NL 25 - Comfortable fold OTR?

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NL 25 - Comfortable fold OTR?

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BN: $19.20
SB: $23.15
BB: $25.22 (Hero)
UTG: $20.18
MP: $33.53
CO: $9.54
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is BB with T 9
UTG raises to $0.75, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.50
Flop ($1.60) 6 5 K
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.76, Hero calls $0.76
Turn ($3.12) 6 5 K T
Hero checks, UTG bets $1.48, Hero calls $1.48
River ($6.08) 6 5 K T K
Hero checks, UTG bets $5.75

Villain is a 49/15 over 95 hands
cbet flop-turn-river: (7/10) - (3/3) - (2-2)
Fold vs cbet (3/7)
bet IP vs missed cbet (1/3)
bet IP vs missed cbet turn (1/2)
bet OOP vs missed cbet turn (1/2)
bet OOP vs missed cbet river (1/2)

To me seems creative postflop and like to stabs a lot.
I can cbet flop but decide not to.
OTR we have a std bluffcatcher which could be good since the K pairs so the odds of him having one decreases. At the same time we block flush draws so I guess combowise is a std fold, but what about vs this opponent?

2 Comments

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belrio42 5 years, 1 month ago

Your terminology is confusing. You called a preflop raise; so you can't c-bet flop, only Villain can c-bet. If you mean that you could lead flop, you should definitely not be leading this flop because it hits UTG's range quite well; X/C or X/R are both fine.

Turn is fine.

OTR, I think folding is fine. Against this big a size, you don't have to call much at all. You will have a fair bit of Kx in your range. You can call your Tx with better kickers. The FD is somewhat but not super relevant since Villain "should" not be triple barreling his FDs.

Eurocrat 5 years, 1 month ago

I think a key factor here is betting size. It seems like villain is betting a lot postflop, but the question is, does he have different bet sizes? For most fish, I would assume that a pot size river bet is exclusively value so this spot is a clear fold for me with any Tx combo.

I do think you can consider a X/R on the flop. I assume his cbetting range to be very high, including a couple of random Ax combos that you could fold out. If he calls though, I would shut down on most turns. On the T turn, obviously you get some showdown value so this is not a card that I would continue betting.

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