yes you are overthinking and overestimating their ability to fold anything

do not go for balanced gto bet sizes, just maximize bet sizes to get all in on the river reasonably with an all in jam ~half pot

this shoulda been a full stack vs utg, raising big vs the cbet is very good and now you keep it up and turn your hand face up as TT/66/JT with a big turn bet for a river shove for stacks

you gatta go super big dick energy chad mode here and if you do see real evidence of someone folding overpairs here then add bluffs, no smol pp sizes only big dongsizings

principle here is that of you suspect someone is capable of folding you dont size smaller with value to get more calls because now your lowering the ev of your value range, instead you just keep it big and add bluffs into that range so that your bluffs have higher ev but you dont decrease the ev of your value so your net ev is higher

you wont be able to implement the above until you start exploit getting max value with your value first so playing the nuts for stacks is like training for that and once you have EVIDENCE of the spots where people fold you dick them with buffs using the same bet sizes as your value

Most likely going about 3-5 bb larger on flop. He is not folding Jx. We split with sets. He has all KQ and at least 98s (which have pretty high equity and will certainly continue). He also has all of the overpair combos that never fold.

Following this theme, both as played and also in the scenario where we raised bigger on the flop, bigger turn.

As played, I would have just jammed. He can't have JTs so he only has JTo which may or may not be in his PF range. And if it is in his PF range, then that means he has all of the better Jx combos than JT which certainly don't fold.

I will say, I think if there is some other line than jamming river, this one would be the 2nd best (referring to the river size). Not in love with flop/turn sizing as played.

Bet big turn and jam river you have plenty of bluffs for him to calling decent Jx. If he calls all Jx against river jam: it is just printing money spot