NL 25 3 Barrel in 3 bet Pot
Posted by foldnowpls
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foldnowpls
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Low Stakes
NL 25 3 Barrel in 3 bet Pot
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
BN: $121.36
SB: $33.37 (Hero)
BB: $48.79
UTG: $60.44
MP: $40.33
CO: $31.24
SB: $33.37 (Hero)
BB: $48.79
UTG: $60.44
MP: $40.33
CO: $31.24
Early days but villain was opening wide on BTN and folding to three bets a decent amount
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is SB with
7
9
, , , ,
Pre is close but justifiable based on above read I think
Flop
($5.25)
Q
K
5
,
Good flop for our range and we have decent equity so standard barrel
Turn
($10.25)
Q
K
5
6
,
Again good turn which gives us more outs so think betting again is correct
River
($22.25)
Q
K
5
6
4
,
On river we have the bottom of our range and can have all the nut hands on this run out so bluff seems fine from a GTO standpoint. However exploitably I think a lot of villains at this limit call with quite a narrow range on the turn so maybe we dont get enough folds on the river. Thoughts or am I overthinking this one?
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Does the bluff seem fine from a GTO stand point?
You block a good chunk of his river folding range 6d7d, 9d7d, 9d8d, Td9d, Jd9d Ad9d, Ad7d
It will be easy to overbluff this river when we elect to 3bet with many suited xx hands pre flop and will barrel all of them + some straight draws. However, having way more nut combos on this flop as most of the time QQ and KK adn even AK is 4bet, means that villain should have KQ as nuttiest combo.
So I assume you would prefer using a hand like JT without diamonds as a 3 barrel instead in this spot
We don't block anything, but we're still folding AQ, KJ, KTs, JTs, he can only call with KQ, 55, 65s maybe.
So before you bet river, his range is AQ(12), KJ(12), KTs(3), QJs(3), JTs(4), 55(3), 65s(3), KQ(9), + FD(6) [let's add some more FD combos] so he has aproximately 49combos and hi folds optimistically everything except 55(3), 65s(3), KQ(9) -> 15combos, so your FE is (54-15)/54 = (40)/54 = 74% and you need 50% of FE to make it EV+. He will have to call with some of his KJ to make it EV=0 for you.
So It's a good bluff IF your villain isn't good enough to realize that you are too bluff heavy, because you only have QQ-KK,KQ(15) value combos and you're betting pot, so you only need something like 8 bluff combos and you have (zachgalifianakisdoing_math.jpeg) many bluff combos and you should either resign some of them OTR, or OTT, to balance. I think you could XF your A high FD or FD + small pair to have a good bluff range.
But in this spot I don't think you can have a bluff that blocks his nut hand. And even though you block some SC of dd with 97dd you don't have the Ad so you don't block those one that are a few more (AJdd,ATdd,A8dd,A6dd,A4dd, A3dd,A2dd)[7].
So what should be your bluffing range there?
FD{AXdd(9), JTdd, T9dd, 87dd, 76dd, J9dd, T8dd, 97dd, 86dd} + JTs(3) - removing AKdd and KXdd. So Of that range wich one blocks his calling range {KQ,55} (A5dd), removing A5dd which hands blocks his folding range (everyone), wiche hands blocks the most AXdd. So I think bluffing 97dd, T8dd, J9dd, 87dd, T9dd, JTs (9) it's a good bluffing range.
Exploitatively and GTO it's a good bluff IMO, enphasis in MY and OPINION.
Villain can fold Adxd, Jxd, He's probably gonna fold stuff like K7s and AQ, QJ as well so imo it's fine. I'd be a bit worried about running into top of villain's range more often than usual given his large preflop open.
Was 3.6x standard for him otb? Some people do have AA-QQ and AK in their range for calling 3bets in this spot so while I would discount them to some extent I wouldn't go as far as saying he can't ever show up with those combos.
Maybe he saw you 3betting light before, coupled with high fv4b and high post-flop aggression. In which case it is certainly within the realm of possibilities that he chose to make some sort of adjustment with few of the big hands in his range and he's setting up the good ol' tarp more often than you expect.
But generally speaking I think the triple barrel seems fine. Over-bluffing this spot could be a problem if you go too crazy with your SB 3bet range but I still think it beats checking the river.
I have a totally different view on this hand & am interested in what others think:
My first though on this flop was to consider XR here. It looks super strong and allows us to really put pressure on a number of runouts. We can rep a very wide and uncapped range and put our villain to the test with all of his Kx and Qx that can t play 3 streets.
If we get xed behind, we can barrel 2/3 to full-pot OTT and follow it up with a pot sized river shove. We then achieve our goal of being polarized in the river while putting maximum pressure on his range of missed draws and 1 pairs he get to the river with.
Thoughts?
you wouldn't x/r your top range otf, also I don't think he would bet queens or "weak" kings
X/raising implies that villain will bet/fold or bet/call / fold turn a lot. So in other words he is really stabby with air which still has an EQ advantage. Villains betting strategy will be rather polarized here, so his value bets shouldnt fold too much against x/raises.
dont actually love it vs tottaly unknown... i think i prefer to peak 7c9c at least cause with 7d9d i block the main diamond draw on the texture....
Something like J9cc ,any JT, ATo ,would be better for this line....
If we have read and the villain goes to showdown <25 it's ok to open up ur bluff ranges.
Also be in mind that when a villain opens .85$ and the stacks go deeper he will be very honest with his floats on a 3 bet pot so i expect more nitty range on river like KQ and KA
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