mp TK vs BB

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

mp TK vs BB

Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (6 Players) BN: $7.82
SB: $2.06
BB: $12.36
UTG: $4.31
MP: $9.65 (Hero)
CO: $4.21
Preflop ($0.07) Hero is MP with K T
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.12, 3 folds, BB raises to $0.45, Hero calls $0.33
the only reason i called pre was that we were deep -
of course he has a strong range
Flop ($0.92) 8 K 7
BB bets $0.48, Hero calls $0.48
had to call my tp -
Turn ($1.88) 8 K 7 J
BB bets $1.16, Hero calls $1.16
His turn bet was scary : AK JJ AA KK , or 1 combo of AQhh?
and got more out to improve if that makes any different.
River ($4.20) 8 K 7 J T
BB bets $2.22, Hero calls $2.22

he took some time to think and boom
i could see only 1 combo of AQhh betting turn -

timed out and called..

reviewing i believe was a loose call-
what do you think?
what is the right play here?

8 Comments

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TFX 8 years ago

The J and the T smash your 3bet calling Range. I think it's ambitious to think he value bets AK and AA on this river.

I think it's hard for him to have bluffs on this river. If he's good he could be turning some ThX into a bluff. All other draws got there. He's not betting Kx or Jx on the this river for value. I think the only bluffs he gets here with are AhXh if they are in his 3bet bluffing range preflop but he's gunna just flat a lot of those hands also from the BB.

It's a good price but I think it's still a fold unless you had a read that he bets way too thin for value on these type of boards. Exploitatively his 1/2 pot bet on the river is almost always going to be value he should be betting bigger if it's a bluff and all you really beat is a bluff.

TFX 8 years ago

I mean, he might bet AA which you beat even though that's very thin for value and I think most people will check that hand here. He's definitely not betting AK.

His value range is certainly very small, KK, AQs for sure. Does he have hands like A9s, Q9s? a lot of players will have a polarised range vs MP OOP. Can he get here with KJ? Any info about his 3betting stats/range will be very useful here. I don't think it's wrong to call here given the price you don't have to be good here very often for it to be profitable.

But I lean towards a fold simply because he has pretty much no bluffs, his sizing indicates a value bet, and I don't think AA is in his value range on this river.

What did he show up with?

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