Missed spot to triple barrell?
Posted by luckykiwi
Posted by
luckykiwi
posted in
Low Stakes
Missed spot to triple barrell?
SB: 157.67
BB: 100
CO: 100 (Hero)
BN: 191.48
BB: 100
CO: 100 (Hero)
BN: 191.48
Preflop
(1.50)
(4 Players)
Hero was dealt
Q
J
Hero raises to 2.50, BN calls 2.50, SB folds, BB calls 1.50
Hero raises to 2.50, BN calls 2.50, SB folds, BB calls 1.50
BTN is a regular 3betting 6% vs CO IP, BTN CC 9%, Fold CB IP 53% 28% 51%, WTSD 29%
BB is a fish
BB is a fish
Flop
(8)
2
T
2
(3 Players)
BB checks,
Hero bets 5.50,
BN calls 5.50,
BB folds
Turn
(19)
2
T
2
8
(2 Players)
Hero bets 14,
BN calls 14
std turn bet or against an opponent that folds so much to cbet ip you'd XC this?
River
(47)
2
T
2
8
3
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BN checks
I'm nearly the bottom of my range and i have no blocker to his turned FD that might have float the flop, do you think i have to bluff this theoretically to build a bluffing range? exploitatively would you just give up here against this opponent?
Loading 10 Comments...
Wtsd 29% will probably find a call against you, even with ace high, if its a good sample. Gto wise u can bet here, would like to hear from gto expert,though :)
on that runout we have 56 value combos ( AT+)
when we bluff river what hands we wanna make indifferent?? TJs,t9s,QTs few combos of 99 guess only those??
what do u think of overbetting river is this an appropriate spot to do that? cause range v range looks like we are crushing him!! i am not sure just asking... like he cant have much more that A2s, AT, 88 here!... most of his stuff clear bluffcatchers vs our range... like is it possible to jam or bet 200% pot would that be correct???
TURN: bluffing for bluffing QJo +EV and giving up river u need around 47% pure FE on the turn... 3way i doubt if it is possible ... maybe if the guy is not folding much.... i think i would XF turn (villain has to call flop with BDFD+2O and 55-77 and fold those on the turn pretty much..... then turn bet will have EV of 0,5 )
ofcourse u can make betting QJo profitable on the turn if u will have successful river bluff but in that spot ! but here villain is not folding just enough.......although if we hit our str8 and villain will call us with KT+ ...turn betting EV will be +2bb (so if it was your plan u played it well) firstly my mistake was i plugged just this runout and was playing with EV,FE and etc , then i changed that river card to blank and put different scenarios
here as u i would be also very worried like to be balanced and have good value range and enough bluffs , but looks like in that spot we shouldnt be bluffing unless the villain is huge nit... if we bluff we are just making negative ev play here which decrease our EV significantly... maybe here we should overbet or not bluff...possibly bluffs will be +EV if villain only call KT here... but if he decide to bluff raise again we are in the big ass
river his reasonable folding frequency is between 35-20% on that runout...... which SUXXXXXXXX so i am not really sure what to do...he will fold more than 50% if he was floaty on the flop called BFD and if he will call AT+!!
on that river according to CR EV bluffing AK/AQ lot more better than bluffing hand like QJ... if he calls KT+ bluffing : QJo -15,74bb , AdKd -12,33bb , AXs -8bb
so bluffing qjo is bad cause he possibly can fold QT,QJ so we block his folding range
bluffing AdKd is bad cause we block his folding range KT , but better cause we block AT,A2 his calling range
AdXd so looks like the best bluffing hands... maybe we should only bluff those? if we feel villain loves folding.. if not just give up knowing your profitable turn game plan to barrel FD+ahi is profitable u just need to hit your flush and get value
Your post changed my logic quite a bit. If there are no arguments to it from other users....
hey man , what u mean ? i would also love to read what other users think of my post
I mean i liked it.
I think overbetting is a good and profitable idea here in this spot.
OTT his Range consists of Tx 8x and many Gutter OESD and fdraws he definitly likes to continue. Given his low fold to cbet Range on the Turn he likes to see another card.
So i will start to make the pot big OTT. I like to punish his low fold to cbet freq and all his weak draws.
Left myself w/ 1,5PSB OTR. We need 60% Fold Equity. His Stats shows me that he can fold the river w/ good amount. So he will fold his weak Pairs and his draws.
This alone is a profitable.
I think a good villain knows that his range is capped and he also has many missed draws on the River.
I Dont think u will get AT, KT, QT to fold ever. Because if he is Folding KT and QT he has such a tiny calling range OTR, very exploitable.
...
If I shove my whole Range OTR or only my ValueKombos + AK AQ is player dependent. Both are profitable Situations.
But i think the Best BluffKombos are still AK AQ (AT,KT,QT, opponent more towards draws and w 8x Kombos).
My Play:
Pot Turn - Shove River ... Creates Interessting Dynamik :)
btw in zoom there are not much dynamics(it exists but u are not playing vs particular villain quite often) would that affect your decision about it somehow? (like if we bluff in villain, we will not be meeting him a lot afterwards, so better only to pick very profitable bluffing spots only ye ? or doesnt matter much comparing to standard tables?)
if we get caught bluff shipping we will stop bluffing and just start value overbetting next time?
It depends. When I see he snap calls me with 78 for Example. Than its time to rethink of our strategy.
But on the other side, if he tanks and calls us with AT . Then u created an interested Dynamik and now u are in a Leveling War.
U may be Bluff again with your whole Range, because u think that he thinks.... or you only Bluff w/ AQ AK + ValueKombos.
vs the SnapCall w/ 78 i will only bet my ValueKombos. But this means i will also change my Barreling FQZ on earlier streets.
vs. the tank Call w/ AT - u created an interesting Dynamik - thats all about fun. I Dont Change my Barreling FQZ and also will Bluff Again OTR. The only thing i will maybe change is between Bluff All Hands OTR or Bluff only AK, AQ (depends on Leveling).
No, becasue I think that in this
Szenario this is the Play w/ the most EV. I dont calculated the EV
exactly but i think its close between shoving the whole Range OTR or
only my ValueKombos + AK AQ.
thanks for the very deep analysis, ill analyze this situation in CREV later and post you my thoughts on it. So far you agree on betting turn with this specific hand and giving up right?
Mehhh, even a double barrel with gs+2 overs is questionable vs this station.
As played i think you just have to barrel here to be balanced, or give up and never bluff flop/turn vs him again.
Be the first to add a comment