NL 100 Gutshot with Flush draw on turn in 3bet pot OOP
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foldnowpls
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Low Stakes
NL 100 Gutshot with Flush draw on turn in 3bet pot OOP
Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players)
BN: $199.00
SB: $170.49 (Hero)
BB: $126.68
UTG: $106.23
MP: $121.57
CO: $56.94
SB: $170.49 (Hero)
BB: $126.68
UTG: $106.23
MP: $121.57
CO: $56.94
Villain is aggressive multi tabling reg running 26/21 with a 14.6% 3bet from BB
Preflop
($1.50)
Hero is SB with
A
3
, , ,
Standard defend especially against small 3bet
Flop
($14.00)
J
5
4
, ,
x/c seems close with gut shot and bdfd on board I think he cbets with high frequency. Anyone prefer x/r on the flop?
Turn
($28.00)
J
5
4
K
, , ,
We pick up flush draw as well though this card is better for his range than ours. The check shove is profitable if he folds around 30% of the time based on our rough equity versus his range and the stack sizes. Not sure how we can really get close to making a decision in game about whether this frequency is close to correct as we have to make so many assumptions about his range and how he plays the different parts of it. Given that our draw is nutted and the 2 is also a clean out is calling reasonable expecting river to get barreled both as a bluff and with worse for value when we hit.
River
($297.17)
J
5
4
K
9
Final Pot
SB
lost and shows high card Ace.
BB wins and shows two pair, Kings and Jacks.
BB wins $250.56
Rake is $2.80
BB wins and shows two pair, Kings and Jacks.
BB wins $250.56
Rake is $2.80
Loading 9 Comments...
4bet or fold pre. It looks neat the way you played it but what does he fold OTT besides worse draws?
+1
Yeah thats what I thought after, what do you think of check calling turn?
Depends on his river betting frequencies. Or his stickyness. Assume we hit, if we donk shove now, we pretty much always backdoored the flush and we are really unlikely to be bluffing as we are inclined to x/call our weak pair, a high hands OTF and call again if pick up a draw.
Now I think we wanna check if we do hit, the question is, is villain goinf for many thin value bets OTR or is bluffing a ton? If so, we can call, expecting to make him shove on a flush card or 2.
How is your image? Your checkraising stats?
Fwiw,
PF: if u know that i can 3bet KJo then 4bet otherwise i like ur play
Flop: ok
Turn : Ks It's a bad card for ur range because he must think that u don't have AK,JJ+, so not sure u have enough FE here for raisin.
4 bet/fold, checkcall,checkraise seems a better a line.
It's okay because you have decent equity and you have fold equity, but the K is bad for your range and amazing for him, so I don't think you should raise this turn much.
You can shove a couple of bottom sets, 54s and combo draws on the turn, but mostly I would be caling or folding.
with the overcard, gutshot and FD I would prefer calling this abd shoving a non showdown value draw.
A high with 3 kicker is no SDV, its garbage. SDV defines a hand that is good when the river bricks, both players check or we x/call and are good a huge portion of the time. How often will that happen?
It doesnt make sense that shoving weaker draws is better, when our nutflush/combodraw has much more EQ when called and doesnt need that much foldeq for a shove to be better than break-even.
Pre is fine vs his sizing. Flop with your nutted draw, bd flushdraw and overcard is a easy call. I wouldnt raise any hand otf unless you have an exploitive read. Turn card is better for his range so x/raising shouldnt be a high frequent option. With the equity and the implied odds its going to be a call. Riverspots are easy with this hand.
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