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Multistreet analysis of a possible A high calldown. 100nl

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Multistreet analysis of a possible A high calldown. 100nl

SB: $42.93
BB: $210.03
UTG: $51.50
HJ: $60.35
CO: $95
BN: $101.50
I am BTN and I have AdTc. This HH is more going to be a street by street range analysis so my exact hole cards don t matter as much.

Reads on Villain:
He s aggressive with 3 betting preflop. 25-30% given positions. He bets flop 85% in 3 bet pots, bets turn in 3 bet pots 68% and bets river overall 43%. So his strat seems to be build a pot and run you over later. Perfect villain for lite calls and making sure we get to the river with a range that can call enough of the time later.
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $2, SB folds, BB raises to $6, BN calls $4
AxQx-Ax2x,AxQy-Ax9y,KxQx-Kx7x,KxQy-KxTy,QxJx-Qx8x,QxJy,JxTx,Jx9x,Tx9x,9x8x,88-22,8x7x,7x6x,6x5x,5x4x
If you do not agree with some of these calls or you d like to see other hands in there please say so. Its in PPT format so easy to visualize using the oracle.

This is what I estimate my calling range to be preflop. Along with 4 bets I m defending ~25% of the time. I would be tightening up my opening range to ~ 50% ( Or I should be :D) so I m more or less covered here.
Flop ($13.50) 4 9 9 (2 Players)
BB bets $8, BN calls $8
Flop is ok for my hand seeing as vs 25% of hands AT high is doing pretty good. It is however a flop that definitely favors him some though given AK and 99-AA being in his range.

If he s betting his whole range here AxQx-Ax2x,AxQy-Ax9y,KxQx-Kx7x,KxQy-KxTy,Qx9x,Jx9x,Tx9x,9x8x,88-22,5x4x,QhJh,QdJd,QcJc These hands have enough fold equity to continue. Basically any pair, A high, Kigh and Qx with backdoors. I m not totally comfortable floating this wide and it s 83% of my preflop range. I ve trimmed it a bit down to

AxQx-Ax4x,AxQy-Ax9y,KxQx,Kx9x,KxQy,Qx9x,Jx9x,Tx9x,9x8x,88-44 which is roughly 55% of my preflop range. Not quite enough to be totally "unexploitable" but this is a board that favors him.
Turn ($29.50) 5 (2 Players)
BB bets $17, BN calls $17
I ve had a board come pretty similar to this come before vs him. He barreled it that time too and given his overall strat I think his range is going to be pretty wide again.

AxQx,AxJx,Ax9x,Ax5x,AxQy,AxJy,Ax9y,Kx9x,Qx9x,Jx9x,Tx9x,9x8x,88-44,Ah8h-Ah6h,Ah4h

This is about 63% of my Flop range. AJ+, pairs, Ah*h. Seems I can afford to drop AT now although 63% is the bare minimum.

River ($63.50) 7 (2 Players)
BB bets $47
AxQx,Ax9x,Ax5x,Ax4x,AxQy,Ax9y,Kx9x,Qx9x,Jx9x,Tx9x,9x8x,88-44,Ah7h. Finally we get to the river. This is about 75% of our turn range. If we fold AQ we don t have quite enough to perhaps better is to call the best AQ hands to call. I m guessing that this is AQ!*h giving max chance to have a busted heart draw. This turns into 55 hands and our turn range was 83 hands so this is about right.

Uhhh I going to have to rest after this one lol. I appreciate the effort of anyone who has time and energy to read through this.

6 Comments

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BigFiszh 12 years, 1 month ago
Looks nice, only two things to add / consider (not that I expect to tell anything new, just for completion):

a) You don´t have to defend the maximum of your defense-treshold as long as you have a raising-range at any point. For example, if you raise 9x (or any other combos) on the turn your river-range gets automatically smaller so you have to defend less. On the other hand your river-range gets weaker so I´m not sure if the bottom of your calling-range changes that much, probably not.

b) When you say "along with 4-bets I´m defending 25% ...", you meant you´re defending 25% overall. Guess it´s important to get that clear.
WM2K 12 years, 1 month ago
Ya I don t know about a raising range on any street tbh. Just seems bad for our range as we just have soooo many bluff catchers and so he has lots of reason to be barreling off. I guess we could sac a few combos of 9x and CIB OTF as we can have a decent amount of bluffs as we leverage a lot of stack.

Having only a calling range though OTF and OTT can t be bad though. All our nut hands are basically invulnerable and its not like theres many action killers either. If he s c/giving up with any hand that should pay off raises we can certainly own him with floats. Perhaps the oracles suggestion of Qx w/ Bdfd is good as now we have combos that benefit greatly from him c/giving up as well as giving us superior board coverage on a wider variety of turns.
james 12 years, 1 month ago
I think we need to be careful going into GTO mode versus someone who is fairly unbalanced on the river. This opponent bets tons of flops and turns but by the time he gets to the river his 43% river cbet is only betting a range of overpairs/ trips/boats with very few bluffs.
WM2K 12 years, 1 month ago
Ya thats fair. This was mostly a exercise to see what kind of range of mine is getting to the river and see how thin I should be at least prepared to call. I think I would have still looked him up with at least A7 here though.

If he s giving up a lot OTR though I think I don t mind my ATo call OTT. Maybe I should consider turning it into a bluff if villain checks to me?
Jama_Dharma 12 years, 1 month ago
can you tell something more about unbalanced cbetting, maybe in your next videos. I have some problems to decipher this statistic. For exemple, what percentage gives us if information that vallian's range is strong (on Flop, Turn, River) or maybe very loose or polirized and something like that. It would be very helpful to me. Thanks.

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