw, blocking TT and A4h. Yet I doubt that matters a ton,
Results please
stop being results oriented ;D
I have the hypthesis that I am always beat with my board TP vs x/raises on triped boards. I want to falsifiy it. If it dies falsify I have to reevalute my logic and consider different logic approaches. If it doesnt, I can fortifiy a certain exploitative move in my repertoire that can give me and edge.
Generally speaking I don't think people will try and bluff triped boards, since it's so unlikely a player will fold a good pair, so your hypothesis is probably true given heavy action.
SB did raise 4h5h. So I did run into quads.
oh well :D get em next time
QQ, AQo-AJo, KQo, AQs-ATs, KQs I think this part of his range will squeeze preflop more often then not but it's plausible he can have these hands, but atleast I think QQ will squeeze preflop.
OTT if he's a big fish he might x/r any Tx here but generally speaking no one will raise Tx OTT here because it's clearly a pure protection bet+ he could easily be owning himself since you can easily have JJ+ here.
Given you have a strong range here it just makes it less likely he will try and bluff you, I mean you have ATs now but you would also take this line with JJ-AA. So given that I don't expect you to be bluffed here almost ever, and also since he's a TAG I'm not sure I could come up with any kind of bluff for him. I think the worst hand he will ever show up with here is JJ but at a really small frequency.. I think you're running into quads more often then not. His line is quite bad however because since your so over pair heavy I don't see why he would raise here, it's unlikely your folding however good players know that anyones raising range here is extremely narrow... it'd be better for him to x/c turn and lead river.
I think you should have check this turn back, you can't get three streets of value from hands like 55-99 and those hands are likely folding turn once you bet, it'd be better to check turn and try to bet river to get value from those hands. Your giving him a free card with 2-6 outs which isn't really bad since he might bluff river once you check this turn, and I think more often then not you can safely fold J Q K rivers if he chooses to bet those because those cards are likely in your range making it less likely he will try to represent them. If he checks those high cards you can easily consider going for thin value.
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