MIddle Set, Turn Barrel Raised, Whats your move here?

Posted by

Posted by posted in Low Stakes

MIddle Set, Turn Barrel Raised, Whats your move here?

TT is a standard 3bet for me in SB vs. BTN. I am not so worried about limper but he can certainly play a role some of the time. I think the flop bet can be smaller here also but at these stack depths I don't really think sizing up is a bad move. To me the turn is a mandatory bet since a few hands potentially pick up equity in a spot where I block nothing (99, JJ).

What is your reaction when he raises and why?

10 Comments

Loading 10 Comments...

belrio42 6 years ago

My first reaction is: you're very deep. That makes me want to play more conservatively OOP.

Flop bet looks good.

Turn bet also looks good. You want to bet your draws, so you want to bet your sets as well.

When you get min-raised, the only hands which beat you are QQ and J9s. He can have a lot of draws, and he could be raising worse (hands like two pair or a worse set). I would call, and call most rivers.

HawksWin 6 years ago

I know you hate deep stacks ;) I kinda hate it too, but at Ignition, with the clowns in this player pool, I typically just stay there instead of banking and reloading to 100bb.

I agree that calling turn is the superior play but wasn't sure looking this hand over.

akissv7 6 years ago

The BTN is raising an UTG limper so he probably has a better hand then he would steal a pot with such as a broadway hand or a good pair. You 3 bet him and he just calls which makes that his QQ+ and AK become less likely hands for him to have. If villain is a good reg he will call your 3 bet very wide both because your deep stacked and your raise is not that big would make it 15 BB or even more.

Would bet flop bigger more like 2/3-3/4 pot instead of just over 50% villain can easily have any broadway hand and this flop hits broadway hands quit well he is less likely to have a small pair or so.

I like the turn bet you are either way ahead or way behind and you want KJ draws to pay for the next card and also get paid by top pair hands.

Min raises can mean different things such as a monster that wants the pot to grow or top pair with top or good kicker that actually want a cheap show down by taking the aggression away from you. If it is a draw then it is a curious play in my book as he opens the betting and you could potentially raise him of a good hand.
As their are only 3 combos of QQ and 4 combos of J9s so their is not a lot of chance he min-raised a monster as their are so many top pair combos villain can have AQo, KQo, QJs.
The pot will be like ~200 BB on the river and you only have 100 BB left. As I would not fold to a river bet with a set I would just move all-in on the river.

cg15254 6 years ago

My first reaction is to jam turn. There are a lot of hands that pick up equity on the turn that could be raising as a semibluff and a lot of rivers that wouldn't be great to see (a heart, J, 9, A).

I just think you miss out on a lot of value from combo draws and 2 pair type hands that would call a jam on the turn if you just call. If you flat and a heart comes on the river, are you going to check/call? If an offsuit 2 comes on the river do you check and hope villain bluffs at it with his busted draws? Do you have any reads on villain regarding his river bluff frequencies? If a blank does come on the river and you check with the intention of check calling, it would be a nightmare if villain checks back.

As noted above, you're only losing to QQ and J9s, and there are only 10 combos total of those hands. Not to mention I would think villain would sometimes be 4b QQ.

HawksWin 6 years ago

I like jamming turn if I am confident that he is raising stuff like AQ and KQ AND is will to pay off with them. If he only pays off with QQ or J9 here and folds a bunch of TP stuff and flush draws, I don't like jamming so much. I like the fact that I unblock his draw to 2 pair with KQ or AQ which will likely pay off on river so that makes me more inclined to call turn here

Again, this is Ignition, so I would never rule out 22 completely in this spot either. If he has ducks, the sets would wash (3 combos of QQ, 3 combos of 22 and 4 combos of J9s). This leaves a total of 4 nutted combos I am worried about. If he has a flush draw, I really don't want it to fold since two of his/her flush outs would be tainted (Qh and 2h).

cg15254 6 years ago

HawksWin I agree with most of your points, but villain would be almost priced in to call the turn jam with a flush draw regardless, especially if he has a gutter to go with it.

If my math is correct, once villain raises turn, he has 77BB left in his stack. If you jam, the pot Villain can win is 282, so he needs roughly 25% equity to call. It would be a losing play to call with just a naked flush draw, but I think it's close enough villain would call regardless.

Alternatively call turn and check call any non 9 or heart River? (obviously with the exception of the Qh or 2h).

HawksWin 6 years ago

cg15254 Honestly, I feel like I am behind here equity wise more often than not. I think I am 60/40 dog here at minimum. If we give him QQ and J9s for value (7 combos), he needs a balanced value:bluff ratio. So this leaves like KQhh, AQhh, AJhh, AThh, KJhh, QJhh (6 combos, but seems reasonable). If I jam turn, I am going to need a) a significant amount of FE vs. his raising range that I just don't think I have or b) I am going to need them to call wider than the above range. I don't think he ever has overpairs here (I expect a 4b) and I don't think he does this with JJ or 99. So, if he is wider in this spot, I think it will be all AQo & J9o more often and less often with 22 & QT (seems like a stretch). Against that range, I think a turn shove is fine.

It's a weird spot, that why I posted it. If I knew he had AQ, I think the play is to call turn and jam river. If I knew he had KQ, I think the play is to call turn and jam river. If I know he has a straight, I think the play is to call turn and check/fold non board pairing rivers. If he has a flush draw, he is drawing to 7 outs, so I think the play is to ship AND I also think it is fine to call turn and potentially check/fold to heart rivers that don't pair the board.

belrio42 6 years ago

Villain min-raising top pair 200BB deep looks rather weird to me. I suppose he could be trying to get a cheap showdown, but it's very dangerous.

I would put Villain on a draw (something like a bad gutshot or flush draw) or two pair+ more often.

About the comments above for getting value from a draw: it seems to me that you get more value from a draw by calling rather than jamming. Villain is not getting the right price to call with many of his draws. Calling instead of jamming also allows him the chance to bluff on river.

However, here's an argument for jamming turn. One can also look at this situation from a range perspective. Do we want the ability to jam certain draws over a 3-bet on the turn? These will probably be some nut flush draws and maybe something gutshot which is not getting the right price to call. In that case, we probably have to jam our middle set as well to be balanced, because the only better hands we could jam are J9s and QQ.

Samu Patronen 6 years ago

Turn bet seems a bit small, I'd make it bigger in order to get more value/protection with this type of hand on this type of board. Againts a turn raise just shove. Minraise is pretty fishy so I'm not very worried. Calling seems weak to me and makes our life harder aswell.

Be the first to add a comment

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy