NL10 Bad river - check or shove anyway?
Posted by Tom Willetts
Posted by
Tom Willetts
posted in
Low Stakes
NL10 Bad river - check or shove anyway?
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
BN: $10.47
SB: $8.35
BB: $11.61 (Hero)
UTG: $10.05
MP: $11.21
CO: $20.01
SB: $8.35
BB: $11.61 (Hero)
UTG: $10.05
MP: $11.21
CO: $20.01
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is BB with
9
Q
, , , ,
Flop
($0.90)
K
J
8
, , , ,
Turn
($1.90)
K
J
8
T
, , ,
River
($7.90)
K
J
8
T
K
,
I might have butchered every street of this hand. Which was the worst?
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Some info about villain might help, beside that I don't you misplayed the hand
Flop: I like the call since BTN has a clear range advantage
Turn: good raise, this is clearly a value raise. Obv villain can have AQ but he also have a lot of holdings that calls that raise. Sets, 2p, AK and KQ
River: not happy about that river but I'm going to shove anyway assuming at NL10 players make a ton of mistakes
The worst is preflop XD. Preflop is a fold if SB is calling an 8% range or something similar. If it's a fish that calls 25%, then you can call.
The river is not a great spot for sure but you should have like 40% equity when called even in some of the worse scenarios and I think that's enough to justify a shove. Checking and allowing IP to polarize his range to better hands for value and bluffing worse (typically counterfeited 2pairs or missed nut FDs) is very bad for the hands EV. It's a very close spot though so maybe check is better when there is a full pot-sized bet left. I'm really not sure here and it's a difficult spot to get certain about what's 100% correct, and especially if we start to make assumptions about what his flop and turn size says about his range. The smaller turn bet should on average skew his range more towards thin value hands (and maybe KK if he understands blocker effects). What hands does he view as thin value OTT? AK? Weak 2pair? I don't think it's skewed 100% towards thin value either but just more than if he bet 70% pot or larger.
You tend not to see to many regs without a full stack, so I'm fairly sure SB is going to be calling too much but I take the point. I agree with the comment about sizing too, it's pretty small for this board in my opinion.
On the river in-game I was more thinking that if I check he might check back AQ but I'll miss value from AK, KQ. If I check and he shoves I probably hate it but have to call anyway because of stoopid game theory.
I think PF is 3bet or fold. Not fond if flatting here 3 way.
As played I also think shoving river is fine. I do think majority of sets will shove turn, which makes the houses slightly less likely., but not sure.
Could someone plz explain to me, why pre should be a fold? Where is my mistake maybe? So we need about 25% Equity, right?
closing the action. IMO there is no reason to give SB a really tight range? flatting SB vs MP-open looks like pretty rec to me:
You "under-realize" your equity and there is 5% rake so you need to multiply equity by 0.95 for rake and whatever amount you realize (0.85?) to get a better estimate of EV. Against 3x open, you need to be ahead of the PFR's range when flatting in BB in games with rake. A wide caller that makes large postflop mistakes doesn't make you call tighter against 3x open but a tight reg will make lots of your hands less playable.
28.3 * 0.95 * 0.85 = 22,85%
Here you risk/call 2bb and the pot will be 9bb OTF so you need to win 2/9 = 22,2%. That makes Q9s a marginal hand so EV will likely be right around 0EV against the ranges you used which are both on the looser end of what you'll commonly see in softer games.
I don't like the equity realization model for finding preflop ranges because it's so prone to errors and you need to make many assumptions. I prefer to just run simulations. The rake impact is slightly worse than 5% of the pot in games with 5% rake. The equity realization can be very difficult to estimate accurately.
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