Missed Nut flush vs Strong but capped range

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Missed Nut flush vs Strong but capped range

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (5 Players) BB: $55.00 (Hero)
UTG: $59.40
CO: $50.00
BN: $45.57
SB: $63.21
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is BB with A 3
UTG folds, CO raises to $1.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.00
Flop ($3.25) K Q 9
Hero checks, CO bets $2.32, Hero raises to $7.30, CO calls $4.98
Turn ($17.85) K Q 9 A
Hero bets $11.31, CO calls $11.31
River ($40.47) K Q 9 A 7
Hero bets $34.89 and is all in, CO calls $29.89 and is all in
Final Pot BB lost and shows a pair of Aces.
CO wins and shows two pair, Aces and Queens.
CO wins $98.25
Rake is $2.00

So on the river there's two missed draws which isn't helping and my value range is thin, probably more importantly my opponents rage is 2 pair or set heavy I don't see him getting ehre with many 1 pair combo's. Check give up here?

what do you think to the turn play too? he still has KJ,KT, QJ,QT we can fold out half of those combo's that don't have flush draws.

7 Comments

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Samu Patronen 5 years, 5 months ago

Both turn and river bet are not very good in my mind, our hand has great showdown value and not very good blockers for bluffing either. I wouldn't really bluff the turn or the river with hands that don't have J or T in them, because those are the essential blockers to have in this situation where villain can have all 16 combos of JT. Check turn, as played check river for sure.

fidelinos 5 years, 5 months ago

Samu,
dont you agree that even the raise on flop is not that strong with FD? I mean its obvious that we dont have 99 KK QQ- we would have 3bet them pre, and we have more combos of FD there and K9 Q9-which on turn are not that strong any more.

belrio42 5 years, 5 months ago

Preflop, you can 3-bet some of the time, but calling is also completely fine.

OTF, both check/calling and check/raising are fine.

On the turn, you just have a marginal made hand (pair of Aces with no kicker). What would you prefer - having bad equity in a large pot or good equity in a small pot? The latter is better.

When you say you want to KJ/KT/QJ/QT -- why do you want to fold out these hands? These hands have something like 25% equity against your hand, so you want to keep these hands in the pot, not make them fold.

So I would tend to check/call turn. Generally, when you have a pair + FD, you should tend to play it like you didn't have a FD (except that you can call almost any bet). Because most of the time you'll just have the pair.

On the river, shoving makes no sense. Check and hope to get to showdown. You might even have to check/fold because the pot is way too big.

BanhMi 5 years, 5 months ago

A2/3/4/5s are hands that I include in my 3betting range BB vs CO as I prefer to play these type of hands more aggressively OOP. As played I think flop is fine, but I would have slowed down after getting called as I don't think I could get 3 streets value and by increasing the pot OTT really leaves me in a tough position if we miss river where we will have to check and maybe face a bet that would leave us in a tough situation.

zinom1 5 years, 5 months ago

I think on river villain should value blockers rather than call a linear range. Given you are repping JT, villain might favor calling KJ instead of KQ or K9 or smthg. Therefore, to counter this strat, jamming some top pair hands might make sense. Im gonna sim this to see if this is a real thing.

DNegs98 5 years, 5 months ago

River is just a set up to perfectly get called by every better hand and fold every worse one, that just seems super thin to me if you're calling it a value bet and I don't really expect to fold any 2 pair here so I'm confused with what the goal is. I feel like, just from seeing this hand, you're resistant to changing between being aggressive or passive within a hand which is something that I actually see fairly often, x/r -> x/c just doesn't exist for a lot of people as a line. That might be overdrawing my conclusions but it's actually an important mind set thing for within hands that a lot of people miss to not get too attached to the concept of your hand as a bluff, value bet or bluff catcher because until the river it's just an equity number against your opponent's range that exists within your range as a whole.

Also I just want to quickly look at just how strong villains range is here and how easy it is for them to find calls (if we assume they don't 3B the flop IP which most people don't). Ignoring your ace blocker because I just want to look at what they are going to call down against you they have 9 AK, 9 AQ (apparently although that seems like a weird flop bet to me but w/e), 9 KQ, 2 K9s, 2 Q9s, 3 AA, 3 KK, 3 QQ, 3 99, 16 JT and then probably some AJ and AT (you block the combos of this with the As but again just this is their perspective for calling down). That 59 combos of 2 pair+ alongside some strong top pairs as well so really don't want to overbluff and if I don't want to overbluff then I'm not turning my top pairs into bluffs which seems like what you're doing here.

Zachary Larson 5 years, 5 months ago

I don't think we should be doing a whole lot of check raising on this board in BB vs CO. I'd rather prefer a call and maybe check raise with our two pairs and gutshots with FD and put the NFDs in our check call

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