NL10 bottom set 3way 3bet pot

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

NL10 bottom set 3way 3bet pot

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (5 Players) SB: $10.40
BB: $10.23
UTG: $16.48 (Hero)
CO: $23.67
BN: $11.06
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is UTG with 8 8
Hero raises to $0.30, CO folds, BN raises to $1.00, SB calls $0.95, BB folds, Hero calls $0.70
Flop ($3.20) T 8 J
SB checks, Hero checks, BN bets $1.53, SB calls $1.53

Ante table so preflop pot is wrong. Both villains are regs, BTN is very aggressive on the button and SB is pretty tight. When he cold calls I think he has TT-KK, AQs, AK. Best line on flop?

20 Comments

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dont_play_jj 8 years, 6 months ago

Call. you've got about 35% against the two ranges you're facing OTF. The only thing you would accomplish by raising is making them fold their worst hands like QQ (If they are decent players).

Quido 8 years, 6 months ago

Wouldn't raising be better on such a wet board? There are so many cards which could make the situations so awkward on the turn.

dont_play_jj 8 years, 6 months ago

If you raise on this flop, you're almost only representing a set. Maybe JTs. But you don't have draws that would be played like this. Otherwise, it would be a bad play considering stack to pot ratio and odds. For example, 99 is a call there.
The only hands that would call you in SB's range facing a raise are JJ-TT, maybe 99.
The only hands that would call you in BTN's range are AA-KK,JJ-TT,Q9s.
Against those range, your hand only has 6% EQ. Your range only has 19% EQ.
So yeah, raising here is not a good play! in my opinion!

dont_play_jj 8 years, 6 months ago

Here it is. 13% considering that he's gonna call his 99s 30% of the time.
http://imgur.com/a/CYW7a

Quido 8 years, 6 months ago

So you are basically counting that either both villains call/raise or none of them will. That is incredibly unlikely. Also if villain no2 flats QQ+ as OP said you think he will fold it on the flop?

If villain2 calls/raises overpairs and both villains are good to go there is still enough equity
http://i.imgur.com/kpMVk07.png

I am sorry I am just not buying your calculations

dont_play_jj 8 years, 6 months ago

Yes I do. If you're raising here, It is for value. The definition of value is getting paid by worse. If you're raising here, you're sometimes gettin paid by worse: some AA, KK... But most of their calling range will beat you. That's the definition of value-cutting.

Quido 8 years, 6 months ago

So if villain1 calls and villain2 folds to your raise it was all of a sudden not for value? I somehow don't get you. Also if villain2 has QQ+ in his range and is not folding an overpair to a flop raise it is a mandatory stack off even if both villains hit the flop.

dont_play_jj 8 years, 6 months ago

http://imgur.com/a/Ds5N4

THIS is the BEST possible case. If both villains can't read ranges. you only have 37% EQ against those guys. This is still value cutting yourself. the ranges I defined before might be a little bit too tight, considering the fact that villains are way too passive and Calling stations. BUT THIS IS IN THE BEST CASE, and it's still no good to raise.

Quido 8 years, 6 months ago

So even in the best scenario villain2 can't hold AA?

Also you have not answered my question. So if villain1 calls and villain2 folds to your raise it was all of a sudden not for value? The vast majority of time you get played back by one villain and not by both at the same time.

dont_play_jj 8 years, 6 months ago

I gave you my point of view. It might be right or wrong, but I have the feeling this is getting nowhere. Let's wait for some more experienced players opinion

antihero 8 years, 6 months ago

Tricky spot with the SB cold-calling. CC 3bet ranges are very JJ-99, AK/AQ/AJs heavy usually. I'm just gonna ignore BU for simplicity as he has the widest range, so I wouldn't be too worried about him. I mean, he can have the rare flopped straight with 97s or a set, but then he would use a bigger sizing I assume.

Based on these assumptions SB range consists of 6 combos of sets, 20 combos of gutshot with overs with AK/AQs, and 6 combos off 99 for the OESD, 12 combos of KK/QQ and maybe some AA traps and AJs/KQs. Considering this range, I think you have to raise and straight shoving is nice. You basically don't want to see any card >6 on the turn. If SB is a nit, he is also probably never folding an overpair here. Additionally, the pot is over 60bb already! So it's completely fine if both villain's fold and you win a big pot without showdown. If SB happens to have JJ/TT... well sometimes you just get coolered ;)

Tom Willetts 8 years, 6 months ago

What's your opinion on shoving my entire continuing range here? I guess this looks like 88-JJ, AQs since I'm usually 4betting QQ+ and AK. So I have 9 sets, 6x 99 and 4x AQ but the "bluffs" have a lot of equity when called. Or would you split range into x/c and x/r? (If SB and BTN were good players)

ienjoyrawfish 8 years, 6 months ago

We can't simply ignore the BTN for simplicity's sake though, his presence in the hand is extremely important. He's 3 bet our UTG open and then cbet a flop 3 way that smashes both ours and SB's cold calling range. I think it's fair to assume that his range here is very strong. And I'm not sure why you assume his sizing is indicative of weakness? This looks like fairly standard sizing for me in a 3 bet pot a little over 100BB deep effective. He can get the money in effectively over 3 streets and is probably sizing it this way with his entire range, no? If anything he should probably make it smaller to avoid an awkward SPR on the turn, or bigger to get the money in over two streets rather than three (arguably preferable given that he's going to have few bluffs here and lots of incentive to protect his equity on this texture),but I imagine a lot of regs, particularly at these limits, just auto 1/2 pot cbet in 3 bet pots, so I wouldn't read anything in to it.

Your pre -flop range for SB looks reasonable, but his continuing range vs. our c/r is obviously going to be extremely different. I would just make a decision based on population reads here. If you think the average 10NL reg is just going to look down at his hand and go "lol overpair, 3 bet pot, 100BB" and shrug his shoulders and stack off, then obviously raise. If, on the other hand, we think these villains are competent enough to realise that us c/r this board vs. 2 players in these positions is an extremely strong line and that AA should be a snap fold when we do so, then calling becomes better. My inkling is that the former is more likely to be true than the latter, so I think I would raise here and chalk it up to a cooler if I get stacked, but I haven't played 10NL online in a while so I could well be wrong.

antihero 8 years, 6 months ago

Probably ok in theory but I'd be cautious to bluff here with the assumption that SB won't fold overpairs. KQs is probably our best bluff then as it blocks his KK/QQ and has decent equity even against a nutted range, while 99 and AQ block his folding range.

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