NL10 - Can I fold this river?
Posted by PhilBaj
Posted by
PhilBaj
posted in
Low Stakes
NL10 - Can I fold this river?
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
BN: $26.95
SB: $7.56
BB: $11.17
UTG: $27.96
MP: $10.09 (Hero)
CO: $20.64
SB: $7.56
BB: $11.17
UTG: $27.96
MP: $10.09 (Hero)
CO: $20.64
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is MP with
Q
Q
, , , ,
Flop
($1.95)
9
2
J
, ,
Turn
($3.37)
9
2
J
7
, ,
River
($6.91)
9
2
J
7
K
, ,
Final Pot
CO wins $6.60
Rake is $0.31
Rake is $0.31
What you guys think can i call this river or not. I can't find many hands we beat and not enough bluffs from him but I don't know.
Loading 5 Comments...
Villain is using some pretty strange sizings. I would call the river and expect to see some AJ or just a bluff often enough.
I can see raising flop smallish here some of the time with QQ and KK. You can get value from TP/TK hands/Flush Draws and also deny equity to those big Aces and Kings that are in his range.
As played, you probably have to call river with the price you are getting. He can be value betting worse and also bluffing missed A high FD’s.
Agree with HawksWin and Samu Patronen . River bet is small enough to call.
Do you have any reads on villain? I think knowing his 3bet % and frequency and how often he is firing every street after 3 betting is whats really important in order to make a sound decision in this spot.
From a pure math standpoint the river bet is a call for the price youre getting here. Im going to assign him a pretty tight 3betting range without any further info. The King on the river is kind of tricky. Were only beaten by 3 combos of nines; 3 combos of Kings; 3 combos of Jacks; 6 combos of Aces; 12 combos of AK; 6 combos of KQ for a total of 33 combos.
Main problem is that a lot of the hands that he was previously semi-bluffing with like KQ and AKs now beat us on the river.
The only hands in his range we actually beat are AJ and AQ for a total of 28 combos.
For the price youre getting I would call but just from looking at how the hand played out I assume were beat here.
For that price I guess you call and hope that he's making a thin value bet with AJ or is just clicking buttons. Pocket jacks makes the most sense for that sizing though where he thinks that you have limited bluff catchers that are good enough to call that river with in your range due to his blockers.
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