nl10 AQs facing squeeze ip
Posted by deyverpoker
Posted by
deyverpoker
posted in
Low Stakes
nl10 AQs facing squeeze ip
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (5 Players)
SB: $10.02
BB: $28.78
UTG: $10.88
CO: $10.00
BN: $10.06 (Hero)
BB: $28.78
UTG: $10.88
CO: $10.00
BN: $10.06 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is BN with
Q
A
, , , , , ,
Flop
($3.10)
9
8
A
,
Turn
($6.10)
9
8
A
6
hi. i beleive call preflop and otf is correct. but i donk know what to do ott. If i call, pot going to be too big (12 aprox) and i going to be commited whit TP. I beleive fold is too nit and i beleive raise all in, i am isolating vs better hands. what do you think? whats the better line here??
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Im 3betting this hand myself for value like with 90% frequency on these positions. Call is obv. fine as played.
Turn: villain has still hands like flushdraws/str8 draws and sometimes even weaker AX in his range, so im still calling. Folding to any reasonable river bet by default.
" Folding to any reasonable river bet by default."
am not i commited OTR if i call OTT? can i folding vs reasonable bet OTR?
I'm also 3-betting pre BU vs CO. As played you can't really fold turn just yet. I'm folding river on any heart or 4th to straight, probably calling on blanks, but that depends on the reads I have on villain
thanks but the spot isnt bu vs co.
Of course it is. You are OTB and instead of 3-betting CO's open you flatted, and then you got squeezed
Call turn/call save river will be ok becouse he has weak A and a lot of draw and rare sets and made str8.
What im thinkink is: why we couldnt raise this turn? I think this line will be good becouse it would be a difficult decision for a player and he can make a mistake and call with draw and A weaker.
What do you guys think about pushraise turn?
3bet pre, call flop, call turn and call river I guess although I think he will sometimes show up with AK :/
What you would raise on this turn?
When I see this hand, I try to open up a little bit far away from the situation.
The question by itself is "is it a good call/fold/raise on the turn?". But, try to think in both ranges.
First, your range. What would you call OTB preflop that can call a squeeze, let's say some times AQo 25%, AQs 25%, AJo 50%, AJs 50%, 50% KQs, 25% of AK if you want, 88 75%, 99 75%, TT 25% (rest are 3betting pre).
So I count more or less something around of AJ 2 or 3 combos, AQ 2 or 3 combos, 1 or 2 combos of AK, 3 combos of 88 and 99 (sice we have blockers on the board) and 1 or 2 combos of TT, 2 combos of KQs. So your range is really narrow, and you should be aware of this all the time. We would have something aproximately near 12 to 15 combos. On the flop we fold KQs, since is the worst part of our range and didn't connect, and on the turn we can fold our TT, and still have our AJ, AQ, AK sets. I would fold on the river my AJ, AQ and call with my sets and AK. So now that you know in which part of your range are, you don't feel like you are folding too much, or too little.
But... can we make a deeper analisis including his point of view? We'll try.
From his point of view, he could be 3betting a so different range, so it's pretty hard to make assuptions here, we don't know if he is squeezing 89s, 9Ts, JTs, KJo or something more loose like K9s or JTo, so pretty hard to know what he is cbeting. What we can know is that probably he is squeezing near to 100% of the time AQ and AK and he is fireing at least 2 with AK, and 1 or 2 barrels with AQ, I think at this stake can be both. Don't believe he is betting AJo like that and probably AJs either. So we don't really know what he is doing, but we believe he is multiple barrilng us with something that is chopping or has us beaten (and when we have AQ he is more likely to have AK since we block a Q). So in conclution, we have to pray for him doing something loose like barreling JT, or QT to be ahead.
If we add up everything togheter, I think it's a close call or fold, it depends on what do you think what most of the people is doing that you can lean towards one option or the other.
At the begging you said "If I call the turn, I'm commited", what is to be commited? When are you commited, why? Imho I believe we are commited to a pot with a hand, when we don't have enough hads to end up calling, here is not the case, since we have a couple of AK and sets to call and that end up been a large part of our range.
As much as you widen up your points of view, you can solve the hand in a better way. It's not easy and it takes a lot of study and mastery in the subject to do it correctly.
I hope I was clear enough so it can help, and I'm open to see different points of view about the hand.
Gl!
that was very philosophical.
Nice post. Just wanted to say that "being commited" means that you are no longer able to fold your hand vs villains range given the odds you are going to get in the case villain bets, mostly because your stack is already very small when compared to the size of the pot.
thanks to all for answering.
Disclaimer: I think this is an interesting hand to analyse and I am writing this post without having read the other replies so that my opinion will not be biased because obviously others might already have posted good solutions. I will read through this thread shortly after posting this.
tl;dr incoming:
I'd call or push the turn with AK (12 combos) if I decided to flat with AK pre some of the time (fwiw, I almost never have AK here unless I have squeeze-happy aggro guy in SB/BB), 99-88 (6 combos) call QhJh-JhTh (2 combos) and I'm not sure about calling KhQh since I only have flush outs and I don't think we're getting sufficient implied odds the way stacks are set-up without the additional outs from open ended straight draw and inside straight draw. Maybe shove KhQh as a bluff on turn could be ok since we block big chunk of villain's value betting range but I'm not sure about this at all. One problem I have with this is the current SPR which makes me think we have zero fold equity on the turn. For this reason I think I'd fold what is now medium part of my range AQs-ATs (9 combos), JTs without the flushdraw (3 combos) KhQh (1 combo).
Therefore I'd be continuing with 20 combos (includes AK), and folding 13 combos. Off the top of my head I think that's about 65% calls and 35% folds. MDF for this spot would be 75% if I am not mistaken meaning we should call with top 75% of our range but I'm not sure we'd want to get anywhere close to that number in terms of hands we defend. To be honest I feel population at 10nl doesn't barrel this spot nearly balanced/often enough for me to want to call as much as 75% of my range.
The the way I understand it is that if you 4bet AK in this spot - completely removing it from your range, then AQs and AJs definitely becomes top part of your calling range and you should probably call or shove the turn. Otherwise you end up folding way too often, and after all we shouldn't really look to be folding solid top pairs in 3bet pots too often since it can become a costly mistake.
Obviously this analysis is done without any opponent specific reads such as his betting frequencies or squeezing ranges in mind. If he's a nit this becomes a trivially easy fold whereas against a random recreational or aggressive regular I'd be much more inclined to call down or jam the turn myself.
Either way it is a very close spot, and not a hand where I'd expect big profit on a call but on the other side I also wouldn't expect it to be leaving massive amounts of chips on the table for the times I fold.
I'm inclined to suggest to just flip a coin or even better "follow your instinct" since in my opinion whatever you do is not going to be a big mistake either way.
tl:dr, I'd call because top of my range etc. but I would hate it because people in my pool always have at least AK+ in this spot.
I'm gonna read your entire post better later, but the sentence above is just a mistake imo. You shouldn't make "range calls" where people never bluff. I'm not saying this is the case of this hand (might be for NL10), but thinking like that can lead to very -EV calls vs population
@Saulo Ribeiro
Yeah you're absolutely right about this. I just can't help myself sometimes.
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