[NL 25] MP vs CO 3BP Overpair 88 on low board
Posted by Berndacle
Posted by
Berndacle
posted in
Low Stakes
[NL 25] MP vs CO 3BP Overpair 88 on low board
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
CO: $25.00
BN: $30.12
SB: $27.61
BB: $24.26
UTG: $46.25
MP: $31.95 (Hero)
BN: $30.12
SB: $27.61
BB: $24.26
UTG: $46.25
MP: $31.95 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is MP with
8
8
, , , ,
Flop
($4.99)
5
6
2
, ,
Turn
($8.31)
5
6
2
3
, ,
River
($19.89)
5
6
2
3
5
, ,
Final Pot
CO wins $18.99
Rake is $0.90
Rake is $0.90
Hi everyone,
Villain is regular (26/19 on 770 Hands/ 6,7% 3bet/ no Postflop reads, villain looks solid).
I basically have no clue how to play this hand. My range here consists basically of overpairs and villain could be capable of reading my hand quite well. If he can do it he should probably bluff a lot (?). But in general I think people are not 3barrel bluffing enough there and villain has something like 50% JJ, 70%QQ and KK+ in his range. Villain could also bluff with A3s and A4s on the flop and hit a street on the turn which beats us.
Loading 7 Comments...
I'm folding OTT. I'm playing the same level of yours and reg don't have any bluff here. Also he isn't 3betting an high amount so I think JJ+ is in his value 3barrell range. He could have AQ+, but it is high unlikely that he would take this line. Obv the last statement is based on reg tendencies on the current stake
Sometime I check raise flop in that situation, if I know well the oppo. If he call or raise, you can be quiet sure he's not on AQ-AK range so JJ+ is the most probable. Hope to read more opinions about this hand.
I think theoretically this is a totally break even call on the river but as everyone has said it's probably -EV against regs at these stakes. I agree with adamska who said to check-raise the flop, you'll deny overcards their equity and often force villain to turn their range a little more face up.
It could be really expensive and you won't folding anything of value here, unless you are willing to 2nd barrell I guess 100% of the times
I personally would have played preflop and the flop the same, but folded the turn. The problem with calling the turn is that you will often need to call a river bet to get to showdown. You might be making the right call and still be ahead on the river, but a percentage of those times you will be bluffed off of the winning hand on the river. I think that he often puts you on the correct range (medium overpairs) and isn’t scared of the straight (44, 54s, A4s would fold preflop).
Since I read Adamska’s and LilTonyC’s opinions I realize that calling the flop, although possibly +EV because Villain would often stop betting his overcards on further streets, isn’t as good as raising. When calling and raising are close, I believe it’s better to take the more aggressive line, because having an aggressive image pays off.
You can fold on any streets. you cannto call down vs unknown / solisih regish player
Honestly I think you can make an exploitative fold vs most players in the player pool in this spot. I think MP vs CO is going to be a much tighter range than CO vs BTN and the fact that you are oop means it will be much harder to even realize the full equity of your hand. If you notice that the player is 3betting a lot vs you and you think he can be wide in this spot then you can start working in more calls and more 4bets with various hands.
If you do call pre I think we have to call the flop given the small sizing. You can plan to call another small barrel on any 4,7,8,9 and ck-fold to his big bet on this turn. I don't like check raising because unless you make it really big there is a chance he can float with a lot of hands that have decent equity vs you and will also have a chance to bluff unimproved.
Be the first to add a comment