You would need a high amount of TTT, AA , AK, KK and A2 in your range to balance out that bluff with that line. I also dont understand your thought process entirely concerning your actual hodling. You pretty much make the potcontrol / bluff catch line OTF and then realisze, your hand is probably not good enough and turn it into an expensive bluff.

Hey deyverpoker,

Preflop is obviously fine.

The flop can go either way. You can bet very small with a big portion of your range or simply x/c. Either action I think would be good.

Turn you definitely have 12 combos of AK that can potentially play this way, but unfortunately when he calls I would simply give up on the river. Your sizing on the turn is relatively large and he is likely to bluff a lot of KX on the flop that now snap call the turn bet. The hands you're primarily trying to get to fold would be TX or XXdd, both of which often fold to your large turn raise in my experience.

Also, if you were choosing to continue bluffing river, hands like AQ no heart/diamond would be ideal. This would be AQcc, AQss, AsQc, AcQs for a total of 4 combos. If your value range is 12 combos of AK (some of which may or may not have c-bet the flop so it could be less than 12 combos) this gives you a bluffing frequency of 25%, which is close to the ~33% needed for your river sizing especially since we may or may not be checking the flop with all AK combos.

thanks brokenstars.

I prefer betting the flop with this hand (bdFD), but I don't mind a XC.
As played, have you thought about leading the turn?

Once you X, you rep a very narrow range, and I don't think you get Kx to fold, so I think it's either a XC or a XF ott (leaning more towards XF, because we block a lot of potential bdoors that barrel here).

As played, this is just a give up otr imo. Some draws missed, you're now even less likely to have 2x, and people just don't like to fold boats, so I would just XF the R.