NL 50 facing xr + 3barrel
Posted by Jarci
Posted by
Jarci
posted in
Low Stakes
NL 50 facing xr + 3barrel
UTG: $50.75 (102 bb)
MP: $36.95 (74 bb)
CO (Hero): $65.22 (130 bb)
BU: $68.31 (137 bb)
SB: $39.05 (78 bb)
BB: $50.75 (102 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with T♠ A♠
2 players fold, Hero raises to $1.25, 2 players fold, BB calls $0.75
Hello villian is reg 21/17/8,5 ftcb 44, raise vs cb 6%
Flop: ($2.75) T♥ 4♠ 7♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.86, BB raises to $4.20, Hero calls $3.34
standard cb not much else to say when he raise i expect his range to contain all sets maybe some of the time T7s, 89s,56s and few gs+bdfd or maybe 2overs+bdfd
Turn: ($11.15) 5♥ (2 players)
BB bets $9.54, Hero calls $9.54
5h is not the worst card in the deck but also not the best one 86s make a straight but i dont expect him to call 86o preflop so there is only few combos of 86s and he could gain some eq with his bluffs which now hit fd
River: ($30.23) J♥ (2 players)
BB bets $17.75, CO (Hero) folds
This is probably the worst card in the deck 89 made straight, its also in the hearhs so flush got there, J9,J8 made tp but i dont think he is going to barrel Jx on the river so this is relatively easy fold i would say
But my questions are am i somewhere wrong in my thought process?
Would you call if river is :1) 7d 2) blank
Loading 2 Comments...
Hey,
Flop looks fine, we can probably favor using a larger bet size with the AT given how dynamic this board is vs the bb range. Turn is good of course. I agree that river is likely the worst card in the deck for us, and a very very difficult one for our opponent to have enough bluffs on. He might have some stuff like 76, 65 maybe 87 (However with this players flop cbet raise% I really doubt it) I think we can pretty safely pitch the AT and assume he isn't going to be good enough to bluff this Jh properly.
7d being the best river we can hope for, both reducing his sets and T7 combinations as well as not improving basically any of his bluffs, we are definitely not folding our AT if it comes. A brick river may be slightly closer but seeing how very few of the flop bluffs improved I would need a good exploitative reason to find a fold.
Cheers.
Just as a point, i think he's probably x/r flop a mix of bluffs including FDs, 89s, 56s, GS, maybe some Axs with the BDFD. I don't think average villains are turning 56 into a bluff on the turn too often but still a call. RIver I think is an easy fold on this card, you have a fair few flushes yourself, some two pair and JJ to call with and as you say, all his draws got there.
On a blank it probably comes down to what opponents river bet and WWSF is. If its super low over a reasonable sample then explo folding this seems fine, otherwise its closer. I'd prefer not to block some of his Ax draws though.
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