Need math help on jam/call

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Posted by posted in High Stakes

Need math help on jam/call

BN: $3070.10 (Hero)
SB: $1015
BB: $2634.40
UTG: $1015
HJ: $1000
CO: $1030
Preflop ($15.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 9 8
UTG folds, HJ raises to $30, CO folds, Hero calls $30, SB folds, BB folds
Usually don't flat here, but I felt like it.
Flop ($75.00) 4 T 3 (2 Players)
HJ bets $45, Hero calls $45
Turn ($165.00) 4 T 3 K (2 Players)
HJ bets $110, Hero calls $110
River ($385.00) 4 T 3 K 2 (2 Players)
HJ bets $250

Seems like an obvious shove, but I saw in a Daniel Dvoress video that it's much closer than you think.
How do we work out whether on not to call/jam here?

His HJ open is 20% btw.


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