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NL 5- QQ Overpair fold on Flop...

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

NL 5- QQ Overpair fold on Flop...

Flop I bet for protection and thin value. I am overfolding to a huge extent here but I barely see bluffs from villain. 9T he wont be 3betting often in these positions. AK is contibetting or check-calling. AJ is contibetting from this player type.

Hand History for Game 1111111111 (Poker Stars)
$5.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, May 08, 12:31:21 ET 2019
Table Donati (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( $7.18 USD ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 9, 3B: 20, AF: 0,0, Hands: 23
Seat 2: Player2 ( $5.16 USD ) - VPIP: 33, PFR: 33, 3B: 33, AF: 1,0, Hands: 3
Seat 3: Player3 ( $5.70 USD ) - VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 9, AF: 3,0, Hands: 132
Seat 4: Player4 ( $5.88 USD ) - VPIP: 16, PFR: 9, 3B: 0, AF: 1,0, Hands: 43
Seat 5: Hero ( $5.88 USD ) - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 6, AF: 2,0, Hands: 55048
Seat 6: Player6 ( $16.86 USD ) - VPIP: 27, PFR: 27, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 15
Player2 posts small blind [$0.02 USD].
Player3 posts big blind [$0.05 USD].
* Dealing down cards *
Dealt to Hero [ Qc Qs ]
Player4 folds
Hero raises [$0.13 USD]
Player6 folds
Player1 folds
Player2 folds
Player3 raises [$0.50 USD]
Hero calls [$0.42 USD]
* Dealing Flop * [ Jd, 3s, 8h ]
Player3 checks
Hero bets [$0.45 USD]
Player3 raises [$1.05 USD]
Hero folds
Player3 wins $0.60 USD
Player3 wins $1.94 USD from main pot

4 Comments

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doranonis 5 years, 10 months ago

So what are you putting him on? He is 3betting 9 % of hands and you are way ahead on that range. Only JJ, 88 , kk and AA beat you.I think I would call or sometimes even shove here. Not sure if it is the correct play but I think folding is bad as you have big range advantage. It would be worth checking the stats how he plays from the big blind, I think that is most important here. Also, 132 are too few to make such huge laydowns what do you think? It would be interesting to see how solvers played that hand.

belrio42 5 years, 10 months ago

Villain has a 9% 3-bet stat and pretty large aggression factor.

Villain could be playing a "full range check from OOP" strategy on this board. Aggro players love to play this strategy. Against an aggro player who likes to play this strategy, the correct play is often to check behind as the IP player.

As played, he could be value-betting worse, like AJ. Or he could be bluffing. I wouldn't fold QQ.

It seems to me that often you're making pretty big laydowns based on your reads. Keep in mind that you don't actually know what your opponent is doing, and positing a worst-case scenario is just an assumption of yours. If your assumption is wrong, you're making a very big mistake.

On the other hand, if you call a reasonable amount with your range, you'll make money no matter what. If he's so nitty so as to only check-raise KK+ and JJ here, you'll make money on the times where he doesn't have those hands (which is the vast majority of the time).

TGMezza 5 years, 10 months ago

His check raise is absolutely tiny, it's barely over a min raise. He risked 1.05 to win 1.49 so if you're not defending an overpair then villain can run this play on you on any board with any 2 and profit because you're only defending 2 pair+ at this point. I don't want to meme to distract from the hand itself but just fold your queens pre if this is how you stand up to pressure in 3B pots with them.

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