NL 50 set vs river raise
Posted by Jarci
Posted by
Jarci
posted in
Low Stakes
NL 50 set vs river raise
UTG (Hero): $61.34 (123 bb)
MP: $54.53 (109 bb)
CO: $50.00 (100 bb)
BU: $50.00 (100 bb)
SB: $118.53 (237 bb)
BB: $56.25 (113 bb)
Hello opp is weak reg 19/16/6,7 BU cc 5%, BUvsEP 3b 4% ,WWSF 44% over 20k hands
Pre-Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with 9♥ 9♠
Hero raises to $1.50, 2 players fold, BTN calls $1.50, 2 players fold
Flop: ($3.75) 9♦ T♠ 2♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $1.17, BTN calls $1.17
Iam cbetting whole range on this flop
Turn: ($6.09) 6♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $4.86, BTN calls $4.86
78got there but there is still alot of value from pp,JTs,T9s, some turned fds and maybe QJs
River: ($15.81) K♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $8, BTN raises to $28
On this R maybe i should bet a little bit bigger? 2pairs or set is never folding i dont think he is able to xr bluff OTR against this line
We need around 28% to call his river raise
Against very optimistic raising range TT,66,KTs,QJs,T9s,87s we have 38% but i dont think he is going to xr river with T9s and KTs which maybe isnt even in his range and against TT,66,QJs,87s our equity falls down to 21%
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I would expect bet range OOP strategy in this spot to be significantly inferior to actually checking range. Reason is that simply we are not doing that well at this texture against tight IP callers.
Turn, overbet makes really a lot of sense for your hand and range.
And river, as you noticed, bigger sizing also makes sense.
If you look at whole hand, you didnt really managed to put a lot of money with a hand thats very strong in this spot.
Against a raise river, it looks quite like a headache. I dont think he has a lot of TT/78, i think these are raising quite often flop or turn against sizings that you choosed.
So if we assume that his valueregion is often just QJ, i think i would find a call. Im not expecting a lot of bluffs from 19/16 with low WWSF, but i dont think its impossible in this spot, especially against your 1/2 sizing river. Also, i dont think its impossible for him to find sometimes valueraises with worse.
I guess, what im trying to say is that if we expect him mainly to have 4combos for value, i wouldnt be ready to give opponent enough credit to never bluff or never make polarization mistakes when we need to be good only 28%.
Betting range on this flop and OOP is terrible.
Check range > Mixed strat of check and big c-bet >>> Bet range.
You have a perfect hand to x/r flop and barrel off.
As played, I would call simply because your line seems weird(super small flop bet, big turn bet, again smaller half pot sized river bet) and can tilt a weak opponent into doing something "creative" on the river. But if you had made standard sized barrels on all 3 streets, then it would've been a rather easy fold against a nitty player.
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