* Barrel on cards where you can credibly rep something. I like the turn barrel, since you should have more overcards in your overall UTG opening range. 

But given he has such tight calling stats for Flop/Turn, im basically C/F river.

Dont mind this 3barrel, he wont have many 7x at all.
Think the range you give him is quite right.
Once in a while youll run into 55,77,QQ ofc but the rest he got to fold imo.
You look verry strong as you open UTG.

I think after you bet so big on the turn, people tend not to fold rivers. You bet 87% of the bot on the turn, it was a huge bet. He is probably likely to fold the turn with his medium pairs, and if he doesn`t, he is not likely to fold to a 62% of the pot river bet after calling a 87% of the pot turn bet (even though the K is pretty scary).

This is probably a situation where you want to be betting a bit smaller on the turn. Both for value and as a bluff. Like you said, the biggest portion of his range is 88-JJ. You can bet 1.35$ or 1.45$ on the turn, and if he does continue with his pocket pairs, he`ll have a very hard time calling the river. And you`ll have a balanced enough range with your Qx and over pairs, that you don`t need to worry about him continuing on the turn.

You basically make his turn continuing range too strong by using that sizing, and that`s not something that you want in a good triple barrel spot.

All that being said, I would not have cbet the flop with this hand. He is super tight, his range for calling on MP vs UTG is super strong, so you shouldn`t be cbetting 100% on this board vs that range. You want to keep your frequencies a bit lower, and the best way to do that is to cbet when you have some good barreling opportunities with backdoor draws like if you had AhJh, or AdJx, and then give up when you don`t (like with the hand you have) by check-folding flop.

Felipe, i actually think C-betting AJo OTF isnt a bad idea, given our Overall UTG Opening range, is ahead of VIllains IP FLatting range OTF. 

*) Reasons for C-betting

1) Its hard to construct a balanced OOP Checking range on Paired Boards, without Capping your overall ranges on future streets. 

2) For balancing purposes, i would add AJo into my overall Flop C-betting range. Furthermore, I just think AJo is too strong to Check OTF, given we are still ahead of Villains Overall Preflop calling range on this type of board texture. 

He does call down alot on flops and turns so a hand with a little bit more equity is better to barrel him with here.

I`d prolly just X/F the flop vs this particular villain.

Felipe the sample size is only 84 hands. I dont know if my reasonings correct here, since im a little bit confused at this spot, and could be totally wrong here. 

I set a few Assumptions, where if VIllain is 3-betting a value range of QQ+/AK, which i could be wrong, then our AJo equity is ahead of VIllains Overall range composition OTF

168,300  games     0.002 secs    84,150,000  games/secBoard: 7h 7d 5dDead:   equity win tie      pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 46.034%    41.39% 04.64%         69667     7809.00   { JJ-22, AQs-A5s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+ }

Hand 1: 53.966%    49.33% 04.64%         83015     7809.00   { AhJc }

*) I just dont feel comfortable Capping my range on Earlier streets, where i would get exploited later on. Whereas, i would be more inclined to barrel with a hand like AJo, while also banking on some % of FE.

Thanks for the in depth explanation. I think maybe these are some of the spots, where I'm leaking money, and blaming it on Balance. :P 

I really like the discussion here.

I think Felipe pretty much nailed it with his explanation. Makes sense. Honestly I don't even know if he calls with those suited broadways preflop, but I'm lacking hand reading and range construction skill so...by the way, what do you think is a good exercise to learn those skills? Like the next time I post a hand here should I give villain a range so I can discuss it with you?

So, important things to take note from here:

Barrel with more equity
Preferably IP
Vs wider ranges? (this is meh, because vs wider ranges I will often be with a wider range too in those situations)

Capped range, what is i?

And one of my biggest leaks I think, is to understand when to 3barrel...

At micro stakes, it's probably better to 2barrel than to 3barrel...is this often true?

sidenote: capping your range means that you take a line that you rarely (maybe never) would take with a strong valuerange in a specific spot. So ppl assume you would always cbet you strong OP´s (JJ+ or maybe any OP) any 7X on this board cauze there is some draws out there. Maybe you will be checking boats. So if we check here an observant opp will assume you dont have those hands in your range anymore; so you´re range is capped to "openingrange minus strong part of your valuerange" and can take that for his advantage.

Given that concept we can btw. create a decent XC range on those kind of boards (even though i personally would prefer wider ranges for that) by XC strong overpairs, 7x and boats.

With a range designed like that we get the opportunity to get to SD with hands that have SDV but cant stand a lot of heat (or just floats). AJo often has this kind of SDV vs a wide range (but i doubt it in this spot as well why i guess XF is decent) and we could take a XC once line and an observant opp might slowdown his pure bluffs on later streets (he´s capping his own range then! Attention:Levelwars start here!) cause we still have strong hands in our range.

The concept of capping ranges is also very important if we decide to take bluff lines, cause (for example) most ppl wont believe you that you rivered a flush or a boat after checking 2h8h9x, calling a lead on Jx and start raising 9h. You would rarely check back your FD as PFA and about never XB your TP/2p/sets. So your line is very inconsistent with the range you play and we have an easy call with at least any straight or better....I guess 9x could still be a call cauz you should also rarely check back your OESD´s as well or flat the turn with a straight that you now raise...

Therefore we dont have too many observant opp at lower stakes a lot of this stuff doesnt matter too much in a lot of situations and we shouldnt leave ABC too much for balancing purposes (checking strong hands in OP´s spot and missing a lot of straight value with our monsters)

Obv. this concept doesnt apply to fishes as well cauz as we all know: they can have everything everytime

It's good to understand balanced or capped ranges but, imho, at 10nl there are very few opponents who will understand or consider those concepts.

On paired boards its hard for even tight ranges to have hit so I cbet this board versus 1 opponent 100%, probably bet ~$0.42( half pot ) and expect to find a fold more often than not.

Turn Q is a good card to barrel but again I think half pot will show a similar success rate to a larger bet and save us $ when villain calls.

Third barrel is unlikely to succeed so I think I wave the white flag at this point.

A 17/14 guy's range who rarely 3bets UTG opens is extremely tight here.  Preflop, he's playing something like AQs+, AKo+, 88+, maybe AQo and KQs.  His worst possible hand then becomes 88-JJ, but given his preflop tendencies he has QQ-AA and AQ nearly as frequently. 

So, this bluff looks like a negative freeroll for you.  If he flats turn with every 88-JJ combo, as well as every AQ, QQ-AA combo, and folds every 88-JJ combo on the river, then he'll probably fold around 45% to the river barrel making it narrowly profitable.  On the other hand, if he folds some 88-JJ combos on the turn (like 8s8c), or he floats turn with AK (unlikely I think), then he might end up folding as little as 20% on the river.  Best case scenario your bluff is narrowly +ev, worst case it's very -ev, so on balance check/fold looks good.

I'd also go ahead and check/fold this flop.  You lose to every hand in his range, and much of his range has you dominated.  "Representing" a strong UTG range isn't a good strategy when our opponent is playing exploitably snug pre.