NL 10 zoom - Can we ever fold a set?
Posted by NoXcuzes
Posted by
NoXcuzes
posted in
Low Stakes
NL 10 zoom - Can we ever fold a set?
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
BN: $9.92 (Hero)
SB: $13.70
BB: $24.71
UTG: $10.35
MP: $22.69
CO: $13.83
SB: $13.70
BB: $24.71
UTG: $10.35
MP: $22.69
CO: $13.83
Only 17 hands playing 38/31 with 58% AFq
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is BN with
8
8
, , ,
Flop
($0.65)
8
A
Q
, ,
Turn
($3.25)
8
A
Q
7
, , ,
Unless another club comes, i don't think the river will make the board worse for me. By minraising he indicates a super strong hand like slowplayed AA,QQ or a flush.
River
($10.85)
8
A
Q
7
2
,
This bet size is exactly my stack. I don't think he can overplay two pairs in that way and decide to fold.
Final Pot
CO wins $10.36
Rake is $0.49
Rake is $0.49
Am i being super weak or reasonable with my assumptions? Thanks in advance for any responses guys.
Loading 10 Comments...
Over a larger sample it would be close v this particular guy.
In general v a more reasonable player/reg type I would fold though yes, as they won't have enough bluffs and won't go thinnish for value as you say, and the change from bet/call to check/minraise when the flush completes does kind of scream flush.
The issue with your sample is if he had a couple of strong hands over this 17 hands then even a nit would run these kind of stats and obv be aggro post as well.
In my opinion, players never have bluffs in this spot in 10NL, so what it comes down to is does he plays AQ like this as well as flushes and QQ/AA? you need ~25% to make this a profitable call, so if he does play AQ (9 combos) like this, we should call, otherwise I would just fold. OTT he should have arund 11 flush combos (if he plays all of them like this OTF) + 6 combos of AA/QQ (possibly). i would expect a lot of AQ to 3bet get it in OTF or just call OTT, so unless you have a specific read I recomend folding the river.
I put villain's value range on KcJc-Kc5c, QcJc-Qc9c, JcTc-Jc9c, Tc9c. On this
board/runout I don't think that many people would take this line with AA or QQ or AQ - or at least they shouldn't. So his range is somewhat nutted. Then again, it's 10NL and players can do some absurd shit at the microlimits, and I don't think we should fold such a strong hand.
My range for calling this river would be the KcJc-KcTc, QcJc-QcTc, JcTc and 88 as the worst hand in my range - just in case he does overplay his AQ combos. I myself would fold AQ somewhat exploitatively on this river. Folding a set otr is probably a bit too nitty.
Overall I think that raising the flop is probably fine but I would check back this turn at a high frequency.
Definitely check the turn. Getting check/raised is a pretty bad scenario for this particular holding. Villain likely has the flush when he minraises, but you still can't fold, so fine as played there. I probably flip a coin for the river. A random fish could easily overplay A7/87, but I don't know how often you're going to see that.
I would agree with the above comment to check the turn, its hard to get three streets of value in this situation and although your hand does need protection it really sucks to get raised. As played turn you have to call given the implied odds and I would definitely fold river especially at these stakes where you will rarely see a bluff here.,
Iain what do you think the difference between checking turn and betting turn 20-40%?
anyone against raising flop on this board which favours pfr more?
It depends on how he constructs his cbet range. People at micros over cbet basically in all spots, but a stupid amout OOP
Against what I assume regulars are doing in this situations with their BU flats (I assume between 7-10%), Villian is likely just going to want to check range on this specific board texture.
Against someone that is continuation betting hands like AK-AT, even random A5stuff sometimes, and all of their flushdraws, IP probably wants to play a strategy of raise or fold, don't want to have a ton of calls in this spot against someone that is playing that sort of a continuation bet strategy. It all depends on how they construct their cbet ranges.

for pure simplification lets say he c-betting this:
This is our response:

Okay when he check raises flopwe need to think about his check raising range. Hands he is raising for value (aq; and aj) and mainly semi bluffs and combo draws. For example kj, j10 and flush draws etc. I like the call on the flop. However you should just check the turn planning to flat river if he bets. Hoping he has value hands like AQ occasionally some bluffs like missed broadway draws and sometimes he will have flushes which beat us. If he checks river we can bet 1/3 to half pot for value folding to a river check raise.
Sorry i just read it again and realsied vlian called a 3 bet on flop not checkraised. Anyway the same principle applies. Check back turn!
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