need help with calculate 4b/5bshove EV
Posted by peter89
Posted by
peter89
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need help with calculate 4b/5bshove EV
Hi guys, let me know if i'm wrong .
4b EV :
50nl (blinds 0.25 / 0.50). we open(MP) 3bb($1.5) CO 3bet 9bb($4.5) , we 4bet 20bb($10) (pot 15,25)
Let's say his 3bet range is 9,06% (111combos) and 30combos(only value shove), to know what is 30 combos in % from his range we need
30 / 111 = 27%
73% of the time we get 4.5$ (his 3bet) + 0.75$ (blinds) + 1.5$ (our initial raise) = 6.75$
27% of the time we lose 10$(4bet)-1.5$(initial raise)= 8.5$
4BET EV = (Fold% * we get X$)-(Shove% * we lose X$) = 0.736,75 - 0.278.5 = 2,63$EV
few questions : did i miss something ? how to make formula in google excel where i can just put numbers? so next time i don't need spend a lot of time to calculate it or maybe you can recommend software for it ? CREV?
and can anyone share 5bet shove formula when we OOP? like BTN raise , we 3bet on SB , he 4bet and we shove .
Thank you.
Loading 7 Comments...
First, you should be aware that what you were trying to calculate here is the EV of 4b/folding a particular combo. The EV of your whole 4-bet strategy should include the scenarios when villain shoves and you call.
Also, you are way oversimplifying things here. Villain is not playing a 5-bet or fold (only) strategy versus your 4-bets, he is gonna be calling a lot of hands too. So the calculation is far more complex, because you should estimate what is your EV when playing postflop OOP with your 4-bet range vs his 3-bet/calling range. This part is the most diffcult.
Try to use CREV to do this calcs. But the 5b shove 'formula' is pretty much straight foward if you can calculate the EV of a 4-bet strategy
Whats the best way to factor or opp calling V our 4b into our calc to find our EV?
I will search formula with calls tomorrow ,because already spend 1hr about this one but obv it should take like 10mins and no more ( i had exp with that before ) but after year break im very slow as my brain. but if anyone want share some examples it will be great ..
math looks fine but your estimate of your opponent's strategy seems insane. He's 3betting 9% but only stacking off 30 combos...that's not even all of QQ+/AK...
edit: also 3betting 9% to begin with is almost certainly too wide, and the combination of 3betting too wide and 5betting super super tight seems like an odd set of assumptions.
I made a calculator: here
Enter the relevant info, EV is calculated for you. Everything is in big blinds, if the opener and/or 3bettor are in the blinds then change the dead money accordingly
edit: I don't actually know how google sheets works, whether you can edit it or not...if not you can probably download it or just copy/paste it into excel
Steve Paul , wow thank you ! do you think its important to have 4bet call in formula ?
JJ+,ak,aks 40combos yeah maybe i miss it and about 9% 3bet i think a lot of zoom players have at least 9 and higher so thats why i put 9% (checked equilab 9.20% 122combos). and most of them go 5bet shove only with 40-46combos(TT+,AKo,s) and also i notice a lot of players call all broadway cards vs 4bet OOP(sb or bb) , talking about 50nl and kinda same on 100nl zoom a lot of 4bet calls if we check 100nl vs 50nl .
about google docs , i just copy it and working fine..
if your opponents call 4bets often then it's important, if they rarely call them then less so.
If you open MP and your 4 opponents behind all 3bet 9% and call some reasonable % then your raise/folds are losing money. Since CO is in one of the worse spots for vpip'ing, 9% is almost certainly too wide. A reasonable adjustment if that's what's happening is to open a bit tighter and 4bet a little more liberally.
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