NL 25 - Top Set vs Raise OTT
Posted by AggroShooter
Posted by
AggroShooter
posted in
Low Stakes
NL 25 - Top Set vs Raise OTT
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
BB: $25.00
UTG: $25.00
MP: $61.14
CO: $40.33 (Hero)
BN: $37.83
SB: $23.06
UTG: $25.00
MP: $61.14
CO: $40.33 (Hero)
BN: $37.83
SB: $23.06
UTG is a 37/16 fish that doesn't fold to 3bets.
BTN is a 64/28 doesn't like to fold vs 3bets (30%) and he cold called a 3bet 2/4 times.
I expect both player to have really wide ranges
BTN is a 64/28 doesn't like to fold vs 3bets (30%) and he cold called a 3bet 2/4 times.
I expect both player to have really wide ranges
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is CO with
Q
Q
, , , , ,
Flop
($7.85)
3
T
Q
, , ,
I should bet bigger I know, probably and stack off any turn (probably?)
Turn
($18.98)
3
T
Q
J
, , , , ,
BTN can have AK and K9 pretty easily. I don't expect him to overplay many hands especially in a MW pot, JJ is likely, JT is less likely. I don't think he could have 33 often, since he's raising 5/19 times OTF, and we are MW so I think he would be somewhat scared and raised the flop. I guess most of you are stacking off but how many times are you good here?
Obv If I sized up more on the flop, the turn would be easier to play and probably would yield higher EV due the inelastic flop calling ranges
Obv If I sized up more on the flop, the turn would be easier to play and probably would yield higher EV due the inelastic flop calling ranges
Loading 16 Comments...
You are obviously posting this hand because he had K9/89/AK.
However I think you are being results orientated in your analysis. Top set on this board vs a fish is a must gii situation and if he has straight than it's a sick cooler and you're still live.
Flop sizing is good with our hand as we block a lot of villain's range that will continue vs a bigger size (AQ, KQ, 2pr, pair +SD).
I like turn size as well setting up for river jam. Betting smaller sizes over 3 streets as opposed to betting flop jamming turn, will reduce Fold Equity and allow us to get more value from villain's marginal hands.
Vs turn raise it's definitely a jam and I would expect to be ahead very often.
From villains perspective after you cbet there is a lot of money in pot. Any 9x and kx is now open ended, there are tons of pair+gs type hands, flush draws, as well as 2pr and sets. Can't see a 64/28 fish folding any of these on turn.
Indeed Villain showed one of those hands but it is not important actually. The real question is: does he raise only straights in this spot?
I think I will do a DB research to find out overall tendencies...
I don't know if it is a cooler or not, there are 48 combos of straights, even if you drop some AK from that, you are still get a lot of combos you don't beat. Given the fact BTN isn't folding much, he has many straight holdings in this spot.
Obv we have a strong hand, talking about absolute hand strength but I don't see any worse hand raise here, probably only JJ. I don't see any two pair raising here, maybe QJ, but we are blocking it.
Vs a value-ish range
and we are getting exactly 29% OTT. I think this would be a call/GII but it is a lot closer than you might think, at least, given my assuptions that could be wrong
How many hands do you have on villain?
If he is playing 64/28 over a big enough sample he is fishy and fishe are definitely capable of having some bluffs and semi bluffs in this spot.
Your range for villain has zero semi-bluffs.
Do you not think villain could have potentially a few Kx combos, flush draws etc. Add just a few combos and watch the equity shift in your favour very fast.
The guy is playing 64 vpip after all.. I think you are giving him too much credit here
Not enough, but VPIP and PFR converge pretty quickly so we can have an idea on how he play
Yes I assign him a range of pure value, because fishes in general, at least for me, doesn't raise here MW without a very strong hand.
You are right, he's playing a lot of hands, but it isn't raising after the flop all of them... Obv if you think about a wide range, correctly you know that we are far ahead of that, the question is are we ahead of his turn raising range? Obv if you put him on more semibluffs you are right call him off
I guess the decision ultimately comes down to how nutted we determine villains turn raising range to be.
IMO your assigned range would be worst case scenario, and QQ is still a call.
If we had JJ,TT here then the spot becomes a lot closer and anything worse than that is a fold.
In fact Hero called :) but he wasn't very happy about it
I agree with both sides. most fish with a high VPIP are usually pretty nutted when they raise this turn mutliway. Im still never folding as we are never dead and the fish will sometimes bluff. I am however only calling with almost the top of my range in this spot. It looks a complicated spot but its not really, just dont get thinking fish is on some sick meta game and call here with like QJ or AQ.
Based on your discussion, what would you do if you have AQ in this hand?
I would c/c AQ on turn as I don't think it's strong enough to bet a second street after being called in 2 spots.
If I bet turn I would bet/fold as it is definitely not strong enough to stack off
Above you said Villain could have many semibluffs, so AQ should be again a bet for value, not clear as QQ but still a value bet imo. Also if you think ranges are wide, OTT there are a ton of draws you can charge while OTR you can't
The reason I would c/c AQ is not because I don't think you can value bet it.
It is because although you have a strong hand +gs, this is a board when I feel villains will jam a lot of hands when we bet. Our hand has a lot of EQ but is not strong enough to get in stacks so by c/c we can pot control and realise all our EQ.
QQ is a bet as we can call a jam. I would bet strong value hands and deaws that we can stack off with as well as weak draws that we don't mind bet folding. I would slow down and c/c with value hands that don't want to stack off and marginal draws with some showdown value that don't want to bet fold
Make it bigger preflop, make it bigger otf, shove the turn.
I agree with make a bigger cbet OTF, however I don't see how much more you would make it pre. We iso the UTG which is a fish with a 10 BB 3bet IP, which is larger than normal (regs 3bet to 8 or to 9 BBs IP).
1bb larger than normal. I don't see a problem putting 11~12bb pre, plus analysing that a player left to act it's a huge fish also. Anyway, this is not a major problem. This flop kinda hits both Villains ranges. They're fishes, post flop they'll call even with gs, second pair, flush draws, open ended str draw. It seems to be a spot they'll call a lot, I don't see any problem to make a psb/overbet to make a comfortable shove ott. If you were behind ott, no problem, 'cos you'll find a lot of worse calling combos as well.
If the scenario was HU post flop vs reg, I would analyse V stats to see if he is aggro vs missed CB in 3b pot, so they would put money with worse hands that wouldn't do it.
I'm just a 10NL grinder, you must be more experienced than me.
That's just my humble opinion.
I don't have enough sample to tell you anything
Any comment/help is appreciated, ty a lot
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