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NL10 - Can I fold this river?

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

NL10 - Can I fold this river?

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: $26.95
SB: $7.56
BB: $11.17
UTG: $27.96
MP: $10.09 (Hero)
CO: $20.64
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is MP with Q Q
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.30, CO raises to $0.90, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.60
Flop ($1.95) 9 2 J
Hero checks, CO bets $0.71, Hero calls $0.71
Turn ($3.37) 9 2 J 7
Hero checks, CO bets $1.77, Hero calls $1.77
River ($6.91) 9 2 J 7 K
Hero checks, CO bets $1.90, Hero folds
Final Pot CO wins $6.60
Rake is $0.31

What you guys think can i call this river or not. I can't find many hands we beat and not enough bluffs from him but I don't know.

5 Comments

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HawksWin 6 years, 10 months ago

I can see raising flop smallish here some of the time with QQ and KK. You can get value from TP/TK hands/Flush Draws and also deny equity to those big Aces and Kings that are in his range.

As played, you probably have to call river with the price you are getting. He can be value betting worse and also bluffing missed A high FD’s.

nrgy 6 years, 10 months ago

Do you have any reads on villain? I think knowing his 3bet % and frequency and how often he is firing every street after 3 betting is whats really important in order to make a sound decision in this spot.

From a pure math standpoint the river bet is a call for the price youre getting here. Im going to assign him a pretty tight 3betting range without any further info. The King on the river is kind of tricky. Were only beaten by 3 combos of nines; 3 combos of Kings; 3 combos of Jacks; 6 combos of Aces; 12 combos of AK; 6 combos of KQ for a total of 33 combos.

Main problem is that a lot of the hands that he was previously semi-bluffing with like KQ and AKs now beat us on the river.

The only hands in his range we actually beat are AJ and AQ for a total of 28 combos.

For the price youre getting I would call but just from looking at how the hand played out I assume were beat here.

james 6 years, 10 months ago

For that price I guess you call and hope that he's making a thin value bet with AJ or is just clicking buttons. Pocket jacks makes the most sense for that sizing though where he thinks that you have limited bluff catchers that are good enough to call that river with in your range due to his blockers.

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